The Asian vinegar fly Drosophila suzukii (spotted wing Drosophila [SWD]) has emerged as a major invasive insect pest of small and stone fruits in both the Americas and Europe since the late 2000s. While research efforts have rapidly progressed in Asia, North America, and Europe over the past 5 years, important new insights may be gained in comparing and contrasting findings across the regions affected by SWD. In this review, we explore common themes in the invasion biology of SWD by examining (1) its biology and current pest status in endemic and recently invaded regions; (2) current efforts and future research needs for the development of predictive models for its geographic expansion; and (3) prospects for both natural and classical (=importation) biological control of SWD in invaded habitats, with emphasis on the role of hymenopteran parasitoids. We conclude that particularly fruitful areas of research should include fundamental studies of its overwintering, host-use, and dispersal capabilities; as well as applied studies of alternative, cost-effective management techniques to complement insecticide use within the integrated pest management framework. Finally, we emphasize that outreach efforts are critical to effective SWD management by highlighting successful Communicated by M. Traugott. Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (strategies and insights gained from various geographic regions.Keywords Biological control Á Drosophila Á Frugivore Á Integrated pest management Á Invasion biology Key message• Spotted wing Drosophila (SWD) is a major invasive pest of soft fruits in the Americas and Europe. • We review the current global distribution and economic impacts of SWD, develop models for predicting its further spread, and discuss the prospects for biological control of this pest. • The following research areas into SWD biology appear particularly promising: its biology at low temperatures, the dispersal and migratory abilities of adults, and exploration in Asian regions for potential classical biological control agents.

The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests.ecological impacts | economic impacts | species interactions | Olea europaea | desertification

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution and abundance of many species. Here we examine the potential effects of climate warming on olive (Olea europaea) and olive fly (Bactrocera oleae) across the ecological zones of Arizona-California (AZ-CA) and Italy. A weather-driven physiologically-based demographic model was developed from the extensive literature and used to simulate the phenology, growth and population dynamics of both species. Observed weather for several years from 151 sites in AZ-CA and 84 sites in Italy were used in the study. Three climate-warming scenarios were developed by increasing observed average daily temperature 1 • , 2 • and 3 • C. Predictions of bloom dates, yield, total fly pupae and percent infestation were mapped using GRASS GIS. Linear multiple-regression was used to estimate the effects of weather on yield and fly abundance. Olive has a much wider temperature range of favorability than olive fly. The model predicted the present distributions of both species and gave important insights on the potential effects of climate warming on them. In AZ-CA, climate warming is expected to 196 Climatic Change (2009) 95:195-217 contract the range of olive in southern desert areas, and expand it northward and along coastal areas. Olive fly is currently limited by high temperature in the southern part of its range and by cold weather in northern areas. Climate warming is expected to increase the range of olive fly northward and in coastal areas, but decrease it in southern areas. In Italy, the range of olive is expected to increase into currently unfavorable cold areas in higher elevations in the Apennine Mountains in central Italy, and in the Po Valley in the north. Climate warming is expected to increase the range of olive fly northward throughout most of Italy.

Published bi- and tri-trophic physiologically based demographic system models having similar sub components are used to assess prospectively the geographic distributions and relative abundance (a measure of invasiveness) of six invasive herbivorous insect species across the United States and Mexico. The plant hosts and insect species included in the study are: 1) cotton/pink bollworm, 2) a fruit tree host/Mediterranean fruit fly, 3) olive/olive fly, 4) a perennial host/light brown apple moth, 5) grapevine/glassy-winged sharpshooter and its two egg parasitoids, and 6) grapevine/European grapevine moth. All of these species are currently or have been targets for eradication. The goal of the analyses is to predict and explain prospectively the disparate distributions of the six species as a basis for examining eradication or containment efforts against them. The eradication of the new world screwworm is also reviewed in the discussion section because of its pivotal role in the development of the eradication paradigm. The models used are mechanistic descriptions of the weather driven biology of the species. Observed daily weather data (i.e., max-min temperatures, solar radiation) from 1,221 locations across the United States and Mexico for the period 1983-2003 were used to drive the models. Soil moisture and nutrition were assumed nonlimiting. The simulation results were mapped using GRASS GIS. The mathematical underpinnings of the modeling approach are reviewed in the appendix and in the supplemental materials.

