PM2.5 forecasting in Coyhaique, the most polluted city in the Americas

Pérez, Patricio; Menares, Camilo; Ramírez, Camilo

doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100608

Cited by 29 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…The primary source of contribution is wood smoke (almost 60%), followed in decreasing order by diesel, gasoline and natural gas emissions (Villalobos et al, 2015). In contrast, in Coyhaique, the southern city most polluted by PM2.5 in the American region, the primary source of emission (99%) of PM2.5 is residential firewood combustion for cooking and heating (Perez et al, 2020). Various studies in developed countries indicate that wood smoke is the most significant source of exposure to particles during the winter months, originating from residential stoves (Maykut et al, 2003;Naeher et al, 2007).…”

Section: Accepted Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Santiago is located in a basin between the Andes Range and the Coast Range (33°27′S 70°40′W). In both localities, the topographic configuration of the basin contributes to the low vertical dispersion of air pollutants during winter, resulting in rapid increases of particulate matter, a phenomenon known as atmospheric blocking (Perez et al, 2020;Yun and Yoo, 2019).…”

Section: Urban Municipalities Studiedmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cancer Burden Disease Attributable to PM2.5 and Health Risk by PM2.5-bound Toxic Species in Two Urban Chilean Municipalities

Muñoz-Ibañéz

Maldonado-Alcaíno

et al. 2022

Aerosol Air Qual. Res.

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This study aimed to estimate the environmental cancer disease burden in adults attributable to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) exposure using Ostro's function methodology, and health risk indexes for particle-bound toxic chemicals through hazard quotients (HQ, HI) and carcinogenic risk (CR, CRI) indexes from EPA guidelines, of two urban Chilean Municipalities: Coyhaique and Independencia. Quantification of chemical species (OC, EC, metals, and PAHs) was done at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, USA. Modern carbon in OC and EC analysis showed that the principal source of PM2.5 emission in Coyhaique was firewood burning compared with Independencia. The total PAHs and B[a]P concentrations were 6.3 and 8.9 times higher in Coyhaique than in Independencia. In contrast, As and Pb levels were significantly greater in Independencia. The HI was 14.5 and 2.37 times the limit considered acceptable (HI > 1) in Coyhaique and Independencia, explained 92.45% by B[a]P and 66.99% by As, respectively. CRI exceeded the threshold (1 x 10 -6 ) in Coyhaique and Independencia, explained by As (75.38%) plus B[a]P (20.30%) and As (97.01%). The attributable fraction (AF) of deaths due to lung cancer from long-term exposure to PM2.5 reached 54% (95% CI: 25-72) in Coyhaique vs. 43% (95% CI: 19 -46) in Independencia. The AF for cardiopulmonary cancer were 40% (95% CI: 17 -57) and 32% (95% CI: 12 -46), respectively. A relevant fraction of the cancer cases and potential expected adverse effects would be attributable to long-term exposure to PM2.5 and the presence of chemical compounds bound to the particles. These results deserve further study to help guide policy in different environments, mainly carcinogenic PM2.5-bound toxic species from other emission sources, particularly firewood burning.

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Section: Accepted Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Urban Municipalities Studiedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cancer Burden Disease Attributable to PM2.5 and Health Risk by PM2.5-bound Toxic Species in Two Urban Chilean Municipalities

Muñoz-Ibañéz

Maldonado-Alcaíno

et al. 2022

Aerosol Air Qual. Res.

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“…The economic activities of humankind have had an irreversible impact on ecosystems, manifesting as frequent environmental pollution events [1][2][3]. Ecological compensation, also known as payment for ecosystem services (PES), has been widely regarded as one efficient solution for ecological conservation [4,5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Ecosystem Service Values of Watershed and Ecological Compensation Scheme Considering Its Realization in Spatial Planning

Wang

Zhang

2022

Sustainability

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A reasonable ecological compensation scheme for watersheds is beneficial for water resource protection and ecological sustainability. The existing literature has few watershed ecological compensation (WEC) schemes based on long-term observation and large spatial scale analysis of ecosystem service value (ESV) and considering its realization in spatial planning. Therefore, in order to establish a WEC scheme and integrate it into spatial planning, we take the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project (MRSNWDP), a water resource area protecting the water resources at a huge local economic development cost, as a case study, and calculate the change trend and change range of the watershed’s total ESV from 1990 to 2015, thus, forming the WEC scheme. The results show the total ESV in the study area shows a slight downward fluctuation trend from 1990 to 2015, decreasing by 3310.70. The total ESV in most types of ecosystem service (ES) functions is relatively reduced except for the increase in functions of water conservation, waste treatment, and entertainment and culture. In addition, the change rate of total ESV has been in a high-value agglomeration, and the ES capabilities have been increasing since 2000, while the growth trend of the ES capabilities has been weak, and the high-value agglomeration has been expanding from the core area of Danjiangkou reservoir to the upstream and surrounding areas since 2005. We formulate a WEC scheme according to the partition idea of spatial planning that the priority compensation area accounts for 25.34% of the total study area, and the second priority compensation area, the general compensation area, and the potential compensation area account for 25.34%, 47.48%, and 12.80%, respectively.

