Planning for smallpox outbreaks

Ferguson, Neil M.; Keeling, Matthew James; Edmunds, W. John; Gani, Raymond; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Anderson, Roy M.; Leach, Stephen

doi:10.1038/nature02007

Cited by 317 publications

(280 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…A recent review article (Ferguson et al, 2003) identified several ways in which social structure has been introduced to smallpox models. A common approach is to define subpopulations based on age or socio-economic factors or, in patch models, geographic factors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of network clustering and assortativity on epidemic behaviour

Badham

Stocker

2010

Theoretical Population Biology

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of network clustering and assortativity on epidemic behaviour

Badham

Stocker

2010

Theoretical Population Biology

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“…We get s k = δ/γ which is a turning point of the random function in (9). From (10), we can see that, for every k = 1, .…”

Section: The Effect Of Randomness On the Size Of An Epidemicmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The SIR epidemic model has been used in different forms for studying epidemiological processes such as the spread of HIV 7 , influenza 8 and even smallpox 9 . Indeed, there are various forms of the SIR model including SEIR, SIS, SIRS, and SVIR 4 .…”

Section: The Sir Epidemic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical simulations of an SIR epidemic model with random initial states

Omar¹,

Hasan²

2013

ScienceAsia

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When the initial state of an epidemic is uncertain, mathematical descriptions of that epidemic in terms of initial conditions must be modified by regarding these initial conditions as random variables having particular distribution functions. In this paper we assume a beta distribution as the initial proportion of infected in an SIR epidemic model. Numerical simulations are carried out on the various classes of the model as the uncertainties are propagated. The probability density functions of the random solutions of these classes over time are also calculated numerically. Some properties of the random solution and the effect of the parameters of the beta distribution on the behaviour of the epidemic are investigated.

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“…This concern has been reflected in studies that model and evaluate possible response policies against smallpox [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. A review of recent smallpox models, including a classification, is presented by Furgeson et al [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Social Mixing Controls on the Spread of Smallpox—A Two-Level Model

Kress

2005

Health Care Manage Sci

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Abstract.Responding to a possible bioterror attack of Smallpox has become a major concern to governments, local public officials and health authorities. This concern has been reflected in numerous studies that model and evaluate possible response strategies. Many of these studies consider only vaccination policies and assume homogeneous mixing, where all instances of contacts in the population are equally likely. Such a mixing pattern is rather unlikely to represent population interaction in a modern urban setting, which typically is separated into households on the one hand, and into daily meeting sites such as schools and offices, on the other hand. In this paper we develop a two-level social interaction model where an individual moves back and forth between home and a daily meeting site, possibly passing through a general meeting site such as mass transit system or other crowded areas. Based on the model, we evaluate the effect of social mixing controls, situational awareness of the public health system and mass vaccination on the spread of smallpox. It is shown that mixing controls and alertness of the response system may have a significant impact on the spread of the epidemic. Some policy recommendations are discussed.

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Planning for smallpox outbreaks

Cited by 317 publications

References 27 publications

The impact of network clustering and assortativity on epidemic behaviour

The impact of network clustering and assortativity on epidemic behaviour

Numerical simulations of an SIR epidemic model with random initial states

The Effect of Social Mixing Controls on the Spread of Smallpox—A Two-Level Model

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