Perception of randomness and predicting uncertain events

Tyszka, Tadeusz; Zielonka, Piotr; Dacey, Raymond; Sawicki, Przemysław

doi:10.1080/13546780701677669

Cited by 34 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…This preference even increased over the course of the experiment, suggesting that feedback could worsen rather than improve participants' choices. Together, these results, in line with those by others (Kareev, 1995;Oskarsson et al, 2009;Tyszka et al, 2008) support our two predictions and provide strong evidence for positive recency according to which people are more likely to look for, detect, and exploit streaky sequences as compared to alternating ones-an adaptive strategy in environments characterized by clumpy resources (Wilke & Barrett, 2009). This evidence of negative autocorrelation and the lack of improvement over time was maladaptive in the sense that it did not maximize payoffs and violated the rational standard of Bayesian updating.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

“…However, this explanation is difficult to test directly with the data at hand. For instance, people's assumptions about possible patterns also depend on what they think about the process that generated the sequence of events (Ayton & Fischer, 2004;Tyszka et al, 2008). However, when the data generating process was left unspecified in the present experiment, most people still exhibited positive recency, again pointing to its use as a default assumption.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 63%

“…However, in the majority of studies, random sequences were predominantly perceived as positively autocorrelated, or streaky, rather than negatively autocorrelated-an effect that is sometimes referred to as the "hot hand" belief (Oskarsson et al, 2009;Tyszka, Zielonka, Dacey, & Sawicki, 2008;Wilke & Barrett, 2009). The opposite perception of negative autocorrelation, sometimes labeled the gambler's fallacy, also occurs but seems to be more rare (Bennis, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Expectations of clumpy resources influence predictions of sequential events

Scheibehenne

Wilke

Todd

2011

Evolution and Human Behavior

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When predicting the next outcome in a sequence of events, people often appear to expect streaky patterns, such as that sport players can develop a "hot hand," even if the sequence is actually random. This expectation, referred to as positive recency, can be adaptive in environments characterized by resources that are clustered across space or time (e.g., expecting to find multiple berries on separate bushes). But how strong is this disposition towards positive recency? If people perceive random sequences as streaky, will there be situations in which they forego a payoff because they prefer an unpredictable random environment over an exploitable but alternating pattern? To find out, 238 participants repeatedly chose to bet on the next outcome of one of two sequences of (binary) events, presented next to each other. One sequence displayed events at random while the other sequence was either more streaky (positively autocorrelated) or more alternating (negatively autocorrelated) than chance. The degree of autocorrelation varied in a between-subject design. Most people preferred to predict purely random sequences over those with moderate negative autocorrelation and thus missed the opportunity for above-chance payoff. Positive recency persisted despite extensive feedback and the opportunity to learn more rewarding behavior over time. Further, most participants' choice strategies were best described by a win-stay/lose-shift strategy, adaptive in clumpy or streaky environments. We discuss the implications regarding an evolved human tendency to expect streaky patterns, even if the sequence is actually random.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 63%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Expectations of clumpy resources influence predictions of sequential events

Scheibehenne

Wilke

Todd

2011

Evolution and Human Behavior

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“…achieve more wins) but not for error avoidance suggests a strategic focus on the long-run. These results are noteworthy because decision makers tend to adopt a shortrun rather than a long-run focus as uncertainty increases [41]. The present study found that provision of a recommender promoted a long-run or strategic focus, at least among experts.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 49%

The Effect of Contextual and Personal Factors on the Use of Probabilistic Recommenders in E-Markets

O'Hare¹,

Phillips²,

Moss³

2009

TOERGJ

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E-markets of the future may extend to real-time, on-line auctions of, for example, real estate or antiques. To operate successfully in real-time e-markets, knowledge-based recommenders may become indispensable. Real-time emarket trading decisions typically take place in dynamic and uncertain environments in which high stakes, time pressure, multiple players, and feedback loops are key characteristics. A 2x2x2 design was used in which risk, time pressure and availability of a probabilistic recommender were manipulated. The effect of the recommender on the confidence and performance of three groups of decision-makers (novices, journeymen and expert) was examined. Finally, deductive logic ability was assessed. 84 participants engaged in a laboratory-based computer simulation of a customized version of Blackjack that approximated a real-world e-market decision environment. Recommender use differed with expertise level. Novices were significantly more confident when the recommender was available and used its advice to avoid decision errors. The recommender did not alter the confidence of journeymen and experts but they used it to avoid errors as contextual factors became more complex. There were significant group differences in recommender use to improve strategic outcomes: recommender use enhanced experts' performance, damaged journeymen's and had little effect on novices'. In addition, deductive logic ability was significantly related to fewer decision errors. These results suggest that, to be effective in dynamic e-market environments, knowledge-based recommenders should be tailored to individual differences, particularly decision-makers' expertise and reasoning ability.

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“…A second experiment showed that (1) the higher the alternation rate of a sequence, p(a), the more likely it is to be attributed to a chance mechanism, and (2) the lower the alternation rate of a sequence, the more likely it is to be attributed to skilled human performance. Further support for these findings has been provided by Burns and Corpus (2004), who showed that when the generating mechanism of a sequence is believed to be less random, participants tend to expect the sequence to continue in a similar manner, and by Tyszka, Zielonka, Dacey, and Sawicki (2008), who showed that people tend to expect more alternations when they believe a sequence is generated by random devices such as a coin or a fortune teller. (For a thorough examination of the impacts of beliefs associated with the generating mechanisms on the perception of sequences, see also Caruso, Waytz, & Epley, 2010;Croson & Sundali, 2005;Gold & Hester, 2008;and Olivola & Oppenheimer, 2008.…”

Section: Perception Of Sequencesmentioning

confidence: 75%

Extending the two faces of subjective randomness: From the gambler’s and hot-hand fallacies toward a hierarchy of binary sequence perception

Fischer

Savranevski

2015

Mem Cogn

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In this study, we examined perceptions of binary sequences under uncertainty in an attempt to depict a holistic and unifying framework. The first experiment applied a projection method that motivated participants to observe binary series and provide descriptions of their possible underlying mechanisms or processes. This procedure revealed four distinct perceptual categories: two previously studied categories of chance mechanisms and human performance, associated with the gambler's and hot-hand fallacies, and two newly identified categories-periods and processes and traits and preferences. The next three experiments tested the associations between the four categories and the alternation rates of the observed sequences under three categorical decisions structures: screening, discrimination, and classification. The results reveal the relativity of binary sequence perception. They show that the categories of chance mechanisms and periods and processes reflected rather stable perception across all tested conditions, whereas the other two categories were more susceptible to the context in which they were embedded. The findings support previous research on the gambler's fallacy and show that the hot-hand fallacy is confined to comparisons of human performance and chance mechanisms. A proposed developmental hierarchy suggests that all four categories embody basic cognitive structures that assist in detecting, decoding, and interpreting both inanimate and social aspects of the environment.

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Perception of randomness and predicting uncertain events

Cited by 34 publications

References 21 publications

Expectations of clumpy resources influence predictions of sequential events

Expectations of clumpy resources influence predictions of sequential events

The Effect of Contextual and Personal Factors on the Use of Probabilistic Recommenders in E-Markets

Extending the two faces of subjective randomness: From the gambler’s and hot-hand fallacies toward a hierarchy of binary sequence perception

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