Performance evaluation of Africa CORDEX regional climate models: case of Kpong irrigation scheme, Ghana

Ashaley, James; Anornu, Geophrey K.; Awotwi, Alfred; Gyamfi, Charles; Anim-Gyampo, Maxwell

doi:10.1007/s41324-020-00331-z

Cited by 13 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…In this study Regional Climate Model RCA4 driven by the GCM CCCma-CanESM2 was used. This RCM-GCM combination has better performance in simulating observed rainfall over West African regions and is among top performing models among several others as reported many studies (Ogega et al, 2020;Ashaley et al, 2020;Akinsanola et al, 2018). Coastal…”

Section: Future Climate Outlook For Coastal West Africamentioning

confidence: 81%

Modelling impacts of climate change on coastal West African rainfall

Ndehedehe

Usman²,

Okwuashi

et al. 2021

Model. Earth Syst. Environ.

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Several tropical regions of the world, including West Africa are strong climatic hotspots where the increase in extreme climatic events (e.g., droughts) impacts on water resources and hydroecological systems. Even though the West African Sahel has been widely studied, reports on the rainfall climatology of coastal West Africa are considerably limited. Assessing the evolutionary changes in rainfall in this region is crucial to improving understanding on the impacts of global climate systems on rainfall variability. The main aim of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the characteristics (mean annual, wettest month, driest month, and mean monthly) of coastal West African rainfall using General Circulation Model and two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios).Climate teleconnection induced rainfall is quantified using the partial least squares regression, and the dominant patterns of rainfall variability in the region are also assessed. The results indicate that areas along the coast with leading modes of rainfall variability and characterized by bimodal rainfall patterns are projected to receive highest rainfall in the mid and end of the century. However, inland areas are expected to receive low rainfall under the influence of both emission scenarios. An exception to this is the inland middle belt in Nigeria, which is projected to receive more rainfall than its surrounding areas. These results imply an intensification of the water cycle along the coastal region that could lead to increasing propensity of flood and drought events. Finally, Togo, Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, Benin are hotspots in coastal West Africa where climate teleconnection patterns induce changes in rainfall.

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Section: Future Climate Outlook For Coastal West Africamentioning

confidence: 81%

Modelling impacts of climate change on coastal West African rainfall

Ndehedehe

Usman²,

Okwuashi

et al. 2021

Model. Earth Syst. Environ.

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“…The climate change models applied for this study were derived from the Regional Climate Models (RCM) from the project of CORDEX Africa. The regional climate model has a resolution of 0.48 o and it is widely used in most African countries (Ashaley et al 2020;Mengistu et al 2021). This study compared several climate models with a reasonable spatial resolution to retrieve data for two climate variables (rainfall and temperature) at a monthly time scale.…”

Section: Climate Model Validation and Bias Correctionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…models and their scenarios in the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The evaluation and application of CORDEX outputs were widely reported for the water resource impact assessment in Ethiopia (Ashaley et al 2020;Tesfaye et al 2020;Alehu et al 2021;Asnake et al 2021;Mengistu et al 2021).…”

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confidence: 99%

Assessing impacts of future climate on the crop water requirement and growth period. A case of Lake Hawassa watershed, Ethiopia

Abraham

Muluneh

2022

Preprint

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Background Assessing the influence of climate change on the crop growth period, water requirement, and drought conditions is important for the integrated planning of the production system. This study assessed the impact of climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Product (CMIP5) on Crop Water Requirement (CWR), Length of Growth Period (LGP), and drought conditions. This study applied two regional climate models that have shown better performance for the evaluation criteria during the historical period. Drought analysis was conducted for different classes of drought index using standardized anomalies of rainfall (S-index) from climate models. Results The future growing season of the area on average for all the years is between April 15 and May 1. The period between April 15 and May 1 marks the onset time and the end of September is the cessation time having LGP ranging from 150–160 days. Crop water requirement was projected to increase on average from the base period on both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Analysis of drought prediction shows a few cases of extreme drought during the 2050s and 2080s under RCP 8.5. Furthermore, the 2050s has registered the lowest number of years with a positive S-index value indicating the projected scarcity of precipitation during these periods under RCP 8.5. Conclusion This study provides information on the impacts of climate change on crop growth periods, water requirements, and drought conditions. Therefore, understanding their future changes will enable the preparation of a better plan for the adaptation and mitigation of impacts.

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“…The five model runs were CCLM4 forced by ICHEC-EC-EARTH (r12i1p1), RCA4 forced by CCCma-CanESM2 (r1i1p1), RACMO22T forced by MOHC-HadGEM2-ES (r1i1p1), and the ensemble means of simulations done by CCLM4 and RACMO22T. Assessing the performance of four CORDEX RCMs in reproducing climate characteristics over southern Ghana, Ashaley et al [55] identified the RCA4 model forced by CCCma-CanESM2 as one of the top-performing models. Our results agree with this finding and add value by providing a list of additional top-performing model runs (and for a bigger domain) over West Africa.…”

Section: Rcm Performance Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intraseasonal Precipitation Variability over West Africa under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warming Scenarios: Results from CORDEX RCMs

Ogega

Gyampoh

Mistry

2020

Climate

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This study assessed the performance of 24 simulations, from five regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), in representing spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation over West Africa, compared to observations. The top five performing RCM simulations were used to assess future precipitation changes over West Africa, under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming levels (GWLs), following the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. The performance evaluation and future change assessment were done using a set of seven ‘descriptors’ of West African precipitation namely the simple precipitation intensity index (SDII), the consecutive wet days (CWD), the number of wet days index (R1MM), the number of wet days with moderate and heavy intensity precipitation (R10MM and R30MM, respectively), and annual and June to September daily mean precipitation (ANN and JJAS, respectively). The performance assessment and future change outlook were done for the CORDEX–Africa subdomains of north West Africa (WA-N), south West Africa (WA-S), and a combination of the two subdomains. While the performance of RCM runs was descriptor- and subregion- specific, five model runs emerged as top performers in representing precipitation characteristics over both WA-N and WA-S. The five model runs are CCLM4 forced by ICHEC-EC-EARTH (r12i1p1), RCA4 forced by CCCma-CanESM2 (r1i1p1), RACMO22T forced by MOHC-HadGEM2-ES (r1i1p1), and the ensemble means of simulations made by CCLM4 and RACMO22T. All precipitation descriptors recorded a reduction under the two warming levels, except the SDII which recorded an increase. Unlike the WA-N that showed less frequency and more intense precipitation, the WA-S showed increased frequency and intensity. Given the potential impact that these projected changes may have on West Africa’s socioeconomic activities, adjustments in investment may be required to take advantage of (and enhance system resilience against damage that may result from) the potential changes in precipitation.

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Performance evaluation of Africa CORDEX regional climate models: case of Kpong irrigation scheme, Ghana

Cited by 13 publications

References 37 publications

Modelling impacts of climate change on coastal West African rainfall

Modelling impacts of climate change on coastal West African rainfall

Assessing impacts of future climate on the crop water requirement and growth period. A case of Lake Hawassa watershed, Ethiopia

Intraseasonal Precipitation Variability over West Africa under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warming Scenarios: Results from CORDEX RCMs

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