Intraseasonal Precipitation Variability over West Africa under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warming Scenarios: Results from CORDEX RCMs

Ogega, Obed M.; Gyampoh, Benjamin Apraku; Mistry, Malcolm

doi:10.3390/cli8120143

Cited by 6 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 68 publications

(70 reference statements)

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“…In this study Regional Climate Model RCA4 driven by the GCM CCCma-CanESM2 was used. This RCM-GCM combination has better performance in simulating observed rainfall over West African regions and is among top performing models among several others as reported many studies (Ogega et al, 2020;Ashaley et al, 2020;Akinsanola et al, 2018). Coastal…”

Section: Future Climate Outlook For Coastal West Africamentioning

confidence: 82%

Modelling impacts of climate change on coastal West African rainfall

Ndehedehe

Usman²,

Okwuashi

et al. 2021

Model. Earth Syst. Environ.

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Several tropical regions of the world, including West Africa are strong climatic hotspots where the increase in extreme climatic events (e.g., droughts) impacts on water resources and hydroecological systems. Even though the West African Sahel has been widely studied, reports on the rainfall climatology of coastal West Africa are considerably limited. Assessing the evolutionary changes in rainfall in this region is crucial to improving understanding on the impacts of global climate systems on rainfall variability. The main aim of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the characteristics (mean annual, wettest month, driest month, and mean monthly) of coastal West African rainfall using General Circulation Model and two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios).Climate teleconnection induced rainfall is quantified using the partial least squares regression, and the dominant patterns of rainfall variability in the region are also assessed. The results indicate that areas along the coast with leading modes of rainfall variability and characterized by bimodal rainfall patterns are projected to receive highest rainfall in the mid and end of the century. However, inland areas are expected to receive low rainfall under the influence of both emission scenarios. An exception to this is the inland middle belt in Nigeria, which is projected to receive more rainfall than its surrounding areas. These results imply an intensification of the water cycle along the coastal region that could lead to increasing propensity of flood and drought events. Finally, Togo, Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, Benin are hotspots in coastal West Africa where climate teleconnection patterns induce changes in rainfall.

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Section: Future Climate Outlook For Coastal West Africamentioning

confidence: 82%

Modelling impacts of climate change on coastal West African rainfall

Ndehedehe

Usman²,

Okwuashi

et al. 2021

Model. Earth Syst. Environ.

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“…The evaluation was applied to historical data from ERA5 and ARC2 and observational data (Figure A4). In addition, we used RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5, although the latter represents the most realistic warming scenario considering today's global greenhouse gas emission trajectory [47,48] and has been widely used for the analysis of projections in sub-Saharan Africa [49][50][51][52]. Prediction data from CORDEX models were collected pertaining to 2030, 2050, and 2081.…”

Section: Data Analysis Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission in Southern Côte d’Ivoire, West Africa

Doumbia,

Coulibaly,

Silué

et al. 2023

IJERPH

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Malaria continues to be a major public health concern with a substantial burden in Africa. Even though it has been widely demonstrated that malaria transmission is climate-driven, there have been very few studies assessing the relationship between climate variables and malaria transmission in Côte d’Ivoire. We used the VECTRI model to predict malaria transmission in southern Côte d’Ivoire. First, we tested the suitability of VECTRI in modeling malaria transmission using ERA5 temperature data and ARC2 rainfall data. We then used the projected climatic data pertaining to 2030, 2050, and 2080 from a set of 14 simulations from the CORDEX-Africa database to compute VECTRI outputs. The entomological inoculation rate (EIR) from the VECTRI model was well correlated with the observed malaria cases from 2010 to 2019, including the peaks of malaria cases and the EIR. However, the correlation between the two parameters was not statistically significant. The VECTRI model predicted an increase in malaria transmissions in both scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) for the time period 2030 to 2080. The monthly EIR for RCP8.5 was very high (1.74 to 1131.71 bites/person) compared to RCP4.5 (0.48 to 908 bites/person). These findings call for greater efforts to control malaria that take into account the impact of climatic factors.

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“…According to Ta (2016), its measurement is a major consideration in the tropics as it contributes significantly to hydrological and climate studies. In addition, future trends and changes in weather and climate extremes have been studied in West Africa (Sylla et al, 2015;Sarr and Camara, 2017;Diedhiou et al, 2018;Ogega et al, 2020;Didi et al, 2020;Yapo et al, 2020). These studies mainly used indices including dry and wet spells defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) to study the spatiotemporal evolution of temperature and precipitation extremes (Klein Tank et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Dry and Wet Spells over West Africa Using Markov chain Approach

Basse,

Camara,

Diba

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The study examines projected changes in dry- and wet-spell probabilities in West Africa using a Markov chain approach. Four simulations of regional climate models from the CORDEX-Africa program were used to analyze projected changes in intraseasonal variability. The results show an increase in the probability of having a dry day, a dry day preceding a wet day and a dry day preceding a dry day, and a decrease in the probability of wet days in the Sahel region under anthropogenic forcing scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The decrease in wet days is stronger in the far future and under the RCP8.5 scenario (up to -30%). The study also finds that the probability of consecutive dry days (lasting at least 7 days and 10 days) is expected to increase in the Western Sahel, the Central Sahel, and the Sudanian Area under both scenarios, with stronger increases in the RCP8.5 scenario. In contrast, the decrease is expected over the Guinea Coast, with the changes more important under the RCP4.5. These changes in dry- and wet-spell probabilities are important for water management decisions and risk reduction in the energy and agricultural sectors. The study also highlights the need for decision-makers to implement mitigation and adaptation policies to minimize the adverse effects of climate change.

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Intraseasonal Precipitation Variability over West Africa under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warming Scenarios: Results from CORDEX RCMs

Cited by 6 publications

References 68 publications

Modelling impacts of climate change on coastal West African rainfall

Modelling impacts of climate change on coastal West African rainfall

Effects of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission in Southern Côte d’Ivoire, West Africa

Projected Changes in Dry and Wet Spells over West Africa Using Markov chain Approach

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