Percentile via Polynomial Chaos Expansion: Bridging Robust Optimization with Reliability

Marchi, Mariapia; Rigoni, Enrico; Russo, Rosario; Clarich, Alberto

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-49325-1_3

Cited by 1 publication

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“…PCE is a widely used meta‐model in the field of uncertainty quantification (UQ), such as uncertainty propagation, sensitivity analysis, multiobjective optimization, and stochastic finite element analysis …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Active learning polynomial chaos expansion for reliability analysis by maximizing expected indicator function prediction error

Cheng

Lü

2020

Numerical Meth Engineering

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Assessing the failure probability of complex aeronautical structure is a difficult task in presence of uncertainties. In this paper, active learning polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is developed for reliability analysis. The proposed method firstly assigns a Gaussian Process (GP) prior to the model response, and the covariance function of this GP is defined by the inner product of PCE basis function. Then, we show that a PCE model can be derived by the posterior mean of the GP, and the posterior variance is obtained to measure the local prediction error as Kriging model. Also, the expectation of the prediction variance is derived to measure the overall accuracy of the obtained PCE model. Then, a learning function, named expected indicator function prediction error (EIFPE), is proposed to update the design of experiment of PCE model for reliability analysis.This learning function is developed under the framework of the variance-bias decomposition. It selects new points sequentially by maximizing the EIFPE that considers both the variance and bias information, and it provides a dynamic balance between global exploration and local exploitation. Finally, several test functions and engineering applications are investigated, and the results are compared with the widely used Kriging model combined with U and expected feasibility function learning function. Results show that the proposed method is efficient and accurate for complex engineering applications.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%