Physiologically based demographic models streamline identification and collection of data in evidence‐based pest risk assessment

Abstract

The distribution and abundance of species that cause economic loss (i.e., pests) in crops, forests or livestock depends on many biotic and abiotic factors that are thought difficult to separate and quantify on geographical and temporal scales. However, the weather-driven biology and dynamics of such species and of relevant interacting species in their food chain or web can be captured via mechanistic physiologically based demographic models (PBDMs). These models can be implemented in the context of a geographic information system (GIS) to predict the potential geographic distribution and relative abundance of pest species given observed or climate change scenarios of weather. PBDMs may include bottom-up effects of the host on pest dynamics and, if appropriate, the top-down action of natural enemies. When driven by weather, PBDMs predict the phenology, age structure and abundance dynamics at one or many locations enabling the distribution of the interacting species to be predicted across wide geographic areas. PBDMs are able to capture relevant ecosystem complexity within a modest number of measurable parameters because they use the same ecological models of analogous resource acquisition and allocation processes across all trophic levels. The use of these analogies makes parameter estimation easier as the underlying functions are known. This is a significant advantage in cases where the biological data available to build an evidence base for pest risk assessment is sparse

Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) (Diptera: Tephritidae) overwintering: an overview

“…Biosecurity risk analysis relies heavily on climate matching from current distributions to predict an organism's future distribution in a novel location (Thuiller et al 2005;Stephens et al 2007;Bomford et al 2009;Ponti et al 2015). However, such work overlooks behavioural, physiological and life-history mechanisms by which an organism can better cope or withstand the abiotic stressors of its environment (Kingsolver et al 2011;Papadopoulos 2014).…”

Tomato leafminer [(Tuta absoluta Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae)] and its current ecofriendly management strategies: A review

“…The pest had accessed to Ethiopia in 2012 most probably from Sudan or Yemen (Goftishu et al, 2014) and Kenya in 2013 , Tanzania and Senegal in 2014 (Biondi et al, 2015;Tonnang et al, 2015), Uganda in 2015 (Tumuhaise et al, 2016), South Africa in 2016 (Visser et al, 2017). The main spread vehicle for this invasive insect species was natural dispersal means, such as wind (Gontijo et al, 2013;Sridhar et al, 2014) and human fruit and vegetable translocation processes in local and abroad markets (Karadjova et al, 2013).…”

“…Therefore, larvae are not easily exposed to chemical insecticides (Ayalew, 2015). The second challenging thing is the resistance ability of insects towards different pesticides used (Cuthbertson et al, 2013;Ponti et al, 2015). Such pesticide resistance in insect enforces the farmer to try a number of inappropriate chemicals through spraying on their tomato farm.…”

Tomato Leafminer, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick 1917), an emerging agricultural pest in Sub-Saharan Africa: Current and prospective management strategies

“…T. absoluta continued to spread in Africa and invaded Egypt in 2010 (Moussa et al, 2013) then reached Sudan and South Sudan in 2011 (Pfeiffer et al, 2013;Brevault et al, 2014), then Ethiopia in 2012 (Goftishu et al, 2014). Other countries in Africa reported to be invaded by tomato leafminer are Kenya (2013) (Mohamed et al, 2015), Tanzania (2014) (Biondi et al, 2015) and Senegal (2014) (Tonnang et al, 2015). T. absoluta cannot easily be controlled by chemical sprays due tothe fact that coontact toxicity annot reach larvae inside the leaves (Ayalew, 2015).…”

“…T. absoluta cannot easily be controlled by chemical sprays due tothe fact that coontact toxicity annot reach larvae inside the leaves (Ayalew, 2015). The pest has a physiological ability to adapt and survive in harsh environments such as cold temperate and hot tropical regions (Cuthbertson et al, 2013;Ponti et al, 2015). Tonnang et al (2015) reported that the pest can survive temperature as high as 49°C in summer in Sudan.…”