A predictive analysis on the risk of peste des petits ruminants in livestock in the Trans-Himalayan region and validation of its transboundary transmission paths

Abstract

Although the Trans-Himalayan region (THR) is an important endemic and rendezvous area of peste des petits ruminants (PPR), monitoring and prevention measurements are difficult to execute because of the rough geographical conditions. Besides, a heterogeneous breeding system and the poor veterinary service of susceptible animals compound the existing problems. Here, we propose a forecasting system to define the key points of PPR prevention and aid the countries in saving time, labor, and products to achieve the goal of the global eradication project of PPR. The spatial distribution of PPR was predicted in the THR for the first time using a niche model that was constructed with a combination of eco-geographical, anthropoid, meteorological, and host variables. The transboundary least-cost paths (LCPs) of small ruminants in the THR were also calculated. Our results reveal that the low-elevation area of the THR had a higher PPR risk and was mainly dominated by human variables. The high-elevation area had lower risk and was mainly dominated by natural variables. Eight LCPs representing corridors among India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and China were obtained. This confirmed the potential risk of transboundary communication by relying on PPR contamination on the grasslands for the first time. The predicted potential risk communication between the two livestock systems and landscapes (high and low elevation) might play a role in driving PPR transboundary transmission.

Spatial modeling and ecological suitability of monkeypox disease in Southern Nigeria

“…This helped to address problems associated with spatial sampling biases. Ideally, filtering or thinning removes the fewest records necessary to substantially reduce the effects of sampling bias, while simultaneously retaining the occurrence points with the greatest amount of useful information [ 30 , 31 ]. The geo-coordinates were then saved in a comma-separated value (CSV) format and imported into ArcGIS (version 10.6 ESRI) for editing and projected in UTM-WGS-1984 with standard settings or resampling to 30 arc-seconds.…”

Peste des Petits Ruminants in Central and Eastern Asia/West Eurasia: Epidemiological Situation and Status of Control and Eradication Activities after the First Phase of the PPR Global Eradication Programme (2017–2021)

“…It therefore seems clear that sharing borders with endemic countries located outside of the considered area likely plays a role in PPR introduction. For instance, a predictive analysis study recently suggested the existence of several epidemiological corridors between China and neighbouring endemic countries, such as India, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh, and proposed transhumance and the presence of susceptible wildlife as factors likely contributing to PPR transmission and maintenance in the Trans-Himalayan region [ 36 ]. Using a similar least-cost path (LCP) modelling approach for transboundary PPR movement, epidemiological linkages were predicted between China and Pakistan, India, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan [ 37 ].…”

Modeling the environmental suitability for Bacillus anthracis in the Qinghai Lake Basin, China

“…In addition, the filtering program plays the role of systematic sampling. It can delete adjacent records to reduce spatial aggregation, which is regarded as the most effective method in correcting sampling bias [36,37].…”

“…In addition, the human population density from the Asia Continental Population Datasets (2000-2020), which are publicly and freely available both through the WorldPop Dataverse Repository and the WorldPop project website (http://www.worldpop.org.uk/data/), were used as predictor variables in this research. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to reduce the number of continuous environmental variables [37,42,43]. During PCA, we used eigenvalues larger than 0.97 and the scree plot criterion for PCA in item level factoring [44].…”