overconfidence

Are some entrepreneurs more overconfident than others?

“…[decision] heuristics are quite useful, but sometimes they lead to severe and systematic errorsQ (p. 1124). Much research on decision making in organizations has emphasized the latter half of this statement; that is, the potential for cognitive shortcuts to lead to negative decision outcomes (e.g., Bazerman, 1994;Russo and Schoemaker, 1992). However, it should not be forgotten that these shortcuts also provide a useful means of coping with the pressures imposed by large quantities of information and tight time constraints.…”

Beliefs about overconfidence

“…A second possibility to measure overconfidence is the confidence interval estimation method. Subjects state confidence intervals that should contain the true value in, e.g., 90% of the cases (see, e.g., Lichtenstein et al 1982;Russo and Schoemaker 1992). The aforementioned studies find that most people state too narrow confidence intervals.…”

The Evidence on Emerging Issues: Providing Patient Care in the Absence of Evidence

“…In other words, we need knowledge, but we also need metaknowledge or knowledge in context. 5 Metaknowledge is still primarily the domain of the doctor.…”

“…In medicine, aviation, business management, investment banking, and other fields, catastrophic failures are routinely ascribed to human factors and overconfidence. 5 This article started with the case of Eunice, a patient in pain. Pain is a common enough occurrence in dentistry, but did your diagnosis and level of confidence change at any of the 6 decision nodes?…”