Estimation of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrological Balance in Basins of South-Central Chile

Abstract

In this study, the SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model is implemented to determine the effect of climate change on various hydrological components in two basins located in the foothills of the Andes: the Quino and Muco river basins. The water cycle is analyzed by comparing the model results to climatic data observed in the past (1982–2016) to understand its trend behaviors. Then, the variations and geographical distribution of the components of the hydrological cycle were analyzed using the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5 climate scenario to model two periods considering the immediate future (2020–2049) and intermediate future (2050–2079). In this way, in the study area, it is predicted that yearly average temperatures will increase up to 1.7 °C and that annual average precipitation will decrease up to 210 mm for the intermediate future. Obtained results show that the analyzed parameters presented the same trend behavior for both periods of time; however, a greater impact can be expected in the intermediate future. According to the spatial distribution, the impact worsens for all the parameters as the elevation increases in both basins. The model depicted that yearly average evapotranspiration would increase around 5.26% and 5.81% for Quino and Muco basins, respectively, due to the large increase in temperature. This may cause, when combined with the precipitation lessening, a decrease around 9.52% and 9.73% of percolation, 2.38% and 1.76% of surface flow, and 7.44% and 8.14% of groundwater for Quino and Muco basins, respectively, with a consequent decrease of the water yield in 5.25% and 4.98% in the aforementioned watersheds, respectively.

Desiccation Tolerance of Epiphytic Macrolichens in an Evergreen Temperate Rain Forest (Alerce Costero National Park, Chile)

“…Pseudocyphellaria coerulescens and Sticta caulescens showed decreases in Fv/Fm of 59% and 50%, respectively, after thirteen days. This was in accordance with the observed higher sensitivity to environmental stress among cyanolichens [ 25 , 58 ] that, in contrast to the green algal species, do not show net photosynthesis when hydrated by water vapor alone but require liquid water [ 16 , 59 , 60 , 61 ]. The fruticose lichens Bunodophoron australe and Leifidium tenerum , which were found only in the B strata, showed higher sensitivity to dehydration (31.7% and 26.5% FvFm decay, respectively) compared with foliose lichens.…”

“…We showed an important decay of photosynthetic potential in response to dehydration and low light saturation points in most evergreen forest lichens. To a certain extent, these findings allow us to predict the vulnerability of species with high water requirements or low radiation tolerance in the face of a scenario of water stress expected in the region in the context of climatic oscillations and global warming [ 60 , 61 ]. It is worth highlighting the importance of developing long-term eco–physiological studies that allow us to understand the response and adaptation of these organisms that are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change.…”

The Effects of Land-Use and Climatic Changes on the Hydrological Environment in the Qinling Mountains of Shaanxi Province

“…With the daily random simulation of various variables in China, the model is more suitable for China, and its prediction results are more in line with the actual situation [48]. Different from related studies, this study uses a suitable weather generator for China to simulate and predict the future climate in the study area, while most studies used the WorldClim database [49] and RCP scenarios [50,51]. Although these climatic simulation results are widely used, they always have problems with data accuracy and the downscaling effect, which affect the accuracy of the results to a certain extent.…”

Heavy Metal, Waste, COVID-19, and Rapid Industrialization in This Modern Era—Fit for Sustainable Future

“…Because of socioeconomic and climate changes, this scenario is predicted to deteriorate in the future [62]. The hydrological cycle can forecast several climate change consequences [64]. In e-waste operations, there is still a severe lack of evidence about the origins and characteristics of heavy metal pollution.…”