Performing Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis from Given Data in Tunnel Construction

Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Zhu, Hongping; AbouRizk, Simaan

doi:10.1061/(asce)cp.1943-5487.0000714

Cited by 46 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…As the associated uncertainty computation component was meant to provide an estimate of the uncertainty-related duration/duration generated by the presence of uncertainties, factors which bring about uncertainties in construction projects were used for its development. A total of 40 uncertainty factors identified via extensive review of previous literature (Ahuja and Nandakumar, 1984; Ayyub and Gupta, 1994; Zhang et al , 2003, 2017; Song et al , 2005; Migilinkas and Ustinovicious, 2008; Pipattanapiwong and Wantana, 2011; Jaisue, 2009; Gosling et al , 2013; Saunders et al , 2014; Rauzana, 2015; Francis, 2016; You et al , 2018; Um and Kim, 2018), along with five more identified via questionnaire survey (details shown in Table 1), constituted the uncertainty factors used for the component's development.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the modelling of construction duration

Ahmadu

Ibrahim

et al. 2020

ECAM

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PurposeThis study aims to develop a model which incorporates the impact of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties into construction duration predictions, in a manner that is consistent with the nature/quality of information available about various factors which bring about uncertainties.Design/methodology/approachData relating to 178 completed Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETfund) building construction projects were obtained from construction firms via questionnaire survey. Using 90% of the data, the model was developed in the form of a hybrid-based algorithm implemented through a suitable user-friendly graphical user interface (GUI) using MATLAB programming language. Bayesian model averaging, Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy logic were the statistical methods used for the algorithm development, prior to its GUI implementation in MATLAB. Using the remaining 10% data, the model's predictive accuracy was assessed via the independent samples t-test and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).FindingsThe developed model's predictions were found not statistically different from those of actual duration estimates in the 10% test data, with a MAPE of just 2%. This suggests that the model's ability to incorporate both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties improves accuracy of duration predictions made using it.Research limitations/implicationsThe model was developed using a particular type of building projects (TETfund building construction projects), and so its use is limited to projects with characteristics similar to those used for its development.Practical implicationsThe developed model's predictions are expected to serve as a useful basis for consultancy firms and contractor organisations to make more realistic schedules and benchmark measures of construction period, thereby facilitating effective planning and successful execution of construction projects.Originality/valueThe study presented a model which permits combined manipulation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, hence ensuring a more realistic incorporation of uncertainty into construction duration predictions.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the modelling of construction duration

Ahmadu

Ibrahim

et al. 2020

ECAM

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“…However, tunnel construction in cities may cause safety concerns in nearby buildings. The direct influence of tunnel construction through multiple parameters is called tunnelsoil-building interaction [10]. Specifically, the operating process of heavy machinery may cause severe damages to buildings that are relatively close with relatively shallow foundation [11], [12].…”

Section: A Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…BTR is determined according to four types of parameters, that is: 1) tunnel design; 2) geological; 3) operational; and 4) building parameters [10], [12]. The tunnel-design parameters represent the tunnel conditions, for example, the tunnel cover depth.…”

Section: A Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Comparatively, modeling the hidden relationships for complex systems is a goal on a relatively lower and fundamental level while output control is a more important goal on a higher level. For example, the building tilt rate (BTR) in tunnel-induced damages is a typical hazard that can cause large economic losses or even safety concerns [10]. Naturally, it is important to monitor and predict the BTR, which, however, is only a lower level goal.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Transparent Digital Twin for Output Control Using Belief Rule Base

Chang

Zhang

et al. 2022

IEEE Trans. Cybern.

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A transparent digital twin (DT) is designed for output control using the belief rule base (BRB), namely, DT-BRB. The goal of the transparent DT-BRB is not only to model the complex relationships between the system inputs and output but also to conduct output control by identifying and optimizing the key parameters in the model inputs. The proposed DT-BRB approach is composed of three major steps. First, BRB is adopted to model the relationships between the inputs and output of the physical system. Second, an analytical procedure is proposed to identify only the key parameters in the system inputs with the highest contribution to the output. Being consistent with the inferencing, integration, and unification procedures of BRB, there are also three parts in the contribution calculation in this step. Finally, the data-driven optimization is performed to control the system output. A practical case study on the Wuhan Metro System is conducted for reducing the building tilt rate (BTR) in tunnel construction. By comparing the results following different standards, the 80% contribution standard is proved to have the highest marginal contribution that identifies only 43.5% parameters as the key parameters but can reduce the BTR by 73.73%. Moreover, it is also observed that the proposed DT-BRB approach is so effective that iterative optimizations are not necessarily needed. Index Terms-Belief rule base (BRB), building tilt rate (BTR), output control, transparent digital twin (DT).

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“…It is difficult to expect some underground responses to excavation actions due to the complexity and the heterogeneity of the surrounding medium in tunnel and underground construction. Uncertainty is a condition involving incomplete and/or uncertain knowledge that cannot reliably represent the current state, potential outcomes or more than one possible outcome [15]. Due to the presence of various sources of uncertainty, precise determination of the rock mass properties is very difficult.…”

Section: Uncertainty Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of uncertainties in travertine rock mass for the Antalya (Turkey) Metro tunnel excavation

Özçelik

Aydemir

2021

Journal of Taibah University for Science

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The uncertainty in the measurement of rock mass is largely due to the inherently heterogeneous nature of the rock mass itself. A variety of environmental conditions influence the engineering behaviour of the rock mass. Antalya settlement area is located on the travertine deposits. Travertines were affected by domestic and industrial liquid waste, which was injected directly into the travertine plateau through septic holes in Antalya prior to 2000. This situation resulted in poor engineering properties in travertine rocks, such as high deformation and low strength. It can cause issues in travertine foundation excavations. Determining all engineering parameters, ordering their weights and clarifying their uncertainty effects are especially difficult tasks in tunnel excavations. This paper addresses the most important aspects of the Antalya 3rd Stage Rail System tunnel project and examines the rock mass properties of karstic travertines.

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Performing Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis from Given Data in Tunnel Construction

Cited by 46 publications

References 74 publications

Incorporating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the modelling of construction duration

Incorporating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the modelling of construction duration

Transparent Digital Twin for Output Control Using Belief Rule Base

Evaluation of uncertainties in travertine rock mass for the Antalya (Turkey) Metro tunnel excavation

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