Option of Methodological and Technological Bases of Development, Evaluation and Forecast the Efficiency of Real Objects' and Processes' Mathematical Models

Abstract

One of the variants of the basic concepts of methodology and technology for the development of real objects’ and processes’ mathematical models and the assessment of the expected efficiency of these models, as well as the ratio and interconnection of the methodology concepts and the contradictions of modeling, which are one of the reasons for failures in the development of models, are presented. The technological foundations of the obviously useful models development with a simultaneous forecast of their effectiveness indicators values are systematized: reliability, efficiency, completeness of modeling, the usefulness of the developed model relative to the existing one and in comparison with the ideal model. An expression is given for predicting the time expense on developing a model.

Inner Law and Models for Forecasting the Results of Air Defense Battle

“…The use of special modeling technology elements [6] made it possible to identify the most essential properties and find inner low Eq. (10) of a real AAM grouping's air defense battle.…”

“…1 No 40), which allows using this law for the purposes of decisionmaking practice. The use of this technology [6] also made it possible to select a mathematical apparatus that is statistically adequate to the battle processes and with the help of which it became possible to build a model of a single SAM system air defense battle and a model of fight off the MAA air blow by an AAM grouping.…”

“…To achieve the noted goal, we have used elements of a special technology for models' development [6] and introduced a system of notations (Nomenclature) for variables, which we will use in further reasoning.…”

“…Let us use the main ideas of [6] and turn to the relative variables of the separate air defense battles number and the casualties of the parties:…”

“…The adequacy of the battle model is possible [6] only when choosing a mathematical apparatus that corresponds to the laws of distribution of its main random parameters that determine the development of the battle -the intervals between the entry of the MAA into the fire zone (Tab. 1, column 2, ∆tMAA.i = tst.i+1 -tst.i) and the duration of the SAM systems firing cycle (Tab.…”