Pakistan

Young, William J.; Anwar, Arif A.; Bhatti, Tousif; Borgomeo, Edoardo; Davies, Stephen; Garthwaite, William R.; Gilmont, E. Michael; Leb, Christina; Lytton, Lucy; Makin, Ian W.; Saeed, Basharat Ahmed

doi:10.1596/31160

Cited by 75 publications

(43 citation statements)

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“…Paragraph 2 considers accepted water distributional principles and details shares on a provincial and seasonal basis (Figure 2a,b) and Paragraph 4 is used to balance supplies above Paragraph 2 from floods and future storages. The precise interpretation and subsequent practical implementation of the Accord paragraphs are not documented [20,21] and extensive consultation with Indus River System Authority (IRSA) operators to elicit these operational rules was required for this modelling study. This component is essential for any simulation of allocation and subsequent distribution of water within the IBIS and is outlined below.…”

Section: Water Inflow Forecast Allocation and Sharing Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Water security issues in the basin include changing resource availability [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13], growth in demand from competing users [14][15][16][17][18] and the loss of storage capacity through sedimentation [4,19]. The 2012 Friends of Democratic Pakistan Water Sector Task Force report [20] highlighted the need to build the knowledge and capacity to manage the current and future water security needs of Pakistan, with Young, et al [21] highlighting the need to model the system accurately and transparently as a means to better manage water security risks. This study focusses on modelling both the physical and water-sharing arrangements of the IBIS to investigate the potential impacts on seasonal water supply security resulting from the loss of storage capacity through reservoir sedimentation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Development of the Indus River System Model to Evaluate Reservoir Sedimentation Impacts on Water Security in Pakistan

Podger

Ahmad

et al. 2021

Water

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Pakistan’s society and economy are highly dependent on the surface and groundwater resources of the Indus River basin. This paper describes the development and implementation of a daily Indus River System Model (IRSM) for the Pakistan Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) to examine the potential impact of reservoir sedimentation on provincial water security. The model considers both the physical and management characteristics of the system. The model’s performance in replicating provincial allocation ratios is within 0.1% on average and the modeling of water flow at barrages and delivered to irrigation canal commands is in agreement with recorded data (major barrage NSE 0.7). The average maximum volumetric error for the Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs are respectively 5.2% and 8.8% of mean annual inflow. The model showed that a 2.3 km3 reduction in storage volume since 1990 equates to approximately 1.3 km3 i.e., a 4–5% reduction in irrigation deliveries, respectively, for Punjab and Sindh in the dry (Rabi) season. This decline indicates that without further augmentation of system storage, the Rabi season supplies will continue to be further impacted in the future. This paper demonstrates the suitability of IRSM for exploring long term planning and operational rules and the associated impacts on water, food and energy security in Pakistan.

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Section: Water Inflow Forecast Allocation and Sharing Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of the Indus River System Model to Evaluate Reservoir Sedimentation Impacts on Water Security in Pakistan

Podger

Ahmad

et al. 2021

Water

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“…This is a plan to "end poverty in all its forms" and to "shift the world to a sustainable and resilient path". SDG 6-Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all-considers not just water supply and sanitation services, but also water scarcity and water use efficiency, water quality and wastewater treatment, water ecosystems, as well as institutional aspects of water resources management (including IWRM implementation) and cooperation [30]. Other aspects of water security (such as water-related disasters) are captured by other SDGs.…”

Section: Water Security As An Objective For Iwrmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disruptive Technologies for Improving Water Security in Large River Basins

Harshadeep

Young

2020

Water

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Large river basins present significant challenges for water resource planning and management. They typically traverse a wide range of hydroclimatic regimes, are characterized by complex and variable hydrology, and span multiple jurisdictions with diverse water demands and values. They are often data-poor and in many developing economies are characterized by weak water governance. Rapid global change is seeing significant changes to the pressures on the water resources of large basins, exacerbating the challenge of sustainable water management. Diverse technologies have long supported water resource planning and development, from data collection, analytics, simulation, to decision-making, and real-time operations. In the last two decades however, a rapid increase in the range, capability, and accessibility of new technologies, coupled with large reductions in cost, mean there are increasing opportunities for emerging technologies to significantly “disrupt” traditional approaches to water resources management. In this paper, we consider the application of ‘disruptive technologies’ in water resources management in large river basins, through a lens of improving water security. We discuss the role of different actors and institutions for water management considering a range of emerging disruptive technologies. We consider the risks and benefits associated with the use of these technologies and discuss the barriers to their widespread adoption. We obverse a positive trend away from the reliance solely on centralized government institutions and traditional modeling for the collection and analysis of data, towards a more open and dynamic ‘data and knowledge ecosystem’ that draws upon data services at different levels (global to local) to support water planning and operations. We expect that technological advances and cost reductions will accelerate, fueling increased incremental adoption of new technologies in water resources planning and management. Large-basin analytics could become virtually free for users with global, regional, and national development agencies absorbing the costs of development and any subscription services for end users (e.g., irrigators) to help improve water management at user level and improve economic productivity. Collectively, these changes can help to ‘democratize’ water management through improved access to data and information. However, disruptive technologies can also be deployed in top-down or centralized processes, and so their use is sometimes contested or misunderstood. Increased attention therefore needs to be given to ensuring equity in technology access, and to strengthening the governance context for technology deployment. Widespread adoption of disruptive technologies will require adjustments to how water professionals are trained, increased adaptiveness in water resources planning and operations, and careful consideration of privacy and cybersecurity issues.

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“…Pakistan's water resources are already highly stressed and will become increasingly so with projected population changes [1]. Without serious demand management and reform, and if the climate warms rapidly, water demand could increase by nearly 60 percent by 2047 [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Indus River is the largest river of Pakistan. Its total length is 3180 km, and basin area 1,165,000 km 2 . It originates in the Tibetan Plateau, runs south, and discharges into the Arabian Sea.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of the River Flow Synchronicity in the Upper Indus River Basin Using Copula Functions

et al. 2020

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In this study, on the basis of the maximum and mean annual values of flows, dependencies between flows recorded in seven water gauges located in the upper part of the Indus River Basin (IRB) in Pakistan were analyzed. First, the non-parametric Mann–Kendall (M–K) test was used to detect trends in the flows. Next, the Pearson’s correlation coefficient was applied. Then, the selected copulas were used to find joint distributions of the studied time series. In the next stage, the degrees of synchronous and asynchronous occurrence of, respectively, the annual maximum (AMAXF) and mean annual flows (MAF) were calculated. The study revealed that correlations between the flows in selected gauge stations were very strong and statistically significant. These results were confirmed by the synchronicity analysis carried out with the help of the copula functions. The highest relationship was detected in the case of gauges Besham Qila and Kachura on the Indus mainstream, while the lowest was detected in gauges Besham Qila and Naltar on the Naltar River. These findings can be of high practical value in the field of sustainable water resource management, including for flood protection, agricultural water supply, reservoir water storage, and hydropower generation in the IRB.

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Pakistan

Cited by 75 publications

References 0 publications

Development of the Indus River System Model to Evaluate Reservoir Sedimentation Impacts on Water Security in Pakistan

Development of the Indus River System Model to Evaluate Reservoir Sedimentation Impacts on Water Security in Pakistan

Disruptive Technologies for Improving Water Security in Large River Basins

Estimation of the River Flow Synchronicity in the Upper Indus River Basin Using Copula Functions

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