Planning Models for the Distribution of Acute-Care Bed Services in the Sydney and Hunter Regions, Australia

Gibberd, Robert; Hall, Nathan; Gibbs, Carter B.; Hall, Jane

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-69939-9_237

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 2 publications

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“…The assumption of full resource utilization implied the specification of destination-or attraction-constrained models (Gibberd, et al, 1984; Leonardi and Tadei, 1984;Mayhew, 1984Mayhew, ,1986Stone, 1984;Taket and Mayhew, 1981). In this approach total hospital demand could not exceed capacity and patient availability, or A,, and set proportional to the population of the origin zones.…”

Section: Gravity Model Applications In Health Carementioning

confidence: 99%

Gravity Model Applications in Health Planning: Analysis of an Urban Hospital Market*

Lowe

Sen

1996

Journal of Regional Science

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In this paper a gravity model is formulated to model a hospital patient flow system. Both spatial and nonspatial measures of separation are used to estimate the model. Travel time was found to provide improved fits over linear distance in modeling patient flow behavior. Transformations of travel time (square root and log) were found to improve model performance further. Model diagnostics suggested additional spatial separation measurw, separation measure parameters demonstrated stability over time. The model is used to forecast the effects of health care financing reform and hospital closure on patient flows in an urban hospital market. Universal health coverage was found to dramatically improve access to hospital services for lower income patient populations. Hospitals at risk for closure were forecast to receive increased patient flows. Medical school hospitals are expected to lose patients after implementation of health reform, with important implications for graduate medical education. Hospital closures were shown to have negative effects on access to services in poor neighborhoods, but relatively little effect on access in the system as a whole.

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Section: Gravity Model Applications In Health Carementioning

confidence: 99%

Gravity Model Applications in Health Planning: Analysis of an Urban Hospital Market*

Lowe

Sen

1996

Journal of Regional Science

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Predicting Patient Flows and Hospital Case-Mix

Mayhew¹,

Gibberd

Hall³

1986

Environ Plan A

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In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in the spatial modelling of health care services: to locate services in a more equitable and efficient manner; to cope with the consequences of structural change in demography and accessibility to services; to examine the interactions between different services over space and time. In this paper, one particular spatial model used for analysing impact on patient flows, catchment populations, and other key variables resulting from changes in supply, demand, or accessibility is examined in depth. Used in several countries for planning purposes, the model was originally developed in 1979 by the Operational Research Service of the Department of Health and Social Security in the United Kingdom, for the London Health Planning Consortium. It was later refined at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. In the present study the robustness of prediction is tested on four versions of the basic model developed at the University of Newcastle, Australia, in 1984 and applied to data from the Sydney Metropolitan Region. Key outputs from the model are examined and the extent to which it correctly predicts changes in service levels over a three-year period in the case of five different acute clinical specialties is shown. To conclude the paper, the technical details of case-mix model are presented, which combines different acute service categories with the spatial dimension to provide a more comprehensive framework for predicting and analysing the behaviour of, and interactions between, supply and demand.

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Planning Models for the Distribution of Acute-Care Bed Services in the Sydney and Hunter Regions, Australia

Cited by 2 publications

References 2 publications

Gravity Model Applications in Health Planning: Analysis of an Urban Hospital Market*

Gravity Model Applications in Health Planning: Analysis of an Urban Hospital Market*

Predicting Patient Flows and Hospital Case-Mix

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