Performance evaluation and hydrological trend detection of a reservoir under climate change condition

Abstract

Water is the key of development and stability of any region. Under climate change condition, water systems are less reliable and more vulnerable. In this study, performance of Saline reservoir in Odisha, India has been evaluated under the climate change condition. The study mainly focused on the trend analysis for identified the temporal changes in precipitation and inflow time series using Mann-Kendall test, quantification of inflows to reservoir using ARNO model and performance evaluation of reservoir using WEAP model under climate change condition. In the results, it has been observed that there is no significant trend for annual, seasonal and for any monthly rainfall. Variation in precipitation shows that rainy days are decreasing whereas number of intense rainy days ([100 mm) are increasing. A significant rising trend with test statistic value of ?3.18 is observed for daily inflow series at 95 % confidence level. Evaluation of inflow to reservoir, ARNO model shows that the change in simulated flow is directly proportional to the change in rainfall. In order to 25 % Change, decrease or increase in rainfall amount resulted in equal amount of decrease or increase in the inflow. Performance evaluation of reservoir using WEAP model shows that if inflows reduced by 20 % there would be a decrease in supply reliability and it would not be possible to increase supplies. Reducing live storage by 10 % influence supply delivered in May and June, but again has little impact on the rest of the year.

Joint Modeling of Precipitation and Temperature Using Copula Theory for Current and Future Prediction under Climate Change Scenarios in Arid Lands (Case Study, Kerman Province, Iran)

“…Knowing the temporal variation of temperature and its relationship with other climate variables is very important for climate planning [28]. e precipitation and temperature have very high temporal variations [29,30]. e dependence of precipitation to temperature causes its high variation over the time [27].…”

Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of a small watershed using semi-distributed model

“…Water availability is one of the vital components and responsible for ecosystem, human livelihood, crop production and hydroelectric power production (Grabow et al 2013;Johnston and Smakhtin 2014;Mialhe et al 2015). For example, larger reservoir spillways and drainage waterways will be required where runoff is expected to increase, and higher water supply storage needed where runoff is expected to decrease (Sethi et al 2015;. The impacts of climate change on hydrology of watersheds are usually evaluated by defining scenarios for changes in climatic inputs to a hydrological model and these scenarios based on the futuristic emissions of greenhouse gases (Gosain et al 2006;Hossain 2014;Johnston and Smakhtin 2014;Srinivasan et al 1998).…”

Kecenderungan dan Perubahan Hujan Ekstrem Harian di Pulau Madura

“…Hal ini disebabkan sistem sumber daya air seperti bendungan dan waduk dirancang dan dioperasikan dengan asumsi hidrologi stasioner. Penelitian yang dilakukan oleh (Sethi et al, 2015) tentang kecenderungan curah hujan terhadap besaran aliran yang masuk ke waduk di Odisha, India menunjukkan hasil bahwa kenaikan dan penurunan aliran yang masuk ke dalam waduk berbanding lurus dengan kecenderungan curah hujan yang terjadi. Hal ini mengindikasikan perubahan kecenderungan yang terjadi dapat mengakibatkan sistem yang telah dirancang menjadi tidak sesuai dengan kebutuhan dan tidak memenuhi tujuan yang diinginkan secara memadai.…”

“…Hal ini mengindikasikan perubahan kecenderungan yang terjadi dapat mengakibatkan sistem yang telah dirancang menjadi tidak sesuai dengan kebutuhan dan tidak memenuhi tujuan yang diinginkan secara memadai. Analisis tentang kecenderungan curah hujan juga digunakan untuk mengetahui dampak kegiatan manusia seperti urbanisasi, deforesasi, dan perubahan dalam praktek pertanian terhadap aspek hidrologi seperti curah hujan (Kundzewicz dan Robson, 2000;Sethi et al, 2015).…”