Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming

Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Henry, Gregory H. R.; Hollister, Robert D.; Björk, Robert G.; Boulanger-Lapointe, Noémie; Cooper, Elisabeth J.; Cornelissen, Johannes H. C.; Day, Thomas A.; Dorrepaal, Ellen; Elumeeva, Tatiana G.; Gill, Mike; Gould, William A.; Harte, John; Hik, David S.; Hofgaard, Annika; Johnson, David R.; Johnstone, Jill F.; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg S.; Jorgenson, Janet C.; Klanderud, Kari; Klein, Julia A.; Koh, Saewan; Kudo, Gaku; Lara, Mark J.; Lévesque, Esther; Magnússon, Borgþór; May, Jeremy L.; Mercado‐Díaz, Joel A.; Michelsen, Anders; Molau, Ulf; Myers‐Smith, Isla H.; Oberbauer, Steven F.; Онипченко, В. Г.; Rixen, Christian; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Shaver, Gaius R.; Spasojevic, Marko J.; Pórhallsdóttir, Póra Ellen; Tolvanen, Anne; Troxler, Tiffany G.; Tweedie, C. E.; Villareal, Sandra; Wahren, Carl-Henrik; Walker, Xanthe J.; Webber, P. J.; Welker, Jeffrey M.; Wipf, Sonja

doi:10.1038/nclimate1465

Cited by 816 publications

(990 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Consistent with our simulations, a significant proportion of plots showed increase in plant canopy height, an increased overall abundance of shrubs and decreased coverage of bare ground; these trends could be explained by increasing summer temperatures. However, trends for deciduous shrubs, herbs and mosses were less homogeneous, exhibiting both negative and positive trends at different locations, some of this variability being attributable to inter-site differences in moisture, presence or absence of permafrost, and the baseline temperature regime of the site; for example, deciduous shrub cover increased with warming in (colder) high-Arctic sites, but decreased with warming in low-Arctic sites (Elmendorf et al 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…This temperature-nutrient effect cannot explain the simulated increase in shrub abundance in LPJ-GUESS, as the model does not include nutrient cycling; community changes in our study are primarily mediated by increased competition for light as the productivity and density of vegetation increases. Elmendorf et al (2012) analysed changes in community structure at 158 tundra vegetation plots spread over much of the Arctic (excluding Russia), surveyed between 1980 and 2010. Consistent with our simulations, a significant proportion of plots showed increase in plant canopy height, an increased overall abundance of shrubs and decreased coverage of bare ground; these trends could be explained by increasing summer temperatures.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A further issue concerns the heterogeneity of responses seen in different studies and in different parts of the Arctic (e.g. Callaghan et al 2011;Elmendorf et al 2012). While temperature regimes are obviously a major driver of ecosystem structure and function in polar regions, other factors such as water balance, geology, soil type, trophic interactions, as well as anthropogenic management and land use also play an important role, and in some situations the combination of several drivers may lead to 'counterintuitive' changes, even over a period when temperatures are rising consistently and markedly.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Important lines of evidence include positive trends in surface greenness and photosynthetic activity inferred from satellite data (Tucker et al 2001;Bunn and Goetz 2006;Bhatt et al 2010;Beck and Goetz 2011), advancement of elevational and latitudinal treelines (Sonesson and Hoogesteger 1983;Kullman 2002;Harsch et al 2009;Van Bogaert et al 2010, 2011, and an increased cover, abundance and stature of shrubs in tundra areas (Kullman 2002;Jia et al 2003;Tømmervik et al 2004;Tape et al 2006;Hedenås et al 2011;Rundqvist et al 2011). Despite numerous local exceptions, the weight of evidence from observational studies suggests that, in general, Arctic vegetation is responding to rising temperatures through increases in productivity, density, cover and stature of vegetation and, in many areas, an increase in woody biomass and the representation of trees and shrubs (Post et al 2009;Callaghan et al 2011;Elmendorf et al 2012). These findings are qualitatively consistent with expectations based on the results of tundra warming experiments (Chapin et al 1995;Michelsen et al 1996;Arft et al 1999;Graglia et al 2001;Walker et al 2006;Olsrud et al 2010), and simulations using vegetation models (Kaplan et al 2003;Smith et al 2008a;Wolf et al 2008a;Wramneby et al 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling Tundra Vegetation Response to Recent Arctic Warming

