The discovery that certain high-risk strains of human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) cause nearly 100% of invasive cervical cancer has spurred a revolution in cervical cancer prevention by promoting the development of viral vaccines. Although the efficacy of these vaccines has already been demonstrated, a complete understanding of viral latency and natural immunity is lacking, and solving these mysteries could help guide policies of cervical cancer screening and vaccine use. Here, we examine the epidemiological and biological understanding of the natural history of HPV infection, with an eye toward using these studies to guide the implementation of cervical cancer prevention strategies.
IntroductionThe discovery that certain high-risk strains of human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) cause nearly 100% of invasive cervical cancer (1) has spurred a revolution in cervical cancer prevention. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have evaluated the efficacy of two prophylactic vaccines: Gardasil (also known as HPV4 or quadrivalent vaccine) targets two of the most carcinogenic HPV genotypes (HPV16 and HPV18), as well as two types responsible for more than 90% of anogenital warts (HPV6 and HPV11), and Cervarix (also known as HPV2 or bivalent vaccine) targets HPV16 and HPV18 alone. The results of the vaccine trials have been summarized in detail elsewhere (2-10), demonstrating nearly complete protection against cervical disease caused by the targeted genotypes in previously uninfected women for up to 8 years (11). In secondary prevention, primary screening using HPV DNA testing alone has been found to have performance comparable or superior to Pap smear-based screening in several large RCTs in Canada and Europe (12-16). The high predictive value of a negative HPV DNA test allows for safe extension of screening intervals to at least once every 3-5 years (17-19), which if broadly adopted would increase the efficiency of cervical cancer screening with minimal impact on cancer risk.The RCTs have demonstrated clear efficacy of HPV-based screening and vaccination, but questions about best practices for implementation remain (20,21). Many of the policy debates stem from specific uncertainties in our understanding of the natural history of HPV infection across the lifespan, and particularly in older women. The current model of HPV and cervical cancer natural history that anchors the decision models used in policy development is outlined in Figure 1 (reviewed in refs. 22, 23). Briefly, women acquire HPV through sexual intercourse with an infected partner, and thus HPV prevalence is high around the age of sexual debut, when exposure is high in the absence of immunity. Infections "clear" within 2 years in more than 90% of individuals (24)(25)(26). Approximately 60% of these infections will induce type-specific seroconversion, and if cervical samples are collected during productive viral infection, they may be associated with mild cervical abnormalities (i.e., low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions [LSILs] or cervical intraepithelial neoplasia ...