Impact of thermal time shift on wheat phenology and yield under warming climate in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

Abstract

Given climate change can potentially influence crop phenology and subsequent yield, an investigation of relevant adaptation measures could increase the understanding and mitigation of these responses in the future. In this study, field observations at 10 stations in the HuangHuai-Hai Plain of China (HHHP) are used in combination with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Wheat model to determine the effect of thermal time shift on the phenology and potential yield of wheat from 1981-2009. Warming climate speeds up winter wheat development and thereby decreases the duration of the wheat growth period. However, APSIM-Wheat model simulation suggests prolongation of the period from flowering to maturity (Gr) of winter wheat by 0.2-0.8 d$10yr -1 as the number of days by which maturity advances, which is less than that by which flowering advances. Based on computed thermal time of the two critical growth phases of wheat, total thermal time from floral initiation to flowering (TT_floral_initiation) increasesd in seven out of the 10 investigated stations. Alternatively, total thermal time from the start of grainfilling to maturity (TT_start_ grain_fill) increased in all investigated stations, except Laiyang. It is thus concluded that thermal time shift during the past three decades prolongs Gr by 0.2-3.0 d$10yr -1 in the study area. This suggests that an increase in thermal time (TT) of the wheat growth period is critical for mitigating the effect of growth period reduction due to warming climatic condition. Furthermore, climate change reduces potential yield of winter wheat in 80% of the stations by 2.3-58.8 kg$yr -1 . However, thermal time shift (TTS) increases potential yield of winter wheat in most of the stations by 3.0-51.0 kg$yr -1 . It is concluded that wheat cultivars with longer growth periods and higher thermal requirements could mitigate the negative effects of warming climate on crop production in the study area.

Trends and Climate Response in the Phenology of Crops in Northeast China

“…Generally, crop phenology determines the timing and duration of critical periods for growth, which in turn can greatly affect the harvestable yield and food quality (Porter and Semenov, 2005). A warmer climate inevitably leads to shift in crop phenology, which ultimately determinate crop yields (Estrella et al, 2007;Tao et al, 2013;Xiao et al, 2017;Zhao et al, 2019). Quantitatively assessing the shift in crop phenology caused by climate change can help agricultural stakeholders to formulate effective climate change adaptation strategies (Mo et al, 2016;Abendroth et al, 2021).…”

“…The impacts of climate variability and/or climate change on crop phenology have been studied by numerous researchers in China for various crops, such as maize (Tao et al, 2014a;Xiao et al, 2016;Xiao et al, 2019;Liu et al, 2021), rice (Tao et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2017a;Bai et al, 2019;Ye et al, 2019;Bai and Xiao, 2020), wheat (Wang et al, 2013;He et al, 2015;Xiao et al, 2015;Xiao et al, 2017), soybean (He et al, 2020;Gong et al, 2021), and cotton (Wang et al, 2017b;Li et al, 2021a). As climate warming accelerates the crop growth and shortens the growing period (Tao et al, 2014a;Xiao et al, 2015), previous related studies have mainly focused on the effects of increasing temperature on crop phenology (Estrella et al, 2007;.…”

Identification of Seasonal Sub-Regions of the Drought in the North China Plain

“…Presently, many drought indices have been applied to the study of drought in the North China Plain [21][22][23]. Research that has been done on this area mainly concentrated on the relationship between drought features and its environmental factors such as soil moisture content, crop water stress, and ENSO [24][25][26][27]. These studies suggest that there exist regional variations of drought.…”

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics in Grain Production and Its Influencing Factors in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 1995 to 2018

“…Qu, Li [ 20 ] indicated that the increase in precipitation in the HHH can significantly increase the food production in the HHH, but the increase in thermal resources will increase the shortage of water resources and offset the impact of the increase in temperature. Xiao, Qi [ 23 ] reveled that climate change reduced the potential winter wheat yield of 80% of the stations by 2.3–58.8 kg∙yr −1 , while at the same time it is pointed out that increasing the heat time of the wheat growth period is essential to alleviate the impact of the shortening of the growth period caused by warming climatic conditions. However, if the advancement of agricultural technology and other non-climatic factors are taken into account, for every 1 °C increase in the average temperature of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the winter wheat yield in the north will increase by 2.1%, and the yield in the south will decrease by 4.0% [ 22 ].…”