Peste des petits ruminants in China: Spatial risk analysis

Ma, Jingyun; Gao, Xiang; Liu, Boyang; Chen, Hao; Xiao, Jianhua; Wang, Hongbin

doi:10.1111/tbed.13217

Cited by 23 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 14 publications

(15 reference statements)

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“…The reliability of MaxEnt has been confirmed by its good capacity to predict novel presence localities for poorly known species/diseases [54]. It has been widely used in many diseases, including PPR [55] and African swine fever [56].…”

Section: Ppr Spatial Distribution Modelmentioning

confidence: 93%

A predictive analysis on the risk of peste des petits ruminants in livestock in the Trans-Himalayan region and validation of its transboundary transmission paths

et al. 2021

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Although the Trans-Himalayan region (THR) is an important endemic and rendezvous area of peste des petits ruminants (PPR), monitoring and prevention measurements are difficult to execute because of the rough geographical conditions. Besides, a heterogeneous breeding system and the poor veterinary service of susceptible animals compound the existing problems. Here, we propose a forecasting system to define the key points of PPR prevention and aid the countries in saving time, labor, and products to achieve the goal of the global eradication project of PPR. The spatial distribution of PPR was predicted in the THR for the first time using a niche model that was constructed with a combination of eco-geographical, anthropoid, meteorological, and host variables. The transboundary least-cost paths (LCPs) of small ruminants in the THR were also calculated. Our results reveal that the low-elevation area of the THR had a higher PPR risk and was mainly dominated by human variables. The high-elevation area had lower risk and was mainly dominated by natural variables. Eight LCPs representing corridors among India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and China were obtained. This confirmed the potential risk of transboundary communication by relying on PPR contamination on the grasslands for the first time. The predicted potential risk communication between the two livestock systems and landscapes (high and low elevation) might play a role in driving PPR transboundary transmission.

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Section: Ppr Spatial Distribution Modelmentioning

confidence: 93%

A predictive analysis on the risk of peste des petits ruminants in livestock in the Trans-Himalayan region and validation of its transboundary transmission paths

et al. 2021

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“…The following geographically distributed landscape, climatic and socio-economic characteristics for each administrative unit were selected as potential explanatory factors based on the analysis of scientific publications on PPR spatial and temporal modeling (Ma et al, 2017(Ma et al, , 2019Mokhtari et al, 2017;Cao et al, 2018; Gao et al, 2019; Ruget et al, 2019): 1) total road length; 2) road density; 3) average small ruminants density; 4) average cattle density; 5) average population density; 6) average elevation; 7) annual mean temperature; 8) annual precipitation; 9) maximum green vegetation fraction. Measurement units and data sources are shown in Table 1.…”

Section: Modeling Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the risks of Peste des Petits Ruminants spread in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Abdrakhmanov¹,

Mukhanbetkaliev²,

Sultanov³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a viral transboundary disease of small ruminants that causes significant damage to agriculture. The disease has not been previously registered in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK). This paper presents an assessment of the susceptibility of the RK territory to the spread of this disease in case of its importation from infected countries. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models trained on the PPR outbreaks in China were used to rank municipal districts of the RK in terms of the risk of PPR spread. Spatial density of outbreaks was used as a risk indicator while a number of socio-economic, landscape and climatic indicators were considered as explanatory variables. The Exploratory Regression tool was used to reveal a best combination of independent variables based on specified thresholds of R-squared, variables' multicollinearity and residuals' normality and autocorrelation. The small ruminants' density, the maximum green vegetation fraction, the annual mean temperature, the road length and density as well as the cattle density were the most significant factors. Both OLS and GWR demonstrated nearly similar model performance providing a global adjusted R-squared of 0.61. Applied to the RK, the models show the greatest risk of PPR spread in the south-eastern and northern regions of the country, especially within Almaty, Zhambyl, Turkistan, West Kazakhstan and East Kazakhstan regions. As part of the study, a country-wise survey was carried out to collect data on the distribution of livestock population the RK, which resulted in compiling a complete geo-database of small ruminants' holdings in the country. The research results can be used to form a national strategy for the prevention of the importation and spread of PPR in Kazakhstan through targeted monitoring in high-risk areas.

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“…Mathematical modelling has been performed to estimate economic impact, identify risks for transmission, and evaluate possible control techniques [522][523][524][525][526]. An in-silico approach to protein analysis may help with development of vaccines and therapeutics [527].…”

Section: Peste Des Petits Ruminantsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transboundary Animal Diseases, an Overview of 17 Diseases with Potential for Global Spread and Serious Consequences

Clemmons

Alfson

Dutton

2021

Animals

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Animals provide food and other critical resources to most of the global population. As such, diseases of animals can cause dire consequences, especially disease with high rates of morbidity or mortality. Transboundary animal diseases (TADs) are highly contagious or transmissible, epidemic diseases, with the potential to spread rapidly across the globe and the potential to cause substantial socioeconomic and public health consequences. Transboundary animal diseases can threaten the global food supply, reduce the availability of non-food animal products, or cause the loss of human productivity or life. Further, TADs result in socioeconomic consequences from costs of control or preventative measures, and from trade restrictions. A greater understanding of the transmission, spread, and pathogenesis of these diseases is required. Further work is also needed to improve the efficacy and cost of both diagnostics and vaccines. This review aims to give a broad overview of 17 TADs, providing researchers and veterinarians with a current, succinct resource of salient details regarding these significant diseases. For each disease, we provide a synopsis of the disease and its status, species and geographic areas affected, a summary of in vitro or in vivo research models, and when available, information regarding prevention or treatment.

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Peste des petits ruminants in China: Spatial risk analysis

Cited by 23 publications

References 14 publications

A predictive analysis on the risk of peste des petits ruminants in livestock in the Trans-Himalayan region and validation of its transboundary transmission paths

A predictive analysis on the risk of peste des petits ruminants in livestock in the Trans-Himalayan region and validation of its transboundary transmission paths

Mapping the risks of Peste des Petits Ruminants spread in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Transboundary Animal Diseases, an Overview of 17 Diseases with Potential for Global Spread and Serious Consequences

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