Overlooked impacts of electricity expansion optimisation modelling: The life cycle side of the story

Abstract

a b s t r a c tThis work evaluates implications of incorporating LCA-GHG (life cycle assessment of GHG emissions) into the optimisation of the power generation mix of Brazil through 2050, under baseline and low-carbon scenarios. Furthermore, this work assesses the impacts of enacting a tax on LCA-GHG emissions as a strategy to mitigate climate change. To this end, a model that integrates regional life cycle data with optimised energy scenarios was developed using the MESSAGE-Brazil integrated model. Following a baseline trend, the power sector in Brazil would increasingly rely on conventional coal technologies. GHG emissions from the power sector in 2050 are expected to increase 15-fold. When enacting a tax on directcarbon emissions, advanced coal and onshore wind technologies become competitive. GHG emissions peak at 2025 and decrease afterwards, reaching an emission level 40% lower in 2050 than that of 2010. However, if impacts were evaluated through the entire life cycle of power supply systems, LCA-GHG emissions would be 50% higher in 2050 than in 2010. This is due to loads associated with the construction of plant infrastructures and extraction and processing of fossil fuel resources. Thus, taxes might not be as effective in tackling GHG emissions as shown by past studies, if they are only applied to direct emissions.

100% Renewable Energy Supply for Brazil—The Role of Sector Coupling and Regional Development

“…Their model provides a very detailed representation of sectoral energy demands, but is limited in its temporal resolution. The role of enhanced sector coupling has also been studied to some degree in [25,31].…”

Prospective Analysis of Life-Cycle Indicators through Endogenous Integration into a National Power Generation Model

“…The NEEDS project [7] followed a soft-linking approach for the inclusion of the external costs associated with life-cycle emissions of power generation technologies in a TIMES model, an optimisation-based ESM framework. Moreover, Portugal-Pereira et al [22] recently presented a study on the integration of life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of power generation technologies in Brazil into MESSAGE, a global ESM framework. In the present article, a soft-linking approach is followed to assess the evolution of a set of life-cycle indicators of the Spanish electricity production mix (beyond the mere inclusion of cumulative emissions).…”

Interactions between global climate change strategies and local air pollution: lessons learnt from the expansion of the power sector in Brazil

“…Thus, upstream activities have been excluded from the analysis. Although the evaluation of the entire life cycle of power generation systems is essential to measure the overall environmental impacts of the power sector, as highlighted by Portugal Portugal-Pereira et al (2016), this work compares impacts of climate mitigation scenarios on LAP. Thus, including life cycle impacts of power generation scenarios would The inventory assessed three GHGs and 19 airborne pollutants.…”

“…3 Results and discussion 3.1 GHG emissions Figure 3 illustrates the GHG emissions from power generation scenarios, showing that in the absence of climate policies, power sector GHG emissions would increase fourfold, rising from (Lima et al 2015;Portugal-Pereira et al 2016). Although Brazil does not have an updated governmental Energy Strategy up to 2050, under the government's 10-year Strategic Energy Plan there is indication for 10.5 GW expansion of NG and coal thermal power plant capacity (EPE 2015).…”