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“…The rapid development of industrialization and urbanization has led to different degrees of air pollution in many countries and regions (Perez et al, 2020;Xiao et al, 2020;Sahu and Kota, 2017). The energy-intensive and coal-fired economy in China has led to a dramatic deterioration in air quality over the past three decades (Piovani, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implementation and application of Ensemble Optimal Interpolation on an operational chemistry weather model for improving PM_2.5 and visibility predictions

Wang

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. The data assimilation technique is one of the important ways to reduce the uncertainty of atmospheric chemistry model input and improve the model forecast accuracy. In this paper, an ensemble optimal interpolation assimilation (EnOI) system for a regional online chemical weather numerical forecasting system (GRAPES_Meso5.1/CUACE) is developed for operational use and efficient updating of the initial fields of chemical components. A heavy haze episode in eastern China was selected, and the key factors affecting the EnOI, such as localization length-scale, ensemble size, and assimilation moment, were calibrated by sensitivity experiments. The impacts of assimilating ground-based PM2.5 observations on the model chemical initial field and PM2.5, visibility forecasts were investigated. The results show that assimilation of PM2.5 significantly reduces the uncertainty of the initial PM2.5 field. The mean error and root mean square error (RMSE) of initial PM2.5 for mainland China have all decreased by more than 75 %, and the correlation coefficient could be improved to more than 0.95. Even greater improvements appear in North China. For the forecast fields, assimilation of PM2.5 improves PM2.5 and visibility forecasts throughout the lead time window of 24 h. The PM2.5 RMSE can be reduced by 10 %–21 % within 24 h, but the assimilation effect is most obvious in the first 12 h. The assimilation moment chosen at 1200 UTC is more effective than that at 0000 UTC for improving the forecast, because the discrepancy between simulation and observation at 1200 UTC is larger than that at 0000 UTC, indicating the assimilation efficiency will be higher when the bias of the model is higher. Assimilation of PM2.5 also improves visibility forecast accuracy significantly. When the PM2.5 increment is negative, it corresponds to an increase in visibility, and when the PM2.5 analysis increment is positive, visibility decreases. It is worth noting that the improvement of visibility forecasting by assimilating PM2.5 is more obvious in the light pollution period than in the heavy pollution period, since visibility is much more affected by humidity during the heavy pollution period accompanied by low or extreme low visibility. To get further visibility improvement, especially for extreme low visibility during severe haze pollution, not only PM2.5 but also relative humidity should be simultaneously assimilated as well.

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PM2.5 forecasting in Coyhaique, the most polluted city in the Americas

Cited by 29 publications

References 14 publications

Cancer Burden Disease Attributable to PM2.5 and Health Risk by PM2.5-bound Toxic Species in Two Urban Chilean Municipalities

Cancer Burden Disease Attributable to PM2.5 and Health Risk by PM2.5-bound Toxic Species in Two Urban Chilean Municipalities

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Ecosystem Service Values of Watershed and Ecological Compensation Scheme Considering Its Realization in Spatial Planning

Implementation and application of Ensemble Optimal Interpolation on an operational chemistry weather model for improving PM_2.5 and visibility predictions

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PM2.5 forecasting in Coyhaique, the most polluted city in the Americas

Cited by 29 publications

References 14 publications

Cancer Burden Disease Attributable to PM2.5 and Health Risk by PM2.5-bound Toxic Species in Two Urban Chilean Municipalities

Cancer Burden Disease Attributable to PM2.5 and Health Risk by PM2.5-bound Toxic Species in Two Urban Chilean Municipalities

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Ecosystem Service Values of Watershed and Ecological Compensation Scheme Considering Its Realization in Spatial Planning

Implementation and application of Ensemble Optimal Interpolation on an operational chemistry weather model for improving PM2.5 and visibility predictions

Contact Info

Product

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Implementation and application of Ensemble Optimal Interpolation on an operational chemistry weather model for improving PM_2.5 and visibility predictions