Perceived Risk and Social Control: Do Sanctions Really Deter?

Paternoster, Raymond; Saltzman, Linda E.; Waldo, Gordon P.; Chiricos, Theodore G.

doi:10.2307/3053589

Cited by 266 publications

(137 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…They have for instance studied the effects of overconfidence (Dunning et al 1990;, hyperbolic discounting (Laibson 1997;Loughran et al 2012) and ambiguity aversion (Ellsberg 1961;Loughran et al 2011) on the decision to commit crime. This ties into older work on a self-serving bias in the estimated effect of sanctions (Nagin and Pogarsky 2003), the perceived fairness of sanctions (Piquero et al 2004), the motivating force of identity (Paternoster and Bushway 2008) and of morality (Paternoster and Simpson 1996;Brezina and Piquero 2007) and the ensuing disciplining effect of shaming (Rebellon et al 2010), as well as work on impulsivity Nagin and Pogarsky 2003), on the perception of the risk of sanctions (Paternoster et al 1983;Klepper and Nagin 1989;Nagin and Paternoster 1991) and on inter-individual differences (Nagin and Paternoster 1993;Nagin and Paternoster 1994;Piquero et al 2011;.…”

Section: Research Questionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Selfishness as a Potential Cause of Crime - A Prison Experiment

2013

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Section: Research Questionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Selfishness as a Potential Cause of Crime - A Prison Experiment

2013

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“…Whether the youth lives with both his natural parents, whether his mother was a teenager at birth, family income, and the presence of gangs in the neighborhood do not a ect an individual's reported beliefs about the probability of arrest. Of the individual characteristics other than race, only the e ects of Peabody Individual Achievement T est PIAT scores for math in percentiles, 17 are statistically signi cant, suggesting a positive relationship between the perceived probability o f arrest and math ability. Counter to an`ability to evade' arrest hypothesis, a 10 higher PIAT score is associated with a 1 higher perceived chance of arrest.…”

Section: An Examplementioning

confidence: 96%

“…Blacks also believe that they face a lower probability of spending time in jail once arrested, while hispanics feel that they are more likely to be released without charge or with a ne if arrested. Individuals from families with a higher income consider themselves less likely to face nes or jail 17 Note that PIAT scores are only observed for individuals with less than 10 years of schooling nearly everyone age 16. To maintain the representativeness of the sample, all individuals age 16 are dropped from regressions including PIAT scores, making the sample representative of males ages 12-15. time if arrested.…”

Section: An Examplementioning

confidence: 99%

“…2 Studies using actual police, arrest, or punishment measures include Blumestein, et al, 1978, Cameron, 1988, Ehrlich, 1973,1981, Grogger, 1991, Levitt, 1997, 1998a, 1998b, Myers, 1983, Tauchen, Witte, and Griesinger, 1994, Trumbull, 1989, Waldfogel, 1993, and Witte, 1980. 3 Criminologists studying the link between perceptions and crime have reported that individuals engaged in crime tend to lower their perceived probability of arrest, referring to these e ects as`experiential e ects ' Minor and Harry, 1982, Paternoster, et al, 1983, Piliavin, et al, 1986, Saltzman, et al, 1982. The main emphasis of these studies has been to point out the aws inherent in using cross-sectional data on perceptions and criminal behavior to estimate deterrence e ects, since the reported behavior is typically prior to the perceptions measure.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Theoretical and Empirical Study of Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System

Lochner

2001

SSRN Journal

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This paper examines perceptions of the criminal justice system held by y oung males using longitudinal survey data from the recent National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort and the National Youth Survey. First, a model is developed to study how perceptions respond to individual information about the probability o f arrest and how perceptions a ect criminal behavior. Then, the model is shown to be consistent with the data. Young males who engage in crime but are not arrested revise their perceived probability of arrest downward, while those who are arrested revise their probability u p wards. The perceived probability of arrest is then linked to subsequent criminal behavior youth with a lower perceived probability of arrest are signi cantly more likely to engage in crime during subsequent periods. Perceived probabilities of arrest appear to be idiosyncratic and individual-speci c. As a result, information about the arrests of others, local neighborhood conditions, and o cial arrest rates have little impact on the perceptions of any given individual about his own arrest rate.Another interesting feature of the data on perceptions includes the nding that young males typically report a higher probability of arrest than is actually observed in o cial arrest rates. Consistent with the model, perceived arrest probabilities among those engaged in crime are lower than those of non-criminals. Despite substantial heterogeneity in the perceived probability o f arrest across individuals, those perceptions are di cult to predict from standard background measures, ability, and neighborhood characteristics. Most notably, there do not appear to be substantial di erences in perceptions across race and ethnicity for most of the crimes studied.These ndings suggest that heterogeneity in perceptions may be an important cause for di erences in criminal participation across individuals. Furthermore, those perceptions can be in uenced by the justice system. A model of belief updating and criminal behavior that is consistent with the data suggests that policies enacted to change the actual probability o f arrest will have heterogeneous e ects on individuals with di erent crime and arrest histories, but increases in true arrest rates will lower crime. Since it may take time for information about changes in actual arrest rates to disseminate, changes in enforcement policy are likely to have lagged e ects on crime rates.

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“…Academic achievement in school is often considered an indicator of commitment to conformity in terms of both current peer acceptance and the recognition of future prospects (Paternoster, Saltzman, Waldo, and Chiricos, 1983). Undisciplined or deviant school behavior is more of a direct indicator of lack of normative commitment and involvement in unconventional activity.…”

Section: Social Bondingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sociological and Human Developmental Explanations of Crime: Conflict or Consensus?*

Denno

1985

Criminology

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This paper examines multidisciplinary correlates of delinquency in an attempt to integrate sociological and environmental theories of crime with human developmental and biological explanations of crime. Structural equation models are applied to assess links among biological. psychological, and environmental variables collected prospectively from birth through age 17 on a sample of 800 black children at high risk for learning and behavioral disorders. Results show that for both males and females, aggression and disciplinary problems in school during adolescence are the strongest predictors of repeat offense behavior. Whereas school achievement and family income and stability are also significant predictors of delinquency for males, early physical development is the next strongest predictor for females. Results indicate that some effects on delinquency also vary during different ages. It is suggested that behavioral and learning disorders have both sociological and developmental correlates and that adequate educational resources are necessary to ensure channels of “legitimate opportunities” for high ‐risk youths.

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Perceived Risk and Social Control: Do Sanctions Really Deter?

Cited by 266 publications

References 28 publications

Selfishness as a Potential Cause of Crime - A Prison Experiment

Selfishness as a Potential Cause of Crime - A Prison Experiment

A Theoretical and Empirical Study of Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System

Sociological and Human Developmental Explanations of Crime: Conflict or Consensus?*

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