Pandemics: Risks, Impacts, and Mitigation

Madhav, Nita; Oppenheim, Ben; Gallivan, Mark; Mulembakani, Prime; Rubin, Edward M.; Wolfe, Nathan

doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0527-1_ch17

Cited by 487 publications

(428 citation statements)

References 123 publications

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“…5 We found other integrative estimates of the magnitude of pandemic risk in two partially proprietary sources. 17,18 Several studies have examined specific dimensions of the economic impacts of annual influenza, such as direct costs, e.g. medical and hospitalizations costs, and indirect costs, e.g.…”

Section: Economic Losses From Influenzamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A modelling exercise for the insurance industry concluded that the annual risk of an influenza outbreak on the scale of the 1918 pandemic lies between 0.5% and 1.0%. 18 For more severe pandemics, we fitted a parametrized exceedance probability function to modelled data that had been previously reported. 18,35…”

Section: Exceedance Probability Functionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…18 For more severe pandemics, we fitted a parametrized exceedance probability function to modelled data that had been previously reported. 18,35…”

Section: Exceedance Probability Functionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

Fan

Jamison

Summers

2018

Bull. World Health Organ.

268

157

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There is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics. The arguments in favour of such investment have been largely based on estimates of the losses in national incomes that might occur as the result of a major epidemic or pandemic. Recently, we extended the estimate to include the valuation of the lives lost as a result of pandemic-related increases in mortality. This produced markedly higher estimates of the full value of loss that might occur as the result of a future pandemic. We parametrized an exceedance probability function for a global influenza pandemic and estimated that the expected number of influenza-pandemic-related deaths is about 720 000 per year. We calculated that the expected annual losses from pandemic risk to be about 500 billion United States dollars – or 0.6% of global income – per year. This estimate falls within – but towards the lower end of – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s estimates of the value of the losses from global warming, which range from 0.2% to 2% of global income. The estimated percentage of annual national income represented by the expected value of losses varied by country income grouping: from a little over 0.3% in high-income countries to 1.6% in lower-middle-income countries. Most of the losses from influenza pandemics come from rare, severe events.

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Section: Economic Losses From Influenzamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Exceedance Probability Functionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

Fan

Jamison

Summers

2018

Bull. World Health Organ.

268

157

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“…Editors of DCP3’s first eight volumes and authors of specific chapters in volume 9 (on rehabilitation, 38 on pathology, 39 on palliative care, 40 and pandemic preparedness 41 ) constructed the 21 essential packages listed in panel 3. The authors of this Review then consolidated those policies and formats into a common level of aggregation and a common structure (eg, screening was not considered an intervention by itself but only in conjunction with the indicated response).…”

Section: The Dcp3 Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Universal health coverage and intersectoral action for health: key messages from Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition

et al. 2018

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The World Bank is publishing nine volumes of Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition (DCP3) between 2015 and 2018. Volume 9, Improving Health and Reducing Poverty, summarises the main messages from all the volumes and contains cross-cutting analyses. This Review draws on all nine volumes to convey conclusions. The analysis in DCP3 is built around 21 essential packages that were developed in the nine volumes. Each essential package addresses the concerns of a major professional community (eg, child health or surgery) and contains a mix of intersectoral policies and health-sector interventions. 71 intersectoral prevention policies were identified in total, 29 of which are priorities for early introduction. Interventions within the health sector were grouped onto five platforms (population based, community level, health centre, first-level hospital, and referral hospital). DCP3 defines a model concept of essential universal health coverage (EUHC) with 218 interventions that provides a starting point for country-specific analysis of priorities. Assuming steady-state implementation by 2030, EUHC in lower-middle-income countries would reduce premature deaths by an estimated 4·2 million per year. Estimated total costs prove substantial: about 9·1% of (current) gross national income (GNI) in low-income countries and 5·2% of GNI in lower-middle-income countries. Financing provision of continuing intervention against chronic conditions accounts for about half of estimated incremental costs. For lower-middle-income countries, the mortality reduction from implementing the EUHC can only reach about half the mortality reduction in non-communicable diseases called for by the Sustainable Development Goals. Full achievement will require increased investment or sustained intersectoral action, and actions by finance ministries to tax smoking and polluting emissions and to reduce or eliminate (often large) subsidies on fossil fuels appear of central importance. DCP3 is intended to be a model starting point for analyses at the country level, but country-specific cost structures, epidemiological needs, and national priorities will generally lead to definitions of EUHC that differ from country to country and from the model in this Review. DCP3 is particularly relevant as achievement of EUHC relies increasingly on greater domestic finance, with global developmental assistance in health focusing more on global public goods. In addition to assessing effects on mortality, DCP3 looked at outcomes of EUHC not encompassed by the disability-adjusted life-year metric and related cost-effectiveness analyses. The other objectives included financial protection (potentially better provided upstream by keeping people out of the hospital rather than downstream by paying their hospital bills for them), stillbirths averted, palliative care, contraception, and child physical and intellectual growth. The first 1000 days after conception are highly important for child development, but the next 7000 days are likewise important and often neglected.

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“…Research on the 1918 influenza H1N1 pandemic and recent epidemics and pandemics has shown a range of estimated losses (panel). [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] A limitation in assessing the economic costs of outbreaks is that they only capture the impact on income. Fan and colleagues 8 recently addressed this limitation by estimating the "inclusive" cost of pandemics: the sum of the cost in lost income and a dollar valuation of the cost of early death.…”

Section: Financing Of International Collective Action For Epidemic Anmentioning

confidence: 99%

Financing of international collective action for epidemic and pandemic preparedness

Yamey

Schäferhoff²,

Aars

et al. 2017

The Lancet Global Health

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Pandemics: Risks, Impacts, and Mitigation

Abstract: for their valuable technical and editorial contributions to the chapter.

Cited by 487 publications

References 123 publications

Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

Universal health coverage and intersectoral action for health: key messages from Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition

Financing of international collective action for epidemic and pandemic preparedness

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