Patchwork Earth: Navigating pathways to just, thriving, and sustainable futures

Bennett, Elena M.; Biggs, Reinette; Peterson, Garry D.; Gordon, Line

doi:10.31235/osf.io/urvjp

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…However, large-scale and global scenarios in reality translate into local changes in human interactions with the environment (Moallemi et al, 2020b). Grassroots solutions led by local communities, cities, and businesses can also make synergies with the aspirations of the higher scales and significantly impact the unfolding of higher-level sustainability scenarios (Bandari et al, 2021; Bennett et al, 2021; Szetey et al, 2021a, 2021b). This brings new challenges for modelling the cross-scale dynamics of scenarios that can account for both higher spatial and temporal resolutions where policy-making (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diversifying models for analysing global change scenarios and sustainability pathways

2022

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Non-technical summary. Models are increasingly used to inform the transformation of human-Earth systems towards a sustainable future, aligned with the sustainable development goals (SDGs). We argue that a greater diversity of models ought to be used for sustainability analysis to better address complexity and uncertainty. We articulate the steps to model global change socioeconomic and climatic scenarios with new models. Through these steps, we generate new scenario projections using a human-Earth system dynamics model. Our modelling brings new insights about the sensitivity of sustainability trends to future uncertainty and their alignment with or divergence from previous model-based scenario projections. Technical summary. The future uncertainty and complexity of alternative socioeconomic and climatic scenarios challenge the model-based analysis of sustainable development. Obtaining robust insights requires a systematic processing of uncertainty and complexity not only in input assumptions, but also in the diversity of model structures that simulates the multisectoral dynamics of human and Earth system interactions. Here, we implement the global change scenarios, that is, the shared socioeconomic pathways and the representative concentration pathways, in a feedback-rich, integrated assessment model (IAM) of human-Earth system dynamics, called FeliX, to serve two aims: (1) to provide modellers with well-defined steps for the adoption of established scenarios in new IAMs and (2) to explore the impacts of model uncertainty and its structural complexity on the projection of these scenarios for sustainable development. Our modelling shows internally consistent scenario storylines across sectors, yet with quantitatively different realisations of these scenarios compared to other IAMs due to the new model's structural complexity. The results highlight the importance of enumerating global change scenarios and their uncertainty exploration with a diversity of models of different input assumptions and structures to capture a wider variety of future possibilities and sustainability indicators. Social media summary. New study highlights the importance of global change scenario analysis with new, SDG-focused IAMs.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diversifying models for analysing global change scenarios and sustainability pathways

2022

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“…This would require the strengthening of democratic institutions at all levels of governance. For example, the world’s diverse regions should be able to maintain autonomy and make their own choices about their futures (Bennett et al, 2021), but these choices will need to be reconciled at the global level through deliberative governance (Dryzek et al, 2019).…”

Section: Earth System Law: a Legal Imaginary For Charting A Habitable...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Taming Gaia 2.0: Earth system law in the ruptured Anthropocene

Kim

2021

The Anthropocene Review

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If the Anthropocene is a rupture in planetary history, what does it mean for international environmental law? When the Earth System crosses irreversible tipping points and begins a forceful, nonlinear transformation into a hostile state which I call the ruptured Anthropocene, the concept of protecting the global environment from humans would lose its meaning. Not only the dichotomy between humans and nature becomes irrelevant, but the environment itself will no longer exist as an object for protection. I argue that, for international environmental law to stay relevant in the ruptured Anthropocene, it needs to shift away from its traditional focus on restoring the planetary past, and instead play an active role in the making of planetary futures. Its new purpose will need to be active planetary stewardship, whereby humans add self-awareness for deliberate self-regulation of the Earth System. Such an attempt at ‘taming’ the so-called Gaia 2.0 will, however, create winners and losers, and the new form of law will have to address fundamental questions of justice on a planetary scale. Building on the concept of earth system law emerging in the earth system governance literature, I draw the contours of international environmental law 2.0 for the ruptured Anthropocene and discuss the challenges of instituting active planetary stewardship.

