Perceptions of Present and Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability for Agricultural Systems in the Western Mediterranean Region

Abstract

Many Mediterranean countries have experienced water shortages during the last 20 years and future climate change projections foresee further pressure on water resources. This will have significant implications for irrigation water management in agricultural systems in the future. Through qualitative and quantitative empirical research methods carried out on a case study on four Mediterranean farming systems located in Oristano, Italy, we sought to understand the relationship between farmers' perceptions of climate change (i.e., increased temperature and decreased precipitation) and of present and future water availability for agriculture as forecasted by climatic and crop models. We also explored asymmetries between farmers' perceptions and present and future climate change and water scenarios as well as factors influencing perceptions. Our hypotheses were that farmers' perceptions are the main drivers of actual water management practices and that sustainable practices can emerge from learning spaces designed from the understanding of the gaps between perceptions and scientific evidences. Results showed that most farmers perceived that climate change is occurring or will occur in their area. They also perceived that there has been an increased temperature trend, but also increased precipitation. Therefore, they are convinced that they have and will have enough irrigation water for agriculture in the near future, while climate change projections foresee an increasing pressure on water resources in the Mediterranean region. Such results suggest the need for (i) irrigation management policies that take into account farmers' perceptions in order to promote virtuous behaviors and improve irrigation water use efficiency; (ii) new, well-designed learning spaces to improve the understanding on climate change expectations in the near future in order to support effective adaptive responses at the farm and catchment scales.

Re-Staging La Rasgioni: Lessons Learned from Transforming a Traditional Form of Conflict Resolution to Engage Stakeholders in Agricultural Water Governance

“…This is consistent with the findings of Nguyen et al [42], which evidenced the need for further investment in well-designed learning spaces for farmers and entrepreneurs to promote anticipated virtuous and voluntary behaviors to improve water use efficiency and facilitate their understanding of climate change expectations in the future. In fact, the director of the dairy cooperative, which is pumping out 1400 m 3 water day −1 of groundwater with higher (but steady) salinity than in the recent past, recognized that the cooperative members were not prepared for a possible deterioration in their well water quality.…”

“…A participatory action research process started in 2008 [21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37] and involved interdisciplinary teams composed of agronomists, economists, animal scientists, meteorologists, and social scientists. This research pathway was able to consolidate a long-term trust relationship between researchers and local stakeholders [38][39][40][41][42] and revealed asymmetries between the effective cooperation among livestock farmers and the fragmentation of competences and actions among the public institutional actors in the same catchment. Moreover, following the implementation of the Nitrate Directive, the initial tension between farmers and fishermen came to also include policy-makers in different positions in the governance system.…”

“…In this sense, the La Rasgioni event achieved unprecedented results, as it provided both participants and observers with a comprehensive picture of the water dilemma and, most importantly, because it created a space for dialogue and confrontation among actors who perceived this as one of the main gaps within the water governance system. A range of theories of social and experiential learning influenced the design of the La Rasgioni process, alongside the various practitioners' experiences of social processes and working with the community [42][43][44][45][46][47][48]. Closer scrutiny of what occurred during La Rasgioni using some of these theories may help to illuminate and also provide a structure for how to move from deliberation to collective action to address some of the water governance issues of Arborea.…”

Simulating the Evolution of the Land and Water Resource System under Different Climates in Heilongjiang Province, China

“…In Scenario 5, the model slowed the economic development rate. There is more literature on setting different scenarios [27][28][29][30][31][32][33], and Table 2 shows the details used when setting each scenario in this paper. Based on the above analysis, this work selected the net irrigation quota for paddy fields, the water quota for industrial use, forestland area, annual change rate of farmland area, and annual growth rate of gross industrial output value to set different scenarios within a reasonable range, according to government programs at the planning horizon, to simulate the evolution of the land and water resource system in the planning years.…”

“…In Scenario 5, the model slowed the economic development rate. There is more literature on setting different scenarios [27][28][29][30][31][32][33], and Table 2 shows the details used when setting each scenario in this paper. …”