Plausible energy demand patterns in a growing global economy with climate policy

Abstract

Reducing energy demand has become a key mechanism for limiting climate change, but practical problems with large energy savings in a growing global economy and, importantly, in its lower-income parts remain. Using new energy-GDP data, we show that adopting the same near-term low-energy growth trajectory in all regions in IPCC scenarios limiting global warming to 1.5°C presents an unresolved policy challenge.We discuss this challenge of combining energy demand reductions with robust income growth for the 6.4 billion people in middle and low income countries in light of economic development's reliance on industrialisation. Our results highlight the importance of addressing limits to energy demand reduction in integrated assessment modelling when regional economic development is powered by industrialization and instead exploring faster energy supply decarbonization. Insights from development economics and other disciplines could help generate plausible assumptions given the financial, investment and stability issues involved.Limiting global warming to 2°C or even 1.5°C requires carbon emissions from energy to reach net zero by around mid-century 1 . Reducing energy demand is considered a key mechanism for emissions reduction and alleviates the burden on the two other principal measures: decarbonisation of the energy supply, and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) 2 . However, energy is key for the economy. The implications for global and regional economic growth of reducing energy demand are insufficiently explored but central in integrated assessment models (IAMs).Scenarios from IAMs synthesized in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C imply that absolute decoupling (i.e. reducing energy consumption while growing GDP) is both readily feasible and inexpensive 3 . The report presents 90 scenarios limiting the temperature increase to 1.5°C by 2100. In the near term, all continue or exceed historically

Roadmap to sustainable carbon-neutral energy and environment: can we cross the barrier of biomass productivity?

“…4 and 5a and 5b ) (REN21 2018 ; Rulli et al 2016 ). It is estimated that ethanol derived from sugarcane and advanced biofuels can support the energy demand of transportation sector by providing 9.3% of total transportation fuels by 2030 which could further grow up to 27% by 2050 (IEA, World energy outlook 2009 ; IEA, Energy technology perspectives 2010 ; Semieniuk et al 2021 ). Notably, the USA set a record for renewable energy production in year 2020 despite the global crisis of COVID-19 which justifies its tag as a global leader in renewable energy production (McLaughlin and Bird 2021 ).…”

“…Therefore, a continuous increase in the number of human being has an obvious connection with a consistent increase in the demand for energy (Pathak et al 2017 ). Global energy demand has immensely increased in the last four decades and estimated to further increase by more than 85% by 2040 (Jones and Mayfield 2012 ; Semieniuk et al 2021 ). The total energy supply has increased tremendously since 1971 and fossil fuels are still the main source of energy supply (Sayre 2010 ; Semieniuk et al 2021 ).…”

“…Global energy demand has immensely increased in the last four decades and estimated to further increase by more than 85% by 2040 (Jones and Mayfield 2012 ; Semieniuk et al 2021 ). The total energy supply has increased tremendously since 1971 and fossil fuels are still the main source of energy supply (Sayre 2010 ; Semieniuk et al 2021 ). Therefore, an unprecedented increase in the demand for energy will result in the consumption of all major fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural gas (Jones and Mayfield 2012 ; Parsaeimehr et al 2015 ; Semieniuk et al 2021 ).…”

“…The total energy supply has increased tremendously since 1971 and fossil fuels are still the main source of energy supply (Sayre 2010 ; Semieniuk et al 2021 ). Therefore, an unprecedented increase in the demand for energy will result in the consumption of all major fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural gas (Jones and Mayfield 2012 ; Parsaeimehr et al 2015 ; Semieniuk et al 2021 ). Fossil fuels provide energy to various sectors of society, including residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation.…”

“…The current average atmospheric CO 2 concentration is around 409 ppm which crossed 400 ppm level in late 2013 (Gao et al 2019 ; Tans 2017 ). The fossil fuel utilization and GHG emission are interrelated and their respective consumption and emission will further increase given the scenario of a continuous increase in global population and economic developments (Semieniuk et al 2021 ). Thus, overexploitation of limited resources of energy prevents the sustainable supply of energy while simultaneously deteriorate the quality of the environment by adding CO 2 and other pollutants.…”