Photospheric Vector Magnetic Field Parameters as A Predictor of Major Solar Flares

Abstract

Photospheric vector magnetic field data which have several Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) parameters are used to study active regions that produced major solar flares. SHARP parameter data obtained from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) instruments onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) have a good spatial and temporal sampling. We consider three SHARP parameters with high F-scores, namely total unsigned vertical current, total photospheric magnetic free energy, and total unsigned current helicity as a useful predictor for major solar flares. In this paper, we present the data analysis procedure and sample results focusing only on major solar flares (M and X class flares). The preliminary results showed in some cases, one of SHARP parameters for the M-class flare almost has the same value as X-class flare in which ideally should be higher.

Research Progress on Solar Flare Forecast Methods Based on Data-driven Models

“…Flare prediction models based on ML algorithms rely mainly on information such as sunspot morphology and magnetic field evolution parameters extracted from the solar active regions or collected from the satellite observation sites and observations in observatories (Nurzaman & Dani 2019). The core of the forecast models is to establish the complex nonlinear correlations between the flare outburst and the chosen parameters.…”