Miller

Smith

2012

AMBIO

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The Arctic land area has warmed by [1°C in the last 30 years and there is evidence that this has led to increased productivity and stature of tundra vegetation and reduced albedo, effecting a positive (amplifying) feedback to climate warming. We applied an individual-based dynamic vegetation model over the Arctic forced by observed climate and atmospheric CO 2 for 1980-2006. Averaged over the study area, the model simulated increases in primary production and leaf area index, and an increasing representation of shrubs and trees in vegetation. The main underlying mechanism was a warming-driven increase in growing season length, enhancing the production of shrubs and trees to the detriment of shaded ground-level vegetation. The simulated vegetation changes were estimated to correspond to a 1.75 % decline in snow-season albedo. Implications for modelling future climate impacts on Arctic ecosystems and for the incorporation of biogeophysical feedback mechanisms in Arctic system models are discussed.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Modelling Tundra Vegetation Response to Recent Arctic Warming

Miller

Smith

2012

AMBIO

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“…Further, changes in ecosystem species composition due to changing climate could cause major shifts in the canopy emission factor (ε). Increasing temperatures have caused an increase in woody shrubs in areas that are currently tundra ecosystems (Elmendorf et al, 2012). The shift towards Betula was observed in a warming experiment near the Toolik Field Station (Hobbie and Chapin, 1998), where the aboveground biomass of Betula nana increased almost two fold.…”

Section: Global Climate Change and Future Emissions From Arctic Ecosymentioning

confidence: 91%

Isoprene emissions from a tundra ecosystem

et al. 2013

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Whole-system fluxes of isoprene from a moist acidic tundra ecosystem and leaf-level emission rates of isoprene from a common species (Salix pulchra) in that same ecosystem were measured during three separate field campaigns. The field campaigns were conducted during the summers of 2005, 2010 and 2011 and took place at the Toolik Field Station (68.6° N, 149.6° W) on the north slope of the Brooks Range in Alaska, USA. The maximum rate of whole-system isoprene flux measured was over 1.2 mg C m−2 h−1 with an air temperature of 22 °C and a PAR level over 1500 μmol m−2 s−1. Leaf-level isoprene emission rates for S. pulchra averaged 12.4 nmol m−2 s−1 (27.4 μg C gdw−1 h−1) extrapolated to standard conditions (PAR = 1000 μmol m−2 s−1 and leaf temperature = 30 °C). Leaf-level isoprene emission rates were well characterized by the Guenther algorithm for temperature with published coefficients, but less so for light. Chamber measurements from a nearby moist acidic tundra ecosystem with little S. pulchra emitted significant amounts of isoprene, but at lower rates (0.45 mg C m−2 h−1) suggesting other significant isoprene emitters. Comparison of our results to predictions from a global model found broad agreement, but a detailed analysis revealed some significant discrepancies. An atmospheric chemistry box model predicts that the observed isoprene emissions have a significant impact on Arctic atmospheric chemistry, including a reduction of hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations. Our results support the prediction that isoprene emissions from Arctic ecosystems will increase with global climate change

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Modeling permafrost thaw and ecosystem carbon cycle under annual and seasonal warming at an Arctic tundra site in Alaska

Luo

Natali

et al. 2014

JGR Biogeosciences

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Permafrost thaw and its impacts on ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics are critical for predicting global climate change. It remains unclear whether annual and seasonal warming (winter or summer) affect permafrost thaw and ecosystem C balance differently. It is also required to compare the short-term stepwise warming and long-term gradual warming effects. This study validated a land surface model, the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange model, at an Alaskan tundra site, and then used it to simulate permafrost thaw and ecosystem C flux under annual warming, winter warming, and summer warming. The simulations were conducted under stepwise air warming (2°C yr À1 ) during 2007-2011, and gradual air warming (0.04°C yr À1 ) during 2007-2056. We hypothesized that all warming treatments induced greater permafrost thaw, and larger ecosystem respiration than plant growth thus shifting the ecosystem C sink to C source. Results only partially supported our hypothesis. Climate warming further enhanced C sink under stepwise (6-15%) and gradual (1-8%) warming scenarios as followed by annual warming, winter warming, and summer warming. This is attributed to disproportionally low temperature increase in soil (0.1°C) in comparison to air warming (2°C). In a separate simulation, a greater soil warming (1.5°C under winter warming) led to a net ecosystem C source (i.e., 18 g C m À2 yr À1 ). This suggests that warming tundra can potentially provide positive feedbacks to global climate change. As a key variable, soil temperature and its dynamics, especially during wintertime, need to be carefully studied under global warming using both modeling and experimental approaches.

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Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming

Cited by 816 publications

References 28 publications

Modelling Tundra Vegetation Response to Recent Arctic Warming

Modelling Tundra Vegetation Response to Recent Arctic Warming

Isoprene emissions from a tundra ecosystem

Modeling permafrost thaw and ecosystem carbon cycle under annual and seasonal warming at an Arctic tundra site in Alaska

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