Peramalan Jumlah Populasi Sapi Potong di Kalimantan Selatan Menggunakan Metode Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing dan  Trend Analysis

Jaya, Jaka Darma

doi:10.34128/jtai.v6i1.88

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Trend pergerakan data tersebut dapat berupa trendlinear, polynomial, exponential, logarithmic atau lainnya sesuai dengan pola data yang diolah. [12] Garis trend pada dasarnya garis regresi dan variabel bebas (x) merupakan variabel waktu. Trend garis lurus (linier) adalah suatu trend yang diramalkan naik atau turun secara garis lurus.…”

Section: Metode Trend Momentunclassified

Penerapan Metode Trend Moment Untuk Prediksi Permintaan Telur Ayam

Wulandari¹,

Helmiah²,

Rohminatin³

2022

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CV. Bintang Ternak Hessa Air Genting is one of the livestock companies engaged in the distribution and warehouse of chicken egg products, which is located in Hessa Air Genting Village, Asahan Regency. Based on the results of research and interviews conducted by researchers at CV. Bintang Ternak Hessa Air Genting, a problem that often occurs in the company is that there is often a shortage or accumulation of chicken egg products to be marketed, not in accordance with the number of requests from consumers. The purpose of this study is to apply the Trend Moment method to predict the number of Chicken Egg Demand in CV. Cattle Star Hessa Air Genting in the next few months based on the type of egg, namely A+, A, B, C, D, and E

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Section: Metode Trend Momentunclassified

Penerapan Metode Trend Moment Untuk Prediksi Permintaan Telur Ayam

Wulandari¹,

Helmiah²,

Rohminatin³

2022

bits

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Trend pergerakan data tersebut dapat berupa trend linear, polynomial, exponential, logarithmic atau lainnya sesuai dengan pola data yang diolah. [12] Garis trend pada dasarnya garis regresi dan variabel bebas (x) merupakan variabel waktu. Trend garis lurus (linier) adalah suatu trend yang diramalkan naik atau turun secara garis lurus.…”

Section: Metode Trend Momentunclassified

Implementation of Trend Moment Method in Forecasting Regional Income

Sutrisman¹,

Syafwan²,

Rohminatin³

2022

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In order to carry out the functions and authorities of local governments in the form of implementing fiscal authority, regions must be able to recognize potential and identify the resources they have. Forecasting is an art and science in predicting future events. The Regional Financial and Asset Management Agency (BPKAD) of Asahan Regency does not yet know the Regional Revenue in the upcoming period & is not yet available a system that can calculate Regional Revenue for the upcoming period. The main purpose of this research is to know the prediction of Regional Income in the following year. The system created helps in determining Regional Revenue in 2022, with data used from 2011 – 2021. The Trend Moment method is a method that uses certain statistical and mathematical calculation methods to find out the function of a straight line instead of a broken line formed by the company's historical data. In choosing the forecast method, accuracy is needed to minimize errors in forecasting (forecast error), the goal is that the forecast can approach reality. Based on the results of system testing, this Regional Revenue Forecasting predicts regional revenue in 2022, which is IDR 136,847,395,228.82 and the result of the percentage of errors (MAPE) Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 0.12%.

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“…dan 262.899 (trend analysis) dimana dalam penelitian ini metode trend analysis memiliki nilai error yang lebih kecil dengan nilai masing-masing secara berurutan MAD 14.716,12, MSE 327.282.084,17 dan MAPE 0,09[15].…”

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Prediksi Tingkat Produksi Buah Kelapa Sawit dengan Metode Single Moving Average

Irawan

Sumijan

Yuhandri

2021

jidt

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Palm oil is one of the largest agricultural products in Indonesia and has a high economic value and can improve the welfare of oil palm farmers. The amount of oil palm fruit production is not always stable or increasing, but increases up and down which is influenced by many factors. This study aims to estimate the average amount of oil palm fruit production every year and prepare anticipatory steps in the event of a decrease in oil palm fruit production. The image processed in this study was the production of palm fruit in a few years which was generated from the results of oil palm plantations. Furthermore, data is processed using the Single Moving Avarage method. This method is a method of forecasting or predictions using a number of actual data to generate predictive values in the future. The results of testing on the single moving average method can be seen forecasts of oil palm fruit production in 2021 using Moving Averge 3 of 200.749 tons with Mean Absolute Deviation 19.604, Mean Squared Error 456.963.281 and Mean Absolute Percent Error 10,0%. Moving Averge 4 was 206.771 tons with the Mean Absolute Deviation 27.333, Mean Squared Error 752.202.579 and Mean Absolute Percent Error 14,2%. Moving Averge 5 was 210.908 tons with Mean Absolute Deviation 26.890, Mean Squared Error 723.072.100 and Mean Absolute Percent Error 14.1%. The test results using the Single Moving Average method can be concluded that forecasting using Moving Average 3 can be used because the relative error level is smaller than Moving Average 4 and 5, with the value of the Mean Absolute Percent error of 10.0% and Mean Absolute Deviation 19.604.

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Peramalan Jumlah Populasi Sapi Potong di Kalimantan Selatan Menggunakan Metode Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing dan Trend Analysis

Cited by 4 publications

References 7 publications

Penerapan Metode Trend Moment Untuk Prediksi Permintaan Telur Ayam

Penerapan Metode Trend Moment Untuk Prediksi Permintaan Telur Ayam

Implementation of Trend Moment Method in Forecasting Regional Income

Prediksi Tingkat Produksi Buah Kelapa Sawit dengan Metode Single Moving Average

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