Palaeoclimatic implications from micro-facies data of a 5900 varve time series from the Piànico interglacial sediment record, southern Alps

Brauer, Achim; Mangili, Clara; Moscariello, Andrea; Witt, Annette

doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2007.10.003

Cited by 49 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…In addition to these cycles, our record provides evidence for a centennial-scale cycle at ∼512 yr, which has been rarely detected in varve time series (Prasad et al, 2004;Brauer et al, 2008). To date, its origin remains unclear; it is considered to be related to either solar forcing (Stuiver et al, 1995;Sarnthein et al, 2003) or changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (Stuiver and Braziunas, 1993;Chapman and Shackleton, 2000;Damon and Peristykh, 2000;Risebrobakken et al, 2003).…”

Section: Solar-cyclicity-like Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 74%

“…The most prominent, at 90 yr, can be attributed to the 88-yr Gleissberg solar cycle (e.g. Gleissberg, 1944;Stuiver and Braziunas, 1993;Hoyt and Schatten, 1997) that has previously been recorded in several glacial (Anderson and Koopmans, 1963;Vos et al, 1997;Prasad et al, 2004) and interglacial varve time series (Anderson and Koopmans, 1963;Vos et al, 1997;Dean et al, 2002;Brauer et al, 2008). The 25-and 10.5-yr peaks from Dethlingen may correlate to the 22-yr Hale and 11-yr Schwabe solar cycles, respectively (e.g.…”

Section: Solar-cyclicity-like Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 84%

“…Hoyt and Schatten, 1997) that were previously recorded in varve time series (e.g. Anderson, 1992;Vos et al, 1997;O'Sullivan et al, 2002;Prasad et al, 2004;Brauer et al, 2008).…”

Section: Solar-cyclicity-like Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To date, although several well-preserved Holsteinian varved archives are known (e.g. Turner, 1970;Müller, 1974;Krupiński, 1995;Nitychoruk et al, 2005), the potential of using varves to better understand the decadal to sub-decadal-scale climate variability during MIS 11 has been poorly explored (Mangili et al, 2005(Mangili et al, , 2007Brauer et al, 2008).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Sub-decadal- to decadal-scale climate cyclicity during the Holsteinian interglacial (MIS 11) evidenced in annually laminated sediments

et al. 2011

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Abstract.To unravel the short-term climate variability during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, which represents a close analogue to the Holocene with regard to orbital boundary conditions, we performed microfacies and time series analyses on a ∼3200-yr-long record of annually laminated Holsteinian lake sediments from Dethlingen, northern Germany. These biogenic varves comprise two sub-layers: a light sub-layer, which is controlled by spring/summer diatom blooms, and a dark sub-layer consisting mainly of amorphous organic matter and fragmented diatom frustules deposited during autumn/winter. Time series analyses were performed on the thickness of the light and dark sub-layers. Signals exceeding the 95 % and 99 % confidence levels occur at periods that are near-identical to those known from modern instrumental data and Holocene palaeoclimatic records. Spectral peaks at periods of 90, 25, and 10.5 yr are likely associated with the 88-, 22-and 11-yr solar cycles, respectively. This variability is mainly expressed in the light sublayer spectra, suggesting solar influence on the palaeoproductivity of the lake. Significant signals at periods between 3 and 5 yr and at ∼6 yr are strongest expressed in the dark sub-layer spectra and may reflect an influence of the El Niño-Correspondence to: A. Koutsodendris (koutsodendris@em.uni-frankfurt.de) Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during autumn/winter. Our results suggest that solar forcing and ENSO/NAO-like variability influenced central European climate during MIS 11 similarly to the present interglacial, thus demonstrating the comparability of the two interglacial periods at sub-decadal to decadal timescales.

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Section: Solar-cyclicity-like Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 74%

Section: Solar-cyclicity-like Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 84%

“…Hoyt and Schatten, 1997) that were previously recorded in varve time series (e.g. Anderson, 1992;Vos et al, 1997;O'Sullivan et al, 2002;Prasad et al, 2004;Brauer et al, 2008).…”

