Phenological trends of winter wheat in response to varietal and temperature changes in the North China Plain

Wang, Jing; Wang, Enli; Feng, Liping; Yin, Huajun; Yu, Weidong

doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2012.12.020

Cited by 90 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Among the three analyzed climatic factors, average air temperature had the greatest impact (>50%) on most phenological stages and growing periods. Our results also support that changes in air temperatures are the main driver of impacts on crop phenology, as similarly found in earlier studies [47,48]. Additionally, cumulative sunshine hours are the greatest driver of changes to the length of the vegetative growth period.…”

Section: Potential Impact On the Irrigation Districtssupporting

confidence: 78%

Impacts of Climate Change on the Irrigation Districts of the Rio Bravo Basin

Paredes-Tavares

Albores

Mastachi-Loza

et al. 2018

Water

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This paper analyzed the evolution of climate data in the Rio Bravo Basin in Mexico from 1980-2009 and projects future climate conditions in this region. Then, the potential impacts of climate change on water resources for crops in the nine irrigation districts (IDs) of the Rio Bravo Basin were evaluated. Specifically, climate data on precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, and evapotranspiration from the baseline period of 1980-2009 were compared with projected climate conditions for 2015-2039, 2045-2069, and 2075-2099. The projections were based on two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Patterns in the behavior of the analyzed climate variables over the past ten decades were examined and compared to the projected evolution of these variables through to the end of the century. Overall, in the future, temperatures, rates of evapotranspiration, and crop water demand are expected to increase. Also, the future precipitation patterns of all IDs were modified under the considered scenarios. Finally, the IDs of Acuña-Falcón and Delicias will be the most impacted by climate changes, while Palestina will be the least affected.

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Section: Potential Impact On the Irrigation Districtssupporting

confidence: 78%

Impacts of Climate Change on the Irrigation Districts of the Rio Bravo Basin

Paredes-Tavares

Albores

Mastachi-Loza

et al. 2018

Water

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“…Chen et al (2010) investigated the response of crop productivity and water balance to climate variations and irrigation by using the APSIM model. Wang et al (2013) analyzed the response of varietal and temperature changes on winter wheat in NCP. Results showed that the increase in temperature shortened the growth duration of winter wheat mainly by shortening the growth period from sowing to jointing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling water requirements of major crops and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain

2015

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The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the most important food production bases in China. However, its agriculture water resources are threatened by climate change. In this paper, the CROPWAT model is used to evaluate crop water requirement (CWR), crop green water requirement (CGWR), and crop blue water requirement (CBWR) for main crops in NCP (winter wheat, summer maize, cotton, millet, and soybean) with a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minute from 1961 to 2010. Their responses to future climate changes are investigated. The results show that the mean annual total CWR of the main crops during growing periods amounted to 114.68 km 3 a -1 in the past 50 years. More than 72 % of CWR to support NCP crop production is green water. The spatial distributions of CWR, CGWR, and CBWR are closely related to the planting areas and irrigation availability. Summer maize, millet, and soybean are high CGWR crops with proportions of above 84 %, while the lowest CGWR proportion is in winter wheat, 58.89 %. For climate change impacts in future, holding the crop planting system and irrigation conditions unchanged, it is projected that the total CWR in 2030s will require approximately 8.75-11.25 km 3 a -1 additional water. Results show that the CWR increase in 2030s is mainly due to the increase in temperature. Under the projected temperature in 2030s and the current rainfall scenario, total CWR, CGWR, and CBWR increments were 8.58, 1.76, and 6.82 km 3 a -1 , respectively. Nearly 80 % of the CWR increment is from the increase in CBWR. Therefore, agricultural water shortage crisis will further aggravate under future climate change scenarios in NCP, and effective water-saving measures must be taken to mitigate the negative effects of climate change.

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“…Numerous published studies have focused on the relationships of phenological trends and climate change (Wang et al, 2008;Xiao et al, 2013;Li et al, 2014;He et al, 2015), whereas only a few experimental or modelling studies have dealt with the benefits of thermal time shift (the change of thermal time due to wheat cultivar shift, TTS) which drives crop phenological processes Zhao et al, 2015). It has been shown that TTS is a key factor for crop response to ongoing climate change (Xiao et al, 2015a), and has played an important role in increasing crop productivity under warming climate conditions during the past several decades Wang et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of thermal time shift on wheat phenology and yield under warming climate in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

Xiao

et al. 2017

Front. Earth Sci.

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Given climate change can potentially influence crop phenology and subsequent yield, an investigation of relevant adaptation measures could increase the understanding and mitigation of these responses in the future. In this study, field observations at 10 stations in the HuangHuai-Hai Plain of China (HHHP) are used in combination with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Wheat model to determine the effect of thermal time shift on the phenology and potential yield of wheat from 1981-2009. Warming climate speeds up winter wheat development and thereby decreases the duration of the wheat growth period. However, APSIM-Wheat model simulation suggests prolongation of the period from flowering to maturity (Gr) of winter wheat by 0.2-0.8 d$10yr -1 as the number of days by which maturity advances, which is less than that by which flowering advances. Based on computed thermal time of the two critical growth phases of wheat, total thermal time from floral initiation to flowering (TT_floral_initiation) increasesd in seven out of the 10 investigated stations. Alternatively, total thermal time from the start of grainfilling to maturity (TT_start_ grain_fill) increased in all investigated stations, except Laiyang. It is thus concluded that thermal time shift during the past three decades prolongs Gr by 0.2-3.0 d$10yr -1 in the study area. This suggests that an increase in thermal time (TT) of the wheat growth period is critical for mitigating the effect of growth period reduction due to warming climatic condition. Furthermore, climate change reduces potential yield of winter wheat in 80% of the stations by 2.3-58.8 kg$yr -1 . However, thermal time shift (TTS) increases potential yield of winter wheat in most of the stations by 3.0-51.0 kg$yr -1 . It is concluded that wheat cultivars with longer growth periods and higher thermal requirements could mitigate the negative effects of warming climate on crop production in the study area.

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Phenological trends of winter wheat in response to varietal and temperature changes in the North China Plain

Cited by 90 publications

References 32 publications

Impacts of Climate Change on the Irrigation Districts of the Rio Bravo Basin

Impacts of Climate Change on the Irrigation Districts of the Rio Bravo Basin

Modeling water requirements of major crops and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain

Impact of thermal time shift on wheat phenology and yield under warming climate in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

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