Patterns of vegetation change in Yukon: recent findings and future research in dynamic subarctic ecosystems

Abstract

In Yukon, Canada, average air temperature has increased by 2 °C over the past 50 years and, by the end of the century up to 6.9 °C of further warming is predicted, along with increased climate variability. As a result of these and other changes, vegetation communities are predicted to shift in space and composition. Changes to the vegetation assemblages across multiple ecological units or bioclimate zones will impact carbon and nutrient cycling, animal habitat, biodiversity levels, and other ecosystem processes. Yukon has a wide variety of vegetation communities, and paleoecological evidence indicates that significant vegetation changes have occurred throughout the territory in the past. No documented synthesis of changes to vegetation assemblages exists, restricting predictions of their future likelihood, abundance, and influence. Here, we review the literature of documented examples of vegetation change throughout Yukon that have occurred ( i) in different vegetation communities due to the persistent press of climate change and ( ii) after natural disturbances. Future research into all vegetation responses under ongoing climate change is warranted. We identify critical research gaps for each vegetation community and disturbance type that should be addressed to produce a more encompassing understanding of the response of Yukon bioclimate zones and vegetation communities to future warming and disturbances.

Warming drives poleward range contractions of Beringian endemic plant species at high latitudes

“…By contrast, 23 of the species are expected to expand their ranges under an intermediate warming scenario. Our results thus suggest that there would be a fundamental shift in biodiversity structure across Alaska and the Yukon as the climate becomes warmer (also see Reid et al, 2022).…”

“…Prowse et al, 2009). Changes in the active layers alone due to permafrost thaw can lead to rapid changes in plant community compositions (see Reid et al, 2022). The effects of these dynamic disturbance processes are not captured by niche models, which assume climatic equilibrium.…”

Permafrost Carbon: Progress on Understanding Stocks and Fluxes Across Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems

“…Both greening (enhanced vegetation productivity; often associated with tree and shrub expansion) and browning (decreased productivity due to vegetation dieback or slower growth) are expected in permafrost regions under current warming trajectories, although the responses differ locally (Berner et al, 2020;C. X. Liu et al, 2021;Myers-Smith et al, 2020;Reid et al, 2022). Greening during the 1985-2016 has been more widespread, covering ca.…”

“…Vegetation changes have consequences for many additional ecosystem functions through effects on energy balance, hydrology, soil temperatures, C inputs to soil, and susceptibility to wildfire (Chapin et al., 1996; Mack et al., 2021; Sturm et al., 2005). Both greening (enhanced vegetation productivity; often associated with tree and shrub expansion) and browning (decreased productivity due to vegetation dieback or slower growth) are expected in permafrost regions under current warming trajectories, although the responses differ locally (Berner et al., 2020; C. X. Liu et al., 2021; Myers‐Smith et al., 2020; Reid et al., 2022). Greening during the 1985–2016 has been more widespread, covering ca.…”