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“…Hence there is no clear path towards creating a reliable generalized knowledge of land use change (Meyfroidt et al, 2018;Turner et al, 2020). This knowledge gathered from evidence of landscape management may be synthesized into theory within the eld for supporting progress towards sustainable land use alternatives (Bennett et al, 2021;Meyfroidt et al, 2018;Turner et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What Did We Learn By Using Participatory Landscape Scenarios In Rio Doce Park, Brazil?

Ribeiro

Ferreira

Paula

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Context: This study uses landscape ecology tools and methods for developing participatory scenarios through spatially explicit modelling to forge innovative governance frameworks in the buffer areas of Rio Doce State Park in Brazil. We built on experiences from land management to derive contextual knowledge from evidence of landscape management that may be synthesized into theory within the field for supporting progress towards sustainable land use alternatives.Objective: We examined how evidence from landscape management in Rio Doce Park and its buffer areas can be synthesized to foster landscape governance . For that we used 1) participatory scenarios for envisioning and exploring possible and desirable futures, as seen by the local communities; 2) multicriteria analysis for modeling and mapping areas holding biophysical potential to carry out the activities seen as desirable by local communities; and 3) explored how those desirable futures can be implemented by framing appropriate multiscale governance.Results: Our results show that landscape ecology tools and methods were able to foster stakeholder engagement and, in an innovative way, brought the views of local community stakeholders into landscape policy making. Although there is institutional capacity for moving towards sustainability there is the need to go beyond sectoral approaches to land management and integrate broader societal demands into the conservation agenda. The institutional setting is confusing and readjusting it to implement desirable futures sought by communities depends on an emerging set of landscape stewards. Conclusion: The experience emerging from this work and the participation in governance forums for over 6 years (2016-2021), highlights that while landscape ecology helps at envisioning desirable scenarios, and that landscape approaches are helpful for discussing and reconciling different interests, there is not yet a landscape institutional leader pushing by the enforcement of a whole landscape approach reconciling sectoral integration (agriculture, forestry, tourism & conservation) as well as the cross scale governance needed for implementing desirable landscape scenarios in the buffer area of PERD. This adds to the scope for more responsive governance and the changing role of university-based research for working towards sustainable landscape outcomes. This research provides the basis for exciting future innovation in landscape ecology practices and management.Landscape ecology is a leading field, both in research and practice, for investigating the relationships between social and natural processes mediated by land use changes. Despite a rich variety of empirical case studies, research and practice in landscape ecology has been falling behind in interpreting, modelling, predicting and developing knowledge for helping to influence the behaviour of social agents, including governmental and non governmental institutions, in moving towards more sustainable land uses across tropical landscapes. This study uses landscape ecology tools and methods for developing participatory scenarios through spatially explicit modelling to forge innovative governance frameworks in the buffer areas of Rio Doce State Park in Brazil. We built on experiences from land management to derive contextual knowledge from evidence of landscape management that may be synthesized into theory within the field for supporting progress towards sustainable land use alternatives. Our results show that landscape ecology tools and methods were able to foster stakeholder engagement and, in an innovative way, brought the views of local community stakeholders into landscape policy making. Although there is institutional capacity for moving towards sustainability there is the need to go beyond sectoral approaches to land management integrating broader societal demands into the conservation agenda by using landscape approaches. This adds to the scope for more responsive governance and the changing role of university-based research for working towards sustainable landscape outcomes. This research provides the basis for exciting future innovation in landscape ecology practices and management.

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Patchwork Earth: Navigating pathways to just, thriving, and sustainable futures

Cited by 6 publications

References 12 publications

Diversifying models for analysing global change scenarios and sustainability pathways

Diversifying models for analysing global change scenarios and sustainability pathways

Taming Gaia 2.0: Earth system law in the ruptured Anthropocene

What Did We Learn By Using Participatory Landscape Scenarios In Rio Doce Park, Brazil?

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