Policy analysis of greenhouse gases’ Mitigation in Iran Energy Sector Using System Dynamics Approach

Abstract

The present study aims to shed new light in the energy supply planning in Iran by adopting a system dynamics (SD) model, so as to provide a quantitative assessment of each option of supply allocation policy, the long-term greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions' trends of the country as a whole. This paper thus presents the projections of future GHG emissions' trend under various options of supply policies for a time span of 15 years. The GHG emissions are projected to reach 6,20,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (TCO 2 e) by the year 2021 if the existing supply policy options are followed. 10 different scenarios considering the major variable of "economic sanctions" -which have recently affected Iran's economy-are developed. By running different scenarios, several fundamental dynamic behaviors can be seen explicitly. The results show that the more allocation of supply resources to the power plants will lessen the GHG emissions in the long run; however this option is quite sensitive to the economic sanctions, so that in case of more economic sanctions, it is not a good decision to be made. More gas injection into the oil reservoirs and less gas exports, is highly efficient in the short term, but its relative effectiveness in not substantial in the long run. Increasing the percentage of oil and gas allocated to the industrial sector, declines cumulative GHG in the long run. The GHG emissions from the power plants' scenario are less in comparison to those from the injection and industry scenarios in the modeling period. However, combined scenarios in the both level of the sanctions are the ideal.

Scenario planning of electricity supply system: case of Iran

“…It is a decision-making research that introduces technology which could affect the sustainable power supply system in Iran. Kazemi and Hosseinzadeh (2016) developed 10 different scenarios considering the major variable of "economic sanctions" for policy analysis of greenhouse gases' mitigation in Iran Energy Sector. The results show that more allocation of supply resources to the power plants will lessen the greenhouse gas emissions in the long run; however, this option is quite sensitive to the economic sanctions.…”

Wastewater purification from Rhodamine B and Gemifeloxacine by graphene oxide/pectin/ferrite nanocomposite: A novel molecular dynamics simulation for experimental contaminants removing

“…The octagonal place in the spinel structure is a widely used nanocomposite carrier. It can simplify high‐density electrons generated by fast and reversible redox reactions, which are related to Ni 2+/3+ and Fe 2+/3+ redox couples (Hosseinabadi‐Farahani, Hosseini‐Monfared, & Mahmoodi, 2015; Hosseinabadi‐Farahani, Mahmoodi, & Hosseini‐Monfared, 2015; Kazemi & Hosseinzadeh, 2016; Lee et al, 2019; Mahmoodi et al, 2017; Mahmoodi & Maghsoodi, 2015; Mahmoodi & Mokhtari‐Shourijeh, 2016a, 2016b; Najafi & Rajabi, 2015; Silipigni et al, 2018).…”

Evolutionary Game Analysis on Local Governments and Airlines’ Behavioral Strategies in China under Carbon Trading

“…Zu Y. et al [4] proposed a two-echelon supply chain, consisting of one manufacturer and one supplier, to increase sustainable profits using the Stackelberg differential game. Meanwhile, Kazemi and Hosseinzadeh [5] analyzed the strategic choices of multiple stakeholders in mitigating the greenhouse effect using game theory.…”