Partial Fertility Recuperation in Spain Two Years After the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Following the onset COVID-19 pandemic’s, a host of countries saw drastic fertility declines. Yet so far it remains unclear whether affected populations subsequently have recuperated the fertility declines, and if so, if the recuperation is equally distributed. We use vital statistics on Spain, the European country experiencing the most severe fertility decline of the pandemic, to examine these questions. By December 2021, Spain had only seen a partial recuperation of the fertility with large heterogeneity. Mothers at the beginning and the end of the reproductive age and those transitioning to first child have not yet recuperated, whereas mother in the middle of the fertility window and higher order births have fully recuperated. The findings suggest large consequences for population structure and ultimate childlessness in Spain.

Fertility decline in the later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of policy interventions, vaccination programmes, and economic uncertainty

“…The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020-2022 contributed to distinct swings in birth rates. The initial shock was linked in most countries to a short-term decrease in the number of births around December 2020 to January 2021, followed by an equally brief recovery around March 2021 and a more differentiated development in the subsequent months that varied across countries (e.g., Bailey et al, 2023;Fallesen & Cozzani, 2023;Gietel-Basten & Chen, 2023;Gray et al, 2022;Kearney & Levine, 2023;Lappegård et al, 2023;Nisén et al, 2022;OECD, 2021aOECD, , 2021bPlach et al, 2023;Sobotka et al, 2023). Some countries, including the Nordic countries, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Germany, Israel and the United States, even experienced a small "baby bump" during the second pandemic year, 2021.…”

Changes in Conception Rates, Not in Pregnancy-Related Behavior, Likely Caused Decline in Pre-Term Births in Developed Countries During the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic

“…In recent work, we have shown that a similar trend in fertility can be observed in Spain for the same period. 4,7 In this work, we also show a similar decline in preterm births rates as observed in Italy by Rusconi et al 4 Further, we demonstrate how this decline in preterm births can occur mechanically in the case of a rapid decline in conceptions right after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which in turn leads to the observed lower birth rates beginning by September (fewer pre-term births) and carrying out all through to January 2021 (fewer at term births).…”

Changes in conception rates, not in pregnancy‐related behaviour, likely caused decline in preterm births during the first year of the COVID‐19 pandemic

“…In recent work, we have shown that a similar trend in fertility can be observed in Spain for the same period. 4,7 In this work, we also show a similar decline in Spanish preterm births rates as observed in Italy by Rusconi et al 4 Further, we demonstrate how this decline in preterm births can occur mechanically in the case of a rapid decline in conceptions right after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which in turn leads to the observed lower birth rates beginning by September (fewer preterm births) and carrying out all through to January 2021 (fewer term births).…”