Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Pada Siluet Tour And Travel Kota Malang Menggunakan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing

Fitria, Vivi Aida; Hartono, Rudi

doi:10.32815/jitika.v11i1.35

Cited by 8 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…PT-X Jayapura membutuhkan peramalan penjualan yang lebih sesuai dan baik dengan memperhatikan kondisi-kondisi pada masa depan dan masa lampau. Peramalan yang tepat dan baik dapat membantu peluka usaha dalam menentukan kebijakan agar dapat mencapai target yang telah ditentukan seperti yang dilakukan oleh Fitria & Hartono (2017), tentang peramalan jumlah penumpang pada Siluet Tour and Travel Kota malang. peramalan pada penelitian ini menggunakan metode Triple Exponential Smoothing karena metode tersebut bisa digunakan pada data yang relative sedikit serta data yang mengandung pola musiman dan trend.…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

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Peramalan Penjualan Mobil Di Kota Jayapura Pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19 Menggunakan Triple Exponential Smoothing

Kuddi¹,

Seru

2023

saintifik

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Seiring dengan perkembangan Ilmu Pengetahuan dan Teknologi, industri otomotif juga mengalami perkembangan yang pesat sehingga meningkatkan persaingan diantara produsen otomotif untuk menciptakan produk yang sesuai dengan kebutuhan dan selera konsumen. Selain persaingan yang semakin ketat dealer juga dihadapkan dengan permasalahan covid-19 yang masuk ke indonesia sejak bulan maret 2020 yang berdampak bagi perekonomian masyarakat indonesia. Pandemi covid-19 secara langsung maupun tidak langsung menurunkan daya beli sebagian besar masyarakat. Data penjualan mobil pada PT-X Jayapura pada periode Maret 2020 hingga November 2021 memiliki pola yang mengandung faktor trend dan musiman sehingga pada penelitian ini akan diramalkan menggunakan metode triple exponential smoothing. Adapun dalam proses peramalan digunakan nilai . Untuk mengukur ketepatan akurasi peramalan pada penelitian ini digunakan Mean Squared Error (MSE) dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), dan diperoleh nilai MSE terkecil 6,51493 dengan nilai dan nilai MAPE terkecil 7,77 % dengan nilai . Peramalan penjualan mobil pada PT-X Jayapura pada bulan desember 2021 sebanyak 58 unit.

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Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

“…Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing digunakan pada data yang mengandung unsur trend dan musiman. Tahapan yang dilakukakan dalam peramalan menggunakan metode Triple Exponential Smoothing yaitu dengan menggunakan persamaan berikut (Fitria, & Hartono, 2017).…”

Section: Triple Exponential Smoothingunclassified

Peramalan Penjualan Mobil Di Kota Jayapura Pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19 Menggunakan Triple Exponential Smoothing

Kuddi¹,

Seru

2023

saintifik

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“…Ada beberapa peneliti sebelumnya yang sudah menggunakan metode triple exponential smoothing dalam meramalkan beberapa kasus (Andrian et al, 2020;Aprilianto & Fauzi, 2016;Astuti et al, 2017;Fitria & Hartono, 2017;Jayanti et al, 2015;Mardiansyah et al, 2016). Pada penelitian-penelitian tersebut didapatkan tingkat akurasi yang sangat tinggi yaitu dengan MAPE terkecil pada interval 0-20%.…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Peramalan Penjualan Jumlah Kripik Di Snack Center Menggunakan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing

Afiyah¹,

Aqromi²

2022

JKMA

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Snack Center is a gift center that offers various kinds of products to consumers who have a lot of untapped sales transaction data to support business and services. In addition, the goods arrangement system is carried out without standardization so that the goods cannot be run. In order to make the sales process more optimal, a chip sales forecasting system was made using the triple exponential smoothing method at the Batu City Snack Center by entering the data that has been obtained. The data is the result of sales in the previous period. In the triple exponential smoothing method, three smoothing calculations are carried out, then determine the alpha value to compare the smallest error percentage level. From the results of the data that has been tested with a sales forecasting system for chips with sales data from 2020-2021, the forecast value for recommendations for the next month, namely January 2022, is 30 packs of chips at alpha parameter 0.3 with least MAPE 9.598%.

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“…Based on the advantages that exist in the SARIMA method, in this study forecasting the number of passengers using the SARIMA method. Previous studies have used various methods to predict the number of passengers, such as ARIMA and ANFIS (Andalita & Irhamah, 2015), exponential smoothing (Oktaviarina, 2017), exponential smoothing event-based (Farida et al, 2021), Holt Winter's Exponential Smoothing (Baco et al, 2018;Sofiana et al, 2020), and Triple Exponential Smoothing (Darma et al, 2020;Fitria & Hartono, 2017). Research written by Nagara predicts the number of passengers using the SARIMA method and Winter's Exponential Smoothing (Negara, 2021).…”

Section: A Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Number of Ship Passengers with SARIMA Approach (A Case Study: Semayang Port, Balikpapan City)

Multiningsih

Siswanah

Saleh

2022

JTAM

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From year to year, the number of ship passengers at Semayang Port, Balikpapan city tends to fluctuate. It also doubles in certain months and repeats every year. Sea transportation companies need to make forecasts in order to implement policies related to predict the number and capacity of ships that need to be provided as well as the preparation of port facilities. The study aims at obtaining the best model, predicting and determining the accuracy of the forecasting results for the number of passengers arriving and departing at Semayang Port, Balikpapan city using SARIMA method. The SARIMA method is a time series data forecasting method that is able to identify seasonal patterns. The results showed that the best model for predicting the number of passengers departing at Semayang Port, Balikpapan city is the SARIMA (4,1,0)(0,1,2)12 model with a MAPE of 14.05%. It means that the SARIMA model used produces good forecasting. Meanwhile, the best model to predict the number of passengers coming to Semayang Port Balikpapan city is the SARIMA (0,1,1)(2,1,0)12 model with a MAPE value of 3.27% which exposes that the SARIMA model used succeed to provide accurate forecasting. The results of this forecast can be used as a reference for the government or port managers to anticipate a surge in passengers. The government or port management can prepare an adequate amount of transportation in certain months to avoid the accumulation of passengers and to make sea transportation more efficient.

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Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Pada Siluet Tour And Travel Kota Malang Menggunakan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing

Cited by 8 publications

References 0 publications

Peramalan Penjualan Mobil Di Kota Jayapura Pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19 Menggunakan Triple Exponential Smoothing

Peramalan Penjualan Mobil Di Kota Jayapura Pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19 Menggunakan Triple Exponential Smoothing

Peramalan Penjualan Jumlah Kripik Di Snack Center Menggunakan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing

Forecasting the Number of Ship Passengers with SARIMA Approach (A Case Study: Semayang Port, Balikpapan City)

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