Outcome expectancy liking: A self-generated, self-coded measure predicts adolescent substance use trajectories.

Abstract

This study tested the predictive validity of a novel, brief, and easy-to-use self-report measure of expectancies and their subjective values for alcohol and marijuana use. Canadian students in Grades 7 to 11 were administered paper-and-pencil questionnaires once per year for 3 consecutive years (Krank et al., 2011). As part of the questionnaire, participants completed an outcome expectancy measure where they were asked to list 3 or 4 things they expected would happen if they used a particular substance (i.e., alcohol, marijuana) and to indicate for each whether they would or would not like this outcome. "Liking" outcomes were coded as +1, "not like" as -1, and summed to obtain an outcome expectancy liking (OEL) sum for each participant and each substance. Participants also completed substance use behavior questions for alcohol and marijuana. Multilevel modeling demonstrated that OEL sum significantly predicted the intercept and slope of substance use trajectories by participants, even when demographic variables were controlled. For both alcohol and marijuana, multilevel modeling analyses indicated that a more positive OEL sum for a substance in the first year of the study were more likely to have tried that substance earlier (intercept) and were more likely to escalate their use at a greater rate over time (slope). The results complement the predictive validity found with other direct and indirect measures of substance use associations. The outcome expectancy liking task is a simple and unobtrusive method for identifying adolescents who are at risk for early substance abuse.

Hypothetical evaluations of positive and negative alcohol consequences in adolescents across various levels of drinking experience.

“…As other research has shown, the opposite direction of effect is also of relevance - evaluating negative outcomes of drinking less negatively may be associated with subsequent increases in drinking (Fulton et al, 2012). Thus, repeated measures of evaluations and analytic methods such as cross-lagged panel models are necessary to examine this reciprocal process.…”

“…Second, we categorized certain outcomes as “negative” and “positive” a priori , asking students to rate how bothersome and enjoyable, respectively, they thought those consequences would be if experienced. However, prior research highlights that some negative consequences are perceived positively by drinkers (Fulton et al, 2012; Mallett et al, 2008). Future research should assess evaluations in a more unbiased manner.…”

“…In one study, Canadian adolescents (7 th –9 th grade) were asked to list the three or four most important things that would happen if they used alcohol, and to indicate for each outcome whether they would like it or not (hypothetical evaluations; Fulton, Krank, & Stewart, 2012). Similar to studies conducted among college students, some “negative” outcomes were deemed likeable by a subset of participants (e.g., impact on cognitive performance, 17%; intoxication, 40%).…”

Alcohol and Marijuana Use in Middle School: Comparing Solitary and Social-Only Users

“…These types of positive expectancies are typically associated with escalated substance use over time (e.g., 29, 30) and may help explain the higher risk of problematic use among solitary users as they transition to young adulthood. The difference between solitary and social-only users in their positive expectancies is consistent with a few prior studies (e.g., 13, 14).…”

Eating Disorders, Addictions and Substance Use Disorders

“…Specifically, expectancies regarding the possible function of engaging in the use of substances at any given point in time have been shown to be a significant predictor of substance use episodes (Fisher, Smith, Anderson, & Flory, 2003;Fulton, Krank, & Stewart, 2012). Much research in ED has focused on cognitions surrounding eating, shape, and weight concerns.…”