Perbandingan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dan Metode Holt untuk Prediksi Kasus COVID-19 di Indonesia

Ihsan, Nur Hijrah As Salam Al; Dzakiyah, Hanifah Hanun; Liantoni, Febri

doi:10.31937/ti.v12i2.1689

Cited by 11 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…The exponential smoothing with trend method is used when the demand for an item is affected by the trend but not by season. This method smoothen the trend value by using parameters that are not the same as the parameters used in the original series (N. H. A. S. Al Ihsan et al, 2020). However, to forecast demand in the next period, this method requires a new smoothing value (level) and an estimate of its trend.…”

Section: Exponential Smoothing With Trend (Holt's Method)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Inventory Control Analysis with Continous Review System and Periodic Review System Methods at PT. XYZ

2022

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Companies must have various strategies in order to survive and face the competition in the retail industry, where the strategy can be in the form of inventory control. The objective of this research is to categorize products owned by PT. XYZ based on the ABC analysis method, to analyze the best forecasting method for PT. XYZ for Filo Compound, Meses Valentino and Mercolade Dark 1 KG, to analyze the total cost using Q-Method & P-Method, and last to compare among Q-Method, P-Method and PT. XYZ’s policy. By doing ABC analysis, company is able to know which products to be prioritized. Forecasting is the first step to find out how much demand is expected in the future by analyzing demand data from the previous period. By having the smallest error which is reflected by MAD and MSE value, Trend Projection is the best method for forecasting as compared to the other five methods. Furthermore, this research is calculating the total cost by using the Q method and P Method to find out the best method with the smallest total cost for PT. XYZ. Q method is the best for Filo Compound and Meses Valentino with the cost saving as much as Rp 38.582.771,08 and Rp 43.215.539,68. While for the Mercolade Dark 1 KG, P Method is the best method with the cost saving as much as Rp 200.290.337,56.

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Section: Exponential Smoothing With Trend (Holt's Method)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Inventory Control Analysis with Continous Review System and Periodic Review System Methods at PT. XYZ

2022

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“…(Santoso et al, 2021) Metode ini menunjukkan penurunan pembobotan secara eksponensial terhadap nilai observasi yang lebih terdahulu dengan memberikan nilai yang relatif lebih besar dibandingkan nilai pada observasi yang sudah ada sebelumnya. Penggunaan metode ini tidak terpengaruh oleh trend dan musim (Al Ihsan et al, 2020). Metode SES adalah suatu prosedur yang secara terus menerus memperbaiki prediksi dengan merata-rata nilai masa lalu dari suatu data deret waktu dengan cara menurun (eksponensial) Metode ini akan mengulang perhitungan secara terus menerus dengan menggunakan data terbaru setiap data akan diberikan bobot yang disimbolkan dengan α. Simbol α bisa ditentukan secara bebas yang dapat mengurangi kesalahan prediksi.…”

Section: B Single Exponential Smoothingunclassified

Prediksi Jumlah Masyarakat Terkontaminasi Covid-19 di Kota Samarinda Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing

et al. 2022

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Kemunculan Covid-19 pada tahun 2019 membuat ketakutan yang sangat mendalam bagi penduduk Wuhan china hingga merambah ke antero dunia dan penyebab menambahnya virus ini menjalar ke seluruh dunia dikarenakan ketakutan penduduk yang berdomisili di Wuhan china berbondong bondong pergi sehingga membawa virus tersebut, ke seluruh permukaan dunia, Salah satunya negara Indonesia hingga ke Kalimantan Timur, Kota Samarinda maka dengan ini penduduk Kalimantan Timur yang terkena dampak Virus ini, sebesar 78.492 manusia. Dengan Penelitian ini akan mencoba memprediksi jumlah masyarakat yang dikonfirmasi Covid-19 dengan menggunakan metode Single Exponential Smoothing di kota Samarinda, hasil prediksi dari penelitian ini dapat menjadi acuan pihak terkait, Sementara untuk perhitungan jumlah error dari prediksinya digunakan metode MSE (Mean Square Error) pendekatan ini dapat mengatur kesalahan peramalan yang cukup besar karena kesalahan itu dikuadratkan Nilai akurasi pada setiap metode dapat dipengaruhi oleh penentuan nilai pergerakan dan nilai bobot yang digunakan 32429517882,2549, Dan juga digunakan metode MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) MAPE menyatakan persentase kesalahan hasil peramalan terhadap data sebenarnya selama periode tertentu yang dapat memberikan informasi persentase kesalahan yang terlalu rendah atau terlalu tinggi, MAPE memiliki hasil 62% maka dengan hal ini semakin besar nilai MAPE maka semakin besar kesalahan hasil pendugaan

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“…Selanjutnya penelitian oleh Mukron, dkk memanfaatkan ARIMA dengan nilai MS 0,1744 [5]. Selain itu ada juga penelitian yang menggunakan Exponential Smoothing [6] dan Backpropagation [7]. Hasil penelitian pada metode yang telah disebutkan menunjukkan tingkat kesalahan yang relatif rendah.…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Prediksi Indeks Harga Konsumen Komoditas Makanan di Kota Surabaya menggunakan Support Vector Regression

2022

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In data mining, predictions are known to find knowledge about what will happen in the future. Predictions are usually made on time-series data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an index value derived from daily consumer price data. The results of the CPI calculation are derived from observations of commodity prices at the household consumer level, which are carried out routinely on a daily, weekly, bi-weekly, and monthly basis. CPI prediction can be done using a data mining algorithm, namely Support Vector Regression (SVR). SVR is part of the Support Vector Machine algorithm that functions to solve regression cases. SVR is a reliable algorithm in the case of regression because it can handle data overfitting well. The data used as input in this paper comes from 34 food commodity prices, and the output data is obtained from the CPI value data. The food commodity price data used is from Surabaya City. The data period used is from 2014-2020. The results of the implementation of SVR with 4 kernels show that the Polynomial kernel has the best error rate with a MAPE value of 4.31%.

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Perbandingan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dan Metode Holt untuk Prediksi Kasus COVID-19 di Indonesia

Cited by 11 publications

References 6 publications

Inventory Control Analysis with Continous Review System and Periodic Review System Methods at PT. XYZ

Inventory Control Analysis with Continous Review System and Periodic Review System Methods at PT. XYZ

Prediksi Jumlah Masyarakat Terkontaminasi Covid-19 di Kota Samarinda Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing

Prediksi Indeks Harga Konsumen Komoditas Makanan di Kota Surabaya menggunakan Support Vector Regression

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