Peramalan Ekspor Karet Provinsi Jambi dengan Model Seasonal ARIMA

Abstract

The industrial sector contributed the most to total non-oil and gas exports in Jambi Province. Rubber and its processed products are the main export commodities in the industrial sector. The export value of rubber and its products increased in 2017 but decreased again from 2018 to 2020. The decline in exports harmed the economy in Jambi Province. It is necessary to predict the export value of rubber and its products in the coming period. Forecasting is done on time series data using the ARIMA and SARIMA models. The best model for modeling the export value of rubber and its products in Jambi Province is SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,0,1)12. It is predicted that the export value of rubber and its processed products will decrease by around 4 percent in 2022. And decrease by around 5 percent in 2023. The results of this forecast can be used as an early warning in making policies related to exports in the coming period.

Penerapan Metode ARIMA Dalam Peramalan Harga Produksi Karet di Provinsi Riau

“…Selain itu, tahap ini dihitung berapa banyak nilai lag residual (q) nilai lag dependen (p) yang akan dipakai pada model, dilihat dari correlogram plot nilai ACF dan PACF. Menentukan model ARIMA (p,d,q), grafik autokorelasi parsial serta autokorelasi parsial dapat dilihat dari hasil data yang sudah di difference kan pada pola grafik yang muncul [12], [22]- [24], [26].…”

“…Setelah melaksanakan estimasi, selanjutnya perlu dilakukan uji kelayakan model atau memverifikasi model sementara agar bisa digunakan untuk peramalan .Tahapan dalam diagnostic checking secara berturut turut adalah melakukan pengujian signifikansi estimasi parameter, white noise, dan asumsi distribusi normal [4], [12], [22]- [26].…”

Implementation of the Floyd-Warshall Algorithm and Bellman-Ford Algorithm to Determine the Shortest Path in the Distribution of LPG Gas

“…Nowadays, some research to determining the shortest path using the Floyd-Warshall algorithm have been studied, such as determining the location of based tower stations, waste transportation routes, and distribution of goods [4][5][6][7]. In several other studies, the shortest path to determine cases such as distribution of goods, routes to gas stations and hospitals was studied using the bellman-ford algorithm [1,[8][9][10] and then, Other studies have also compared the two and implemented them to determine the optimal route, including in determining the shortest route to the museum in Jakarta [11] and to an android-based national university [12].…”