Warming drives poleward range contractions of Beringian endemic plant species at high latitudes

Abstract

Aim Species are expected to disperse poleward in response to climate change. For species that are endemic to the high latitudes, this implies that many in the future would face a “no‐where‐to‐go” situation as they are currently occupying the northernmost portion of the continent. Further, because endemism may arise from a combination of physical barriers, climate and geological history, the persistence of many species may require spatial matching of multiple environmental factors within a limited dispersal space. Thus, it is not clear how endemic species might spatially adjust their distributions in response to climate change and whether there are future climate change refugia for these species. Location Northwest North America. Taxa Plants. Time Period Current and the future (2040). Methods We used ensemble bioclimatic models to evaluate drivers and directional patterns of future change in the distributions of 66 North American Beringian and amphi‐Beringian species currently occurring in Alaska and the Yukon. We explored the spatial pattern of species richness, losses and climate change refugia across the region. Results More than 80% of the species showed northward shifts in their latitudinal centroids under intermediate warming and are expected to shift their range northward by more than 140 km on average by 2040. Additionally, more than 60% were projected to experience range contractions and up to 20% of the species would have the potential to expand their ranges by more than 100%. Main Conclusions Suitable habitat for endemic species in northwest North America is expected to decline significantly, especially for species occupying the Arctic tundra. Although the models identified several potential refugia from future climate change, especially at high latitude and elevation, whether the species would be able to colonize new habitats on their own and/or capitalize sufficiently on in situ refugia remains a pertinent conservation question.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Biogeography and Ecological Structure of Zelkova schneideriana Hand.-Mazz. in China

“…Consequently, Zelkova schneideriana tracks cooler climates by advancing towards the northern edge and contracting in the south. Similar conclusions have been drawn in related studies [ 8 , 36 , 37 ]. It is important to note that species distribution models assume unobstructed dispersal pathways, which may not be the case due to landscape barriers and Zelkova schneideriana ’s limited dispersal capacity [ 8 ].…”

“…Similar conclusions have been drawn in related studies [8,36,37]. It is important to note that species distribution models assume unobstructed dispersal pathways, which may not be the case due to landscape barriers and Zelkova schneideriana's limited dispersal capacity [8].…”

“…Climate change is one of the main driving forces behind species distribution and biodiversity change [ 2 , 3 , 4 ], and it has profound impacts on the structure, function, and ecological traits of species [ 5 , 6 , 7 ]. Climate change will alter the suitable habitats for plants, with some plants showing spatial distribution patterns that involve migrating towards higher latitudes and elevations to track their ecological niches [ 8 , 9 , 10 ]. However, some studies have also found that certain plants migrate towards lower elevations and latitudes to adapt to changing conditions [ 11 ].…”

Multilocus Molecular Phylogeny of the Umbilicaria aprina Group (Umbilicariaceae, Lichenized Ascomycota) Supports Species Level and Neo-Endemic Status of Umbilicaria krascheninnikovii

“…[ 97 ]. However, for larger regions that include Kamchatka as a part (such as Beringia, the north of the Russian far east, and the North Pacific), a high level of endemism has been shown for different groups of organisms, (e.g., [ 94 , 98 , 99 , 100 ]). In case of lichens, a few species in addition to U. krascheninnikovii and U. pulvinaria have restricted distribution.…”