Outlook on a Worldwide Forest Transition

Pagnutti, Chris; Bauch, Chris T.; Anand, Madhur

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0075890

Cited by 38 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Other processes can also influence the relationship between public opinion and forest cover. For instance, forest transitions can also be caused simply by rising crop yields requiring less clearing of forested areas (67). Our model does not explicitly capture the influence of institutions such as large organizations that can significantly influence dynamics in ways that merit mechanistic modeling (17).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems

Bauch

Sigdel

Pharaon

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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133

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In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system's dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human-environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent environment model uncoupled from the human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be "doomed to criticality": Strategic human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research.critical transitions | criticality | social-ecological systems | human-and-natural systems | early warning signal

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems

Bauch

Sigdel

Pharaon

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

Self Cite

133

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“…Conversion of natural areas to agricultural use is the leading cause of forest loss globally. Natural grassland areas are under even greater threat (24). Two papers in this issue examine the power of applying new monitoring tools and modeling approaches to conserve biodiversity in agriculturally dominated ecosystems.…”

Section: Monitoring and Modeling Human-environment Feedbacks For Ecolmentioning

confidence: 99%

Human–environment interactions in population and ecosystem health

Galvani

Bauch

Anand

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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102

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“…With some exceptions [31,32,43,50], previous research on resource-limited human population growth has focused on single population dynamics. However, multi-population interactions through trading, raiding and immigration are an inescapable feature of the world's human metapopulation dynamic, and can have significant impacts on ecosystems and the natural resources they provide [51]. The literature on multi-population interactions has explored metapopulation models involving migration of individuals between patches [44], or competing populations conflicting and bargaining over a common resource [31,32].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interconnections Accelerate Collapse in a Socio-Ecological Metapopulation

2019

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Over-exploitation of natural resources can have profound effects on both ecosystems and their resident human populations. Simple theoretical models of the dynamics of a population of human harvesters and the abundance of a natural resource being harvested have been studied previously, but relatively few models consider the effect of metapopulation structure (i.e., a population distributed across discrete patches). Here we analyze a socio-ecological metapopulation model based on an existing single-population model used to study persistence and collapse in human populations. Resources grow logistically on each patch. Each population harvests resources on its own patch to support population growth, but can also harvest resources from other patches when their own patch resources become scarce. We show that when populations are allowed to harvest resources from other patches, the peak population size is higher, but subsequent population collapse is significantly accelerated and across a broader parameter regime. As the number of patches in the metapopulation increases, collapse is more sudden, more severe, and occurs sooner. These effects persist under scenarios of asymmetry and inequality between patches. Our model makes simplifying assumptions in order to facilitate insight and understanding of model dynamics. However, the robustness of the model prediction suggests that more sophisticated models should be developed to ascertain the impact of metapopulation structure on socio-ecological sustainability.

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Outlook on a Worldwide Forest Transition

Cited by 38 publications

References 25 publications

Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems

Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems

Human–environment interactions in population and ecosystem health

Interconnections Accelerate Collapse in a Socio-Ecological Metapopulation

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