Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of a small watershed using semi-distributed model

Pandey, Brij Kishor; Gosain, A. K.; Paul, George; Khare, Deepak

doi:10.1007/s13201-016-0383-6

Cited by 45 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 33 publications

(32 reference statements)

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“…Watershed models, such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) [27], coupled with regional climate models (RCM) have been used to assess the impacts of CC on the water balance components (WBCs) of watersheds [27,28]. There is a number of hydrological modeling and climate change studies on the leeward side of Oahu Island [19,21,22,29,30].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Wetland Restoration and Climate Change Impacts on Water Balance Components of the Heeia Coastal Wetland in Hawaii

et al. 2019

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Hydrological modeling is an important tool that can be used to assess water resources’ availability and sustainability that are necessary for food security and ecological health of coastal regions. In this study, we assessed the impacts of land use and climate changes on water balance components (WBCs) of the Heeia coastal wetland. We developed a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to capture the unique characteristics of the Hawaiian Islands, including its volcanic soil’s nature and high initial infiltration rates. We used the sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm to assess the sensitivity and uncertainty of WBCs under different climate change scenarios. Results of the statistical analysis of daily streamflow simulations showed that the model performance was within the generally acceptable criteria. Under future climate scenarios, rainfall change was the determinant factor most negatively impacting WBCs. Recharge and baseflow components had the highest sensitivity to the combined effects of land use and climate changes, especially during dry season. The uncertainty analysis indicated that the streamflow is projected to slightly increase by the middle of 21st century, but expected to decline by 40% during the late 21st century of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Wetland Restoration and Climate Change Impacts on Water Balance Components of the Heeia Coastal Wetland in Hawaii

et al. 2019

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“…They reported that a 25% increase in rainfall leads to a 50% increase in the river discharge over Upper Blue Nile Basin. The increase in streamflow due to rainfall increment was also discussed by Pandey et al (2017); they revealed that a 28% increase in annual rainfall may result in streamflow increased by approximately 49% from their study in the Armur watershed in Godavari river basin, India. The decrease in streamflow during the rainy season associated with the rainfall reduction corresponds with the findings of Worqlul et al (2018) in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Responses in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

Teklay

Dile

Asfaw

et al. 2020

Preprint

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BackgroundHydrologic systems have been changing due to the impact of climate change and climate variability. The impacts of climate change are set to increase in the future due to the rise of global warming. Quantifying the impact of climate change on the spatial and temporal hydrological processes is important for integrated water resource management. The Lake Tana basin, which is the source of the Upper Blue Nile, is vulnerable to climate change and variability. This study was carried out in the four major tributary watersheds of the Lake Tana basin: Gilgel Abay, Gumara, Ribb, and Megech. The climate model and hydrological model was used to (i) to evaluate the performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for study watershed, (ii) to assess the future rainfall and temperature variability and change in the study watershed, and (iii) to examine the impact of climate change on future watershed hydrology. The study used dynamically downscaled climate data for the baseline (2010–2015) and future period (2046–2051) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The climate scenarios were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a 4-km horizontal resolution. A linear scaling method was applied to minimize model biases. The SWAT model was used to estimate the baseline and future hydrology using the bias-corrected climate data. ResultsThe performance of the SWAT model was ‘good’ to ‘very good’ for both the calibration and validation periods, with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values between 0.71 to 0.92. The projected changes in rainfall vary with seasons and watershed under both scenarios. On average, annual rainfall may increase by 9.8% and 21.2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Minimum temperature may rise by 1.68 °C and 2.26 °C while maximum temperature may increase by 1.65 °C and 2.75 °C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The changes in climate may cause an increase in surface runoff by 20.9% and 46.5% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, while the evapotranspiration increase by 4.7% and 12.2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. ConclusionThe findings provide valuable insights to implement appropriate water management strategies to mitigate and adapt to the negative impacts of climate change and variability on the Lake Tana basin, and other regions which have similar agro-ecology.

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“…Andreini et al [62] concluded that the large changes that occur in surface runoff correspond to a lesser change in precipitation. Additionally, in India, Pandey et al [63] quantified the climate change impact (2071-2100) in the Armur basin using SWAT, suggesting that evapotranspiration and water production will increase 28% and 49%, respectively.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrological Balance in Basins of South-Central Chile

Martínez-Retureta

Aguayo

Abreu

et al. 2021

Water

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In this study, the SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model is implemented to determine the effect of climate change on various hydrological components in two basins located in the foothills of the Andes: the Quino and Muco river basins. The water cycle is analyzed by comparing the model results to climatic data observed in the past (1982–2016) to understand its trend behaviors. Then, the variations and geographical distribution of the components of the hydrological cycle were analyzed using the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5 climate scenario to model two periods considering the immediate future (2020–2049) and intermediate future (2050–2079). In this way, in the study area, it is predicted that yearly average temperatures will increase up to 1.7 °C and that annual average precipitation will decrease up to 210 mm for the intermediate future. Obtained results show that the analyzed parameters presented the same trend behavior for both periods of time; however, a greater impact can be expected in the intermediate future. According to the spatial distribution, the impact worsens for all the parameters as the elevation increases in both basins. The model depicted that yearly average evapotranspiration would increase around 5.26% and 5.81% for Quino and Muco basins, respectively, due to the large increase in temperature. This may cause, when combined with the precipitation lessening, a decrease around 9.52% and 9.73% of percolation, 2.38% and 1.76% of surface flow, and 7.44% and 8.14% of groundwater for Quino and Muco basins, respectively, with a consequent decrease of the water yield in 5.25% and 4.98% in the aforementioned watersheds, respectively.

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Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of a small watershed using semi-distributed model

Cited by 45 publications

References 33 publications

Assessment of Wetland Restoration and Climate Change Impacts on Water Balance Components of the Heeia Coastal Wetland in Hawaii

Assessment of Wetland Restoration and Climate Change Impacts on Water Balance Components of the Heeia Coastal Wetland in Hawaii

Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Responses in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

Estimation of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrological Balance in Basins of South-Central Chile

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