Background: Cotton with coevolving pests has been grown in India more than 5000 years. Hybrid cotton was introduced in the 1970s with increases in fertilizer and in insecticide use against pink bollworm that caused outbreaks of bollworm. Hybrid Bt cotton, introduced in 2002 to control bollworm and other lepidopteran pests, is grown on more than 90 % of the cotton area. Despite initial declines, year 2013 insecticide use is at 2000 levels, yields plateaued nationally, and farmer suicides increased in some areas. Biological modeling of the pre-1970s cotton/pink bollworm system was used to examine the need for Bt cotton, conditions for its economic viability, and linkage to farmer suicides. Results: Yields in rainfed cotton depend on timing, distribution, and quantity of monsoon rains. Pink bollworm causes damage in irrigated cotton, but not in rainfed cotton unless infested from irrigated fields. Use of Bt cotton seed and insecticide in rainfed cotton is questionable. Conclusions: Bt cotton may be economic in irrigated cotton, whereas costs of Bt seed and insecticide increase the risk of farmer bankruptcy in low-yield rainfed cotton. Inability to use saved seed and inadequate agronomic information trap cotton farmers on biotechnology and insecticide treadmills. Annual suicide rates in rainfed areas are inversely related to farm size and yield, and directly related to increases in Bt cotton adoption (i.e., costs). High-density short-season cottons could increase yields and reduce input costs in irrigated and rainfed cotton. Policy makers need holistic analysis before new technologies are implemented in agricultural development.

Summary Vine mealybugPlanococcus ficus is an invasive pest of vineyards in many areas of the world. In California, USA, it infests all plant subunits and has a spatial refuge from natural enemies under the bark and on roots. A temporal refuge is created when ants tending the mealybug reduce the efficacy of natural enemies. 2. Biological control of vine mealybug is only partially successful and varies among California grape-growing regions. To improve control and help determine appropriate natural enemies for importation, the effects of weather on mealybug regulation by two parasitoids, Anagyrus pseudococci and Leptomastidea abnormis , and a coccinellid predator, Cryptolaemus montrouzieri , were examined across the ecological regions of California. 3. Weather-driven, physiologically based age-mass structured demographic models of the mealybug and its natural enemies were parameterized using laboratory data and field observations. Temperature was used to define the thermal limits and development rates of each species, and resource supply/demand ratios were used to scale daily per capita growth, fecundity and survivorship rates from maximal values at optimal conditions. 4. The population dynamics of the mealybug and its natural enemies were simulated at 108 locations in California over a 10-year period using observed weather. The simulation data were mapped using a geographical information system (GIS) and analysed using linear multiple regression and marginal analysis. 5. The models predictions indicated that: (i) the parasitoid A. pseudococci has a larger impact on vine mealybug than either L. abnormis or C. montrouzieri ; (ii) mealybug densities will be lowest in the hot desert regions of southern California and highest in the cooler areas of northern California; (iii) mealybug density increases with season length and the size of the combined spatial-temporal refuge; (iv) biological control of mealybug could be achieved by reducing the size of the spatial-temporal refuge. 6. Synthesis and applications. Models, no matter how detailed, will always be incomplete; despite this, the complexity of tri-trophic systems can be modelled and the effects of biotic factors and of weather separated. The predictions of our model coincided well with field observations on vine mealybug, and clearly showed why the biological control will require additional species of natural enemies and/or why the size of the spatial and temporal refuges must be reduced.

The polyphagous Asian vinegar fly Drosophila suzukii (spotted wing Drosophila) is a native of Eastern and Southeastern Asia. It emerged as an important invasive insect pest of berries and stone fruits in the Americas and Europe beginning in 2008. Species distribution models are commonly used for analyzing the extant and potential range expansion of invasive species. Previous modeling efforts for D. suzukii include a degree-day model, a MaxEnt

Understanding the causes and effects of species invasions is a priority in ecology and conservation biology. One of the crucial steps in evaluating the impact of invasive species is to map changes in their actual and potential distribution and relative abundance across a wide region over an appropriate time span. While direct and indirect remote sensing approaches have long been used to assess the invasion of plant species, the distribution of invasive animals is mainly based on indirect methods that rely on environmental proxies of conditions suitable for colonization by a particular species. The aim of this article is to review recent efforts in the predictive modelling of the spread of both plant and animal invasive species using remote sensing, and to stimulate debate on the potential use of remote sensing in biological invasion monitoring and forecasting. Specifically, the challenges and drawbacks of remote sensing techniques are discussed in relation to: i) developing species distribution models, and ii) studying life cycle changes and phenological variations. Finally, the paper addresses the open challenges and pitfalls of remote sensing for biological invasion studies including sensor characteristics, upscaling and downscaling in species distribution models, and uncertainty of results.