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A holistic perspective on changing rainfall-driven flood risk is provided for the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Economic losses from floods have greatly increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. It has not been possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change over the past several decades. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, based on climate models, should contribute to increases in precipitation-generated local flooding (e.g. flash flooding and urban flooding). This article assesses the literature included in the IPCC SREX report and new literature published since, and includes an assessment of changes in flood risk in seven of the regions considered in the recent IPCC SREX report-Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Europe, North America, Oceania and Polar regions. Also considering newer publications, this article is consistent with the recent IPCC SREX assessment finding that the impacts of climate change on flood characteristics are highly sensitive to the detailed nature of Le risque d'inondation et les perspectives de changement climatique mondial et régionalRésumé Cet article trace une perspective globale de l'évolution des risques d'inondation d'origine pluviale pour la fin du 20ème et le début du 21ème siècle. Les pertes économiques dues aux inondations ont fortement augmenté, principalement en raison de l'exposition croissante des actifs à risque. Il n'a pas été possible d'attribuer les tendances de débits de pointe au changement climatique d'origine anthropique au cours des dernières décennies. Les augmentations prévues de la fréquence et de l'intensité des précipitations extrêmes, basées sur des modèles climatiques, devraient contribuer à une augmentation des inondations locales (par exemple, des crues éclairs et des inondations en milieu urbain) provoquées par les pluies. Nous avons évalué la littérature incluse dans le rapport SREX du GIEC et celle qui a été publiée depuis, afin d'estimer l'évolution des risques d'inondation dans les sept régions considérées dans le rapport récent du SREX du GIEC, à savoir l'Afrique, l'Asie, l'Amérique centrale et du Sud, l'Europe, l'Amérique du Nord, l'Océanie et les régions polaires. Tenant compte des publications les plus récentes, le présent article rejoint la récente évaluation SREX du GIEC selon laquelle les impacts du changement climatique sur les caractéristiques des crues sont très sensibles aux détails de ces changements, et qu'à l'heure actuelle nous ne pouvons avoir qu'une confiance limitée dans les projections numériques de l'évolution de l'amplitude ou de la fréquence des inondations résultant du changement climatique.

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The effects of the topographic data source and resolution on the hydraulic modelling of floods were analysed. Seven digital terrain models (DTMs) were generated from three different altimetric sources: a global positioning system (GPS) survey and bathymetry; highresolution laser altimetry data LiDAR (light detection and ranging); and vectorial cartography (1:5000). Hydraulic results were obtained, using the HEC-RAS one-dimensional model, for all seven DTMs. The importance of the DTM's accuracy on the hydraulic modelling results was analysed within three different hydraulic contexts: (1) the discharge and water surface elevation results from the hydraulic model; (2)

Historical hydrology can be defined as a research field occupying the interface between hydrology and history, with the objectives: to reconstruct temporal and spatial patterns of river flow and, in particular, extreme events (floods, ice phenomena, hydrological droughts) mainly for the period prior to the creation of national hydrological networks; and to investigate the vulnerability of past societies and economies to extreme hydrological events. It is a significant tool for the study of flood risk. Basic sources of documentary data on floods and methods of data collection and analysis are discussed. Research progress achieved in Europe in reconstructing past runoff conditions, hydrological and hydraulic analyses of historical floods, their meteorological causes, impacts and relation to climate change, as well as use of combined series of palaeofloods, instrumental and historical floods for reconstructing long-term flood records, is reviewed. Finally, the future research needs of historical hydrology are discussed.Key words documentary data; Europe; flood risk; historical floods; historical hydrology L'hydrologie historique pour une meilleure connaissance du risque inondation en Europe Résumé L'hydrologie historique peut être définie comme un champ de recherche positionné à la rencontre de l'hydrologie et de l'histoire. Ses objectifs visent, d'une part, la reconstitution dans le temps et l'espace de séries de crues fluviales, avec en particulier le repérage d'événements extrêmes (inondations, débâcles glaciaires, sécheresses et étiages sévères) et ce principalement pour la période antérieure à la mise en place des réseaux d'observations hydrologiques nationaux; sans oublier, d'autre part, la connaissance de la vulnérabilité des sociétés et économies anciennes face à ces événements hydrologiques extrêmes. L'hydrologie historique constitue par là même un outil essentiel pour la connaissance du risque inondation. Les principales sources de données documentaires sur les inondations et les méthodes de collecte et d'analyse des données sont décrites ici. Nous exposerons également les principales avancées de la recherche européenne en matière de reconstitution des conditions d'écoulement fluviales passées, d'analyse hydrologique et hydraulique des crues historiques avec leur contexte météorologique, leurs impacts et leurs relations avec le changement climatique. Nous présenterons enfin des démarches permettant la constitution de longues séries de crues à partir d'analyses associant les données sur les paléocrues, celles issues des recherches sur la période historique, et les données instrumentales pour la période contemporaine. En conclusion nous discuterons des besoins nécessaires au développement de la recherche en hydrologie historique.

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Palaeoflood chronologies from seven Spanish river basins and floodplain aggradation chronologies from thirteen rivers are analysed. These fluvial records were divided in to two sub-sets, namely Atlantic (10 ka record) and Mediterranean (3 ka record) river basins, which represent distinct modern hydroclimatic conditions. In Atlantic basins floods result from intense, widespread rainfalls associated with Atlantic frontal systems transported by westerly airflow. Mediterranean river flooding is related to heavy rainfall induced by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) during autumn months. Evidence from radiocarbon dates in slackwater flood deposits shows six periods of flood clusters at 10,750-10,240; 9550-9130; 4820-4440; 2865-2350; 960-790; and 520-290 cal BP. Despite the different flood-producing weather conditions in Atlantic and Mediterranean rivers, the radiocarbon sample clusters overlap and indicate changes in largescale atmospheric circulation and climatic conditions in the Iberian Peninsula. Comparison with proxy records of mean temperature for the Northern Hemisphere demonstrates a relationship between the period of slackwater flood deposition and cold climatic phases (e.g. the 2650 yr BP climatic event or AD 1590-1650 period of the Little Ice Age). Radiocarbon dates from aggraded floodplain sediments were clustered at 2710-2320, 2000-1830, and 910-500 cal BP. The first cluster period is in phase with the timing of slackwater deposition, whereas the third (910-500 cal BP) occurs in between two periods of increased flood frequency as indicated by the palaeoflood and documentary flood records. It is argued that the 910-500 cal BP floodplain aggradation period reflects the first post-Roman evidence of environmental change related to generalised land-use changes at the catchment scale, which produced high sediment load transported to overbank areas during high flows.

Mediterranean fluvial hydrology is characterised by decadal-to-multi-centennial length wet and dry episodes with abrupt transitions related to changes in atmospheric circulation. Since the mid-1990s site-based flood chronologies from slackwater deposits in bedrock rivers and regionally aggregated flood histories from alluvial deposits have developed increasingly higher resolution chronological frameworks, although regional coverage is still uneven. This paper analyses the spatial and temporal distribution of extreme Holocene hydrological events recorded in fluvial stratigraphy in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal), southern France, southern Italy, Northern Africa (Morocco and Tunisia) and eastern Mediterranean (Greece, Crete, Turkey, Cyprus and Israel). This study constitutes the most comprehensive investigation of Holocene river flooding ever undertaken in the Mediterranean and is based on the analysis of 515 14 C and 53 OSL dates. It reveals that flood periods in different regions cluster into distinct time intervals, although region-wide flooding episodes can be identified at