Physical bases of the generation of short-term earthquake precursors: A complex model of ionization-induced geophysical processes in the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere system

Abstract

This paper describes the current understanding of the interaction between geospheres from a com plex set of physical and chemical processes under the influence of ionization. The sources of ionization involve the Earth's natural radioactivity and its intensification before earthquakes in seismically active regions, anthropogenic radioactivity caused by nuclear weapon testing and accidents in nuclear power plants and radioactive waste storage, the impact of galactic and solar cosmic rays, and active geophysical experi ments using artificial ionization equipment. This approach treats the environment as an open complex system with dissipation, where inherent processes can be considered in the framework of the synergistic approach. We demonstrate the synergy between the evolution of thermal and electromagnetic anomalies in the Earth's atmosphere, ionosphere, and magnetosphere. This makes it possible to determine the direction of the inter action process, which is especially important in applications related to short term earthquake prediction. That is why the emphasis in this study is on the processes proceeding the final stage of earthquake prepara tion; the effects of other ionization sources are used to demonstrate that the model is versatile and broadly applicable in geophysics.

Seismo-ionospheric anomalies in ionospheric TEC and plasma density before the 17 July 2006 <i>M</i>7.7 south of Java earthquake

“…There are strong enhancement of TEC anomaly during the periods of 02:00-04:00 UT (09:00-11:00 LT, +9.35 % increases) and 04:00-06:00 UT (11:00-13:00 LT, +9.70 % increases), and an anomalous reduction during 12:00-14:00 UT (19:00-21:00 LT, −1.67 % decreases). This is consistent with the previous results that the preseismic ionospheric anomalies can be positive as well as negative (Akhoondzadeh et al, 2010;Pulinets and Davidenko, 2014;Pulinets et al, 2003Pulinets et al, , 2015.…”

“…The network of GPS receivers can be used to simultaneously and continuously monitor the TEC. The GIM TEC data are provided by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) and the GIM maps are constructed into 2.5 • × 5 • (latitude × longitude) grid covering ±87.5 • N latitude and ±180 • E longitude ranges with 2 h time resolution (Schaer, 1999). In this paper, the TEC data based on the date and geographic location of south of Java earthquake from day 75 before to day 10 after (3 May to 27 July 2006) the main shock were processed.…”

Geosphere coupling and hydrothermal anomalies before the 2009 <i>M</i><sub>w</sub> 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake in Italy

“…Obviously, this characteristic is not a simple coincidence in time, and these anomalies are part of the general process of the development of the latest stage of the seismic cycle as well as the interaction of the complex open systems (Pulinets, 2011). Referring to the propagation of observed anomalies from ground up to the ionosphere, Pulinets et al (2015) presented a physical background of ionization-induced geophysical processes in the lithosphereatmosphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere system. However, the geophysical mechanism of the observed anomalies, especially those related to the coversphere, necessitates further survey.…”

Multiparameter monitoring of short-term earthquake precursors and its physical basis. Implementation in the Kamchatka region

“…In the case when a core set of key parameters is available (as it was after the analysis of numerous publications on the earthquake in Aquila April 6, 2009) such directionality can be demonstrated experimentally (see Fig. 2 in [1]). However, the organization of operational forecasting by monitoring the large number of the necessary data is not easy task, and new approaches should be investigated.…”

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Abstract.We apply experimental approach of the multiparameter monitoring of short-term earthquake precursors which reliability was confirmed by the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model created recently [1]. A key element of the model is the process of Ion induced Nucleation (IIN) and formation of cluster ions occurring as a result of the ionization of near surface air layer by radon emanating from the Earth's crust within the earthquake preparation zone.

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