Phenological shifts and the fate of mutualisms

Abstract

Climate change is altering the timing of life history events in a wide array of species, many of which are involved in mutualistic interactions. Because many mutualisms can form only if partner species are able to locate each other in time, differential phenological shifts are likely to influence their strength, duration and outcome. At the extreme, climate change-driven shifts in phenology may result in phenological mismatch: the partial or complete loss of temporal overlap of mutualistic species. We have a growing understanding of how, when, and why phenological change can alter one type of mutualism–pollination. However, as we show here, there has been a surprising lack of attention to other types of mutualism. We generate a set of predictions about the characteristics that may predispose mutualisms in general to phenological mismatches. We focus not on the consequences of such mismatches but rather on the likelihood that mismatches will develop. We explore the influence of three key characteristics of mutualism: 1) intimacy, 2) seasonality and duration, and 3) obligacy and specificity. We predict that the following characteristics of mutualism may increase the likelihood of phenological mismatch: 1) a non-symbiotic life history in which co-dispersal is absent; 2) brief, seasonal interactions; and 3) facultative, generalized interactions. We then review the limited available data in light of our a priori predictions and point to mutualisms that are more and less likely to be at risk of becoming phenologically mismatched, emphasizing the need for research on mutualisms other than plant–pollinator interactions. Future studies should explicitly focus on mutualism characteristics to determine whether and how changing phenologies will affect mutualistic interactions.

Informational Mismatches: A Neglected Threat of Climate Change to Interspecific Interactions

“…Therefore, positive interactions are as sensitive as other interactions to altered abundance and distribution of interacting species, but likely to be more sensitive to phenological mismatches caused by climate change. Despite this and the abundance of positive interactions in natural systems (Bronstein, 2009), studies focusing on the effects of climate change on positive biotic interactions are scarce (Hegland et al, 2009), and most of research has targeted on plant-pollinator phenological mismatches (McKinney et al, 2012;Burkle et al, 2013;Rafferty et al, 2015). However, there are surprisingly few studies on other phenological mismatches (Rafferty et al, 2015), and even less on spatial mismatches (Schweiger et al, 2008), between organisms that positively interact, which is what I present here.…”

“…Losing interactions involves the loss of ecological functions and hence the "health" of ecosystems (Valiente-Banuet et al, 2015). In particular, positive interspecific interactions are likely to be very sensitive to climate change (Rafferty et al, 2015). Here I propose that climate change, by altering the phenology, distribution and abundance of some species but not of others, might reduce or completely remove the overlapping between competing species using interspecific social information and, hence, induce an informational mismatch.…”

“…This is so because positive interactions require temporal matching of events of life history of interacting species, probably reducing the benefits when such coordination fails (Rafferty et al, 2015). Therefore, positive interactions are as sensitive as other interactions to altered abundance and distribution of interacting species, but likely to be more sensitive to phenological mismatches caused by climate change.…”

Range increase of a Neotropical orchid bee under future scenarios of climate change

“…Species are expected to track temperature isotherms that allow them to maintain their best physiological and developmental processes (Skov and Svenning 2004;Araújo and Pearson 2005), directly influencing their distributions, phenologies, and interactions with other species (Forrest 2015;Rafferty et al 2015). The ability of organisms to adapt to climatic change is crucial with respect to maintenance of overall biodiversity and ecosystem services under future climate change of uncertain magnitude (Hughes and Hughes 2000).…”

Extreme variations in spring temperature affect ecosystem regulating services provided by birds during migration

“…Extreme weather affects many biological processes (e.g., phenology, survival; Parmesan 2006, Ellwood et al 2013, and migratory animals are particularly at risk as they encounter a diversity of conditions throughout their journeys (Winkler et al 2014). A particular concern is that large deviations in weather from typical conditions may alter formerly synchronous phenological relationships (Parmesan 2006, Johansson et al 2015, Rafferty et al 2015, such as coincidence between the arrival of migratory birds at stopover and breeding habitats and peak abundance of ephemeral food resources Both 2005, McKinney et al 2012). If the degree of asynchrony is large, there is potential for reduced individual and population-level fitness (Both et al 2006, Møller et al 2008, McKinney et al 2012, Day and Kokko 2015.…”