Placing heavy rainfall events in context using long time series: An example from the North York Moors

An assessment of changes in seasonal and annual extreme rainfall in the UK between 1961 and 2009

“…As with the annual maxima return period estimates, there is distinct decadal variability in the results and some of the regions and seasons which were previously identified by FK2003a as significantly increased do not show a continuation of this trend. In conjunction with the increases in SMED and supporting the findings of other research (Maraun et al , 2008; Allan et al , 2009; Hopkins et al , 2010) we find the greatest increases to be for return period estimates in autumn and winter long duration events.…”

“…The few increases in summer SMED, although statistically significant, contrast with climate model projections which suggest that the future climate is likely to bring hotter, drier summers (Murphy et al , 2009; Hopkins et al , 2010). However, the results presented above and in later sections are premised on seasonal maxima rather than seasonal mean rainfall and it is known that both global and regional climate models are currently unable to simulate summer rainfall extremes because of inadequate parameterization of the convective processes (Fowler and Ekström, 2009).…”

Local perception of infrequent, extreme upland flash flooding: prisoners of experience?

“…This supports the findings of research in southern England: that 'flood victims view climate change and flooding as largely separate issues' (Whitmarsh, 2008, p. 368, original emphasis shown), with flooding perceived to be caused by things visible in the local environment (Whitmarsh, 2008). Other research has emphasised the importance of local observations and experience in the understanding of hazards (Irwin, Simmons, and Walker, 1999;Bickerstaff and Walker, 2001). Questionnaire and interview responses described a build-up of debris or vegetation, sometimes related to changes in management.…”

“…Research has found a range of 'barriers', affecting farmers' decisions to install natural flood management measures (Holstead and Kenyon, 2011). Environmental issues are perceived and understood within a local social context (Irwin, Simmons, and Walker, 1999;Bickerstaff and Walker, 2001).…”

“…This paper also includes insights acquired from evaluations of physical data. A composite daily rainfall series for upper Ryedale, running from 1916 to August 2009, was analysed (Hopkins, Warburton, and Burt, 2010). For this study, four months of data was added to expand the series to the end of 2009.…”