Section: Solar-cyclicity-like Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Sub-decadal- to decadal-scale climate cyclicity during the Holsteinian interglacial (MIS 11) evidenced in annually laminated sediments

et al. 2011

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“…2b): a lightly coloured and ∼ 0.5 mm thick spring/summer layer formed by up to 96 % of endogenic calcite, and a dark and thin winter layer constituted of organic remains, diatom frustules, and occasional detrital grains (Moscariello et al, 2000;Mangili et al, 2005). Using wavelet analysis, Brauer et al (2008) found that the varve thickness is partially modulated by solar activity (88 and 208-year cycles), and probably also by the thermohaline ocean circulation (512-year cycle). In the BVC stratigraphic interval, the upper 60 % (9271 out of 15 500 varves) were examined here in detail using the same methodology and location as described in Mangili et al (2005), but extending the vertical profile from 896 varves (Mangili et al, 2005) to 9271 varves (here).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis and modelling of a 9.3 kyr palaeoflood record: correlations, clustering, and cycles

Witt

Malamud

Mangili

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In this paper, we present a unique 9.5 m palaeolacustrine record of 771 palaeofloods which occurred over a period of 9.3 kyr in the Piànico-Sèllere Basin (southern Alps) during an interglacial period in the Pleistocene (sometime from 780 to 393 ka) and analyse its correlation, clustering, and cyclicity properties. We first examine correlations, by applying power-spectral analysis and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to a time series of the number of floods per decade, and find weak long-range persistence: a power-spectral exponent β PS ≈ 0.39 and an equivalent power-spectral exponent from DFA, β DFA ≈ 0.25. We then examine clustering using the one-point probability distribution of the inter-flood intervals and find that the palaeofloods cluster in time as they are Weibull distributed with a shape parameter k W = 0.78. We then examine cyclicity in the time series of number of palaeofloods per year, and find a period of about 2030 years. Using these characterizations of the correlation, clustering, and cyclicity in the original palaeoflood time series, we create a model consisting of the superposition of a fractional Gaussian noise (FGN) with a 2030-year periodic component and then peaks over threshold (POT) applied. We use this POT FGN+Period model to create 2 600 000 synthetic realizations of the same length as our original palaeoflood time series, but with varying intensity of periodicity and persistence, and find optimized model parameters that are congruent with our original palaeoflood series. We create long realizations of our optimized palaeoflood model, and find a high temporal variability of the flood frequency, which can take values of between 0 and > 30 floods century −1 . Finally, we show the practical utility of our optimized model realizations to calculate the uncertainty of the forecasted number of floods per century with the number of floods in the preceding century. A key finding of our paper is that neither fractional noise behaviour nor cyclicity is sufficient to model frequency fluctuations of our large and continuous palaeoflood record, but rather a model based on both fractional noise superimposed with a long-range periodicity is necessary.

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Fluvial palaeohydrology in the 21st century and beyond

Baker

Benito

Brown

et al. 2021

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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Professor Kenneth J. Gregory was a major contributor to fluvial palaeohydrological research. Beginning in the early 1980s, under his influence, rapid international growth of the discipline was accompanied by major advances in research methods and techniques. Current research emphases include applications of quantitative modelling and meta-analysis; the correlation of fluvial events to other records, notably palaeolacustine records; and methods for application to diverse issues of river engineering and management. The international expansion and detailed analyses of fluvial palaeohydrology are exemplified by recent studies done in Fennoscandia, the Mediterranean region, India, Israel, Australia, Pacific humid island arcs, and South America. Future developments will involve expanded work with

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Palaeoclimatic implications from micro-facies data of a 5900 varve time series from the Piànico interglacial sediment record, southern Alps

Cited by 49 publications

References 31 publications

Sub-decadal- to decadal-scale climate cyclicity during the Holsteinian interglacial (MIS 11) evidenced in annually laminated sediments

Sub-decadal- to decadal-scale climate cyclicity during the Holsteinian interglacial (MIS 11) evidenced in annually laminated sediments

Analysis and modelling of a 9.3 kyr palaeoflood record: correlations, clustering, and cycles

Fluvial palaeohydrology in the 21st century and beyond

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Palaeoclimatic implications from micro-facies data of a 5900 varve time series from the Piànico interglacial sediment record, southern Alps

Cited by 49 publications

References 31 publications

Sub-decadal- to decadal-scale climate cyclicity during the Holsteinian interglacial (MIS 11) evidenced in annually laminated sediments

Sub-decadal- to decadal-scale climate cyclicity during the Holsteinian interglacial (MIS 11) evidenced in annually laminated sediments

Analysis and modelling of a 9.3 kyr palaeoflood record: correlations, clustering, and cycles

Fluvial palaeohydrology in the 21st century and beyond

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Product

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Analysis and modelling of a 9.3 kyr palaeoflood record: correlations, clustering, and cycles