Financing of international collective action for epidemic and pandemic preparedness

Yamey, Gavin; Schäferhoff, Marco; Aars, Ole Kristian; Bloom, Barry R.; Carroll, Dennis; Chawla, Mukesh; Dzau, Victor J.; Echalar, Ricardo; Gill, Indermit S.; Godal, Tore; Gupta, Sanjeev; Jamison, Dean T.; Kelley, Patrick W.; Kristensen, F.; Mundaca-Shah, Ceci; Oppenheim, Ben; Pavlin, Julie A.; Salvado, Rodrigo; Sands, Peter; Schmunis, Rocio; Soucat, Agnès; Summers, Lawrence H.; Turabi, Anas El; Waldman, Ron; Whiting, Ed

doi:10.1016/s2214-109x(17)30203-6

Cited by 49 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Public gatherings/events such as religious and ceremonial gatherings need to be minimised, and restrictions on movement for an extended period. There has been no lack of knowledge of the expected economic and health costs of infectious disease outbreaks [24,25], but the country has not been adequately investing in preventive measures to mitigate the risks of large epidemic outbreaks. As the spread of the virus is likely to continue disrupting economic activities in Nigeria, the intervention measures implemented such as restrictions on movements and lockdown of cities will impose a significant economic burden and diminishing the wellbeing of people.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria

Adegboye

Adekunle

Gayawan

2020

IJERPH

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On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of a novel coronavirus disease in China that was later named COVID-19. On 11 March 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. The first instance of the virus in Nigeria was documented on 27 February 2020. This study provides a preliminary epidemiological analysis of the first 45 days of COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria. We estimated the early transmissibility via time-varying reproduction number based on the Bayesian method that incorporates uncertainty in the distribution of serial interval (time interval between symptoms onset in an infected individual and the infector), and adjusted for disease importation. By 11 April 2020, 318 confirmed cases and 10 deaths from COVID-19 have occurred in Nigeria. At day 45, the exponential growth rate was 0.07 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.05-0.10) with a doubling time of 9.84 days (95% CI: 7.28-15.18). Separately for imported cases (travel-related) and local cases, the doubling time was 12.88 days and 2.86 days, respectively. Furthermore, we estimated the reproduction number for each day of the outbreak using a three-weekly window while adjusting for imported cases. The estimated reproduction number was 4.98 (95% CrI: 2.65-8.41) at day 22 (19 March 2020), peaking at 5.61 (95% credible interval (CrI): 3.83-7.88) at day 25 (22 March 2020). The median reproduction number over the study period was 2.71 and the latest value on 11 April 2020, was 1.42 (95% CrI: 1.26-1.58). These 45-day estimates suggested that cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria have been remarkably lower than expected and the preparedness to detect needs to be shifted to stop local transmission.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria

Adegboye

Adekunle

Gayawan

2020

IJERPH

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“…Some have therefore argued that, for the global good, resources for development assistance should be used to provide incentives for national investments and international collaborations in such preparedness. 3…”

Section: Policy Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Few doubt that major epidemics and pandemics will strike again and few would argue that the world is adequately prepared. Since the 2013-2016 Ebola virus disease outbreak in western Africa, the United States National Academy of Medicine 1 and several other groups [2][3][4] have pointed to gaps, and the need for greater investment, in preparation against epidemics and pandemics, of Ebola virus disease and other infectious diseases. Attempts to justify greater investment have mostly been based on estimates of the industrial and macroeconomic losses attributable to influenza pandemics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

Fan

Jamison

Summers

2018

Bull. World Health Organ.

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268

157

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There is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics. The arguments in favour of such investment have been largely based on estimates of the losses in national incomes that might occur as the result of a major epidemic or pandemic. Recently, we extended the estimate to include the valuation of the lives lost as a result of pandemic-related increases in mortality. This produced markedly higher estimates of the full value of loss that might occur as the result of a future pandemic. We parametrized an exceedance probability function for a global influenza pandemic and estimated that the expected number of influenza-pandemic-related deaths is about 720 000 per year. We calculated that the expected annual losses from pandemic risk to be about 500 billion United States dollars – or 0.6% of global income – per year. This estimate falls within – but towards the lower end of – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s estimates of the value of the losses from global warming, which range from 0.2% to 2% of global income. The estimated percentage of annual national income represented by the expected value of losses varied by country income grouping: from a little over 0.3% in high-income countries to 1.6% in lower-middle-income countries. Most of the losses from influenza pandemics come from rare, severe events.

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“…Adequate financing might not be available from one country alone, and collective contribution would be necessary. 12 No single entity can fully be responsible for the implementation of these measures, and collaboration and coordination are key to success.…”

Section: Implications Of Converging Conflicts Emergencies and Mass mentioning

confidence: 99%