Planning the Netherlands' Water Resources

Goeller, B. F.; Abraham, Sarin; Abrahamse, Allan; Bigelow, James H.; Bolten, J. G.; Ferranti, David M. De; Haven, Joseph; Jaquette, David L.; Katz, Norman; Kirkwood, T. F.; Petruschell, Robert; Repnau, Tiina; Stucker, James P.; Walker, Warren E.; Wegner, Louis H.; Pulles, J. W.; Dorsman, W. A.; Groen, H.; Sprong, T. A.; Watering, B. G. M. van de; Veen, Meinaard A.; Baan, P.J.A.; Baarse, G.; Beek, E. van; Dijkman, J.; Gameren, J. van; Los, F.J.; Koenis, J.; Miedema, G.; Smits, J.G.C.; Rooij, N. M. de

doi:10.1287/inte.15.1.3

Cited by 22 publications

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“…Nevertheless, it offers an important opportunity for further growth from a relatively solid point of departure. An excellent example of this work is the project that studied policy issues related to water management in the Netherlands (Goeller et al 1985); it received outstanding recognition in a recent competition sponsored by the TIMS College on the Practice of Management Science. As this sort of work comes to be dominated more by social variables than by technological ones, it is usually called policy analysis in the United States, but-unfortunately for operations research-its domain has been claimed by a new professional society and some established journals.…”

Section: Conceptual Foundations For Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

OR Forum—Presidents' Symposium: Science and Professionalism in Operations Research

Miser¹

1987

Operations Research

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Section: Conceptual Foundations For Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

OR Forum—Presidents' Symposium: Science and Professionalism in Operations Research

Miser¹

1987

Operations Research

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“…Figure 1 shows our gen. eral approach, indicating the stages of analysis that take place after problem formulation. Goeller et al [1983] describe the complete project in detail, and Goeller et al [1985] give a summary of the project. In the remainder of this paper we summarize a portion of the first stage of the analysis: the screening of technical and managerial tactics.…”

Section: Sta•les Of Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Screening tactics in a water management policy analysis for the Netherlands

Walker¹,

Veen²

1987

Water Resources Research

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Large policy studies generally involve too many alternative policies to examine each in detail. As a result, such studies often include a step in which policy options (tactics) that are clearly unattractive are screened out. The output from this step is a small list of tactics that deserve a more thorough evaluation. We describe the screening of tactics to change the movement and storage of water in the lakes and waterways of the Netherlands. This analysis was part of a larger study to help the Dutch government develop a new water management policy. The screening process for each tactic involved obtaining an upper bound on the expected annual benefits from the tactic under various assumptions about future water demands (UB) and comparing this upper bound with the tactic's annualized fixed cost (AFC). If the AFC was less than the UB, the tactic was considered promising and was retained for further analysis. If not, the tactic was screened out. Results from the screening analysis informed policy decisions that will avoid investment expenditures of hundreds of millions of dollars and will reduce agricultural damage by about $15 million/year.

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“…Figure 1 shows our general approach, indicating the stages of analysis that take place after problem f o rmu 1 at ion. Goeller et al (1983) describe the complete project in detail, and Goeller and the PAWN Team (1985) give a summary of the project. In the remainder of the paper we summarize a portion of Phe first stage of the analysis: the screening of technical and managerial tactics.…”

Section: The Stages Of Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

The Use of Screening in the Pawn Study

Walker

1986

Impact Assessment

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In most policy analysis studies there are a large number of alternative policies and a large number of impacts to be considered. Time and budget constraints make it impossible to calculate all the impacts for all of the alternatives As a result, such studies often include a step (which we call screening) in which a large number of policy options(tactics) are evaluated in terms of a small number of impacts in order to screen out those tactics that are clearly not attractive. The screening method is often implicit and non-scientific. This paper describes the systematic approach to screening that was used in the PAWN study. A two stage process was used. In the initial screening step, a tactic's cost was compared with an estimate of the maxiqpm benefit that any tactic could conceivably produce when applied for the same purpose. Only the tactics whose costs were less than the maximum benefits survived to be evaluated in the next step. The second screening step involved obtaining an upper bound on the expected annual benefits from the tactic under various assumptions about future demands for surface water, and comparing this upper bound with a measure of the annual cost of the tactic --the tactic's annualized fixed cost. If the annualized fixed cost was less than the upper bound on the expected annual benefits, the tactic was considered promising, and was retained for further analysis. If not, the tactic was screened out. The benefits considered in the screening analysis were (1) reductions in agriculture shortage losses, benefits from a tactic was obtained by taking a weighted average of the estimated benefits in four years of varying dryness. The weights were based on the probabilities of occurrence of the various types of years. In general, we found that, unless the demand for surface water increases significantly above current levels, there are relatively few tactics that are worth considering further. In the case of increased demand for surface water, we found a number of promising tactics. Most of them were small, inexpensive regional tactics. Almost all of the large, expensive, national tactics (some having investment costs of over $ 100 million that had been under discussion in The Netherlands for many years) were screened out.

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Planning the Netherlands' Water Resources

Cited by 22 publications

References 0 publications

OR Forum—Presidents' Symposium: Science and Professionalism in Operations Research

OR Forum—Presidents' Symposium: Science and Professionalism in Operations Research

Screening tactics in a water management policy analysis for the Netherlands

The Use of Screening in the Pawn Study

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