Peculiarities of Long-term Variability of Surface Water Inflow to Lake Baikal

Sinyukovich, V. N.; Chernyshov, M.S.

doi:10.3103/s1068373919100029

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Thereafter, the differences in the levels gradually decreased, and in the low-water period of 1976-1981, they were about 0.5 m, with a minimum of 0.14 m in August 1981. In the 1984-2015 period, the excess of the regulated levels over the conditionally natural levels largely varied in the range of 0.7-0.9 m, and in the summer period of low-water years 2016 and 2018, it dropped below 0.5 m. From the beginning of the 21st century until 2015, some stability of the differences was facilitated by the Angara River runoff [38] and "soft" low water conditions in Lake Baikal that have lasted since 1996.…”

Section: The Water Levels Of Lake Baikalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To reduce the negative impact of water level disturbances on the Lake Baikal ecosystem, the government of the Russian Federation established normative values of water level fluctuations in 2001 in the range of one meter [37], whereas under natural conditions, these fluctuations can reach 2.02 m [33,38]. However, since 2001, the level of Lake Baikal has repeatedly exceeded the established limits, probably due to both climate instability and insufficiently effective regulation.…”

Section: Object Of Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The reconstruction of the monthly water levels of Lake Baikal was based on the water budget components, which were expressed by their equivalent level height. A computational scheme [38,42] implemented month-by-month calculations of the level changes according to the following equation:…”

Section: Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In contrast to previous analyses [34,38,42], the reconstruction of levels was extended to 2020, and the conditionally natural levels since 1898 (instead of 1960) were analyzed using a combination of reconstructed data and the data observed before the regulation of the Angara River. Similarly, a set of natural and conditionally natural Angara River discharges for 1898-2020 was formed.…”

Section: Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Variation in the Water Level of Lake Baikal and Its Relationship with the Inflow and Outflow

Sinyukovich,

Georgiadi,

Groisman

et al. 2024

Water

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Lake Baikal is the largest freshwater lake in the world, accounting for about 20% of the world’s fresh surface water. The lake’s outflow to the ocean occurs only via the Angara River, which has several hydroelectric power plants (HPPs) along its watercourse. The first such HPP, Irkutsk HPP, was built in 1956 and is located 60 km from the Angara River’s source. After two years, the backwater from this HPP expanded to the lake shores and began raising the Baikal Lake level. Currently, there is a dynamic balance between the new lake level, the lake inflow from its tributaries, and the Angara River discharge through the Irkutsk HPP. However, both the Angara River discharge and the Baikal Lake level were distorted by the HPP construction. Thus, to understand the changes to the lake basin over the past century, we first needed to estimate naturalized lake levels that would be if no HPP was ever built. This was an important task that allowed (a) the actual impact of global changes on the regional hydrological processes to be estimated and (b) better management of the HPP itself to be provided through future changes. With these objectives in mind, we accumulated multi-year data on the observed levels of Lake Baikal, and components of its water budget (discharge of main tributaries and the Angara River, precipitation, and evaporation). Thereafter, we assessed the temporal patterns and degree of coupling of multi-year and intra-annual changes in the lake’s monthly, seasonal, and annual characteristics. The reconstruction of the average monthly levels of Lake Baikal and the Angara River water discharge after the construction of the Irkutsk HPP was based on the relationship of the fluctuations with the components of the Lake water budget before regulation. As a result, 123-year time series of “conditionally natural” levels of Lake Baikal and the Angara River discharge were reconstructed and statistically analyzed. Our results indicated high inertia in the fluctuations in the lake level. Additionally, we found a century-long tendency of increases in the lake level of about 15 cm per 100 years, and we quantified the low-frequency changes in Lake Baikal’s water levels, the discharge of the Angara River, and the main lake tributaries. An assessment of the impact of the Irkutsk HPP on the multi-year and intra-annual changes in the Lake Baikal water level and the Angara River discharge showed that the restrictions on the discharge through the HPP and the legislative limitations of the Lake Baikal level regime have considerably limited the fluctuations in the lake level. These fluctuations can lead to regulation violations and adverse regimes during low-water or high-water periods.

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Section: The Water Levels Of Lake Baikalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Object Of Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Variation in the Water Level of Lake Baikal and Its Relationship with the Inflow and Outflow

Sinyukovich,

Georgiadi,

Groisman

et al. 2024

Water

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“…The filling of the reservoir on the Angara River in 1961 caused a water level rise of approximately 80 cm (Fig. 2; Sinyukovich, 2005). Water level changes in subsequent years were due to variations in inflow (Afanasiev, 1976;Sinyukovich, 2005).…”

Section: 2water Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increase in the water level of Lake Baikal as a possible cause of changes in methane flux and concentrations in the water column

et al. 2023

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The construction of a dam for the Irkutsk hydroelectric power plant caused the water level in Lake Baikal to increase by 80 cm between 1958 and 1961. This led to a downward migration of the base of the gas hydrate stability zone (BGHSZ) in the sediments of the lake, which was followed by a long transition process to a new state of equilibrium. In the first stage of the transition, new gas hydrates formed at the BGHSZ, which was accompanied and followed by a decrease in pore pressure, a decrease in methane transfer from the BGHSZ to the lake floor (via fast transfer pathways, such as faults or mud volcanoes), a decrease in the intensity of methane release from the lake floor into the water column, and a decrease in the methane concentrations in the water. In the second stage, which covers the last 10-15 years, methane concentrations in the 2 water column have started to increase again, possibly in response to an uptick in methane flux from the lake floor. In this paper, we look at possible explanations.Mathematical modeling of the migration of the BGHSZ allowed us to estimate how long the transition process takes. The modeled transition times are different for different locations in the lake, depending mainly on the sedimentation rate and the gas hydrate content of the sediments.In the near future, Lake Baikal may reach a quasi-stationary state again similar to that before the construction of the dam. This stationary state likely involves much higher methane concentrations in the water column than what is observed today, as well as adverse effects on biota of pulsed expulsions of methane, sourced from the BGHSZ, into the water column by means of e.g. mudvolcano eruptions. Such effects may include events of mass deaths of the endemic deep-water fish, golomyanka, similar to what was reported to have occurred in the 19 th and first half of the 20 th century, prior to the construction of the dam. This study also reemphasizes how variations in the dynamics of a natural gas hydrate system may have a profound impact on the water bodies in which they occur and on the ecosystems within these water bodies. It also highlights which effects can be expected in other hydrate-bearing marine basins where climate-induced sea-level rise will impact the dynamics of the hydrate reservoirs.

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Impact of precipitation and evaporation change on flood runoff over Lake Baikal catchment

et al. 2022

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Peculiarities of Long-term Variability of Surface Water Inflow to Lake Baikal

Cited by 7 publications

References 7 publications

The Variation in the Water Level of Lake Baikal and Its Relationship with the Inflow and Outflow

The Variation in the Water Level of Lake Baikal and Its Relationship with the Inflow and Outflow

Increase in the water level of Lake Baikal as a possible cause of changes in methane flux and concentrations in the water column

Impact of precipitation and evaporation change on flood runoff over Lake Baikal catchment

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