Inner Law and Models for Forecasting the Results of Air Defense Battle

Abstract

The purpose of the article was to find the inner properties and regularities of anti-aircraft missile grouping’s air defense battle, and based on these regularities to develop and evaluate the adequacy of models as tools for forecasting the results of a battle. To achieve the goal, an example of a real battle and a special model development method were used. The method made it possible to identify the main properties and the inner law of battle, to select a statistically valid mathematical modeling tool in the class of Markov processes with continuous time and discrete states, to develop the desired models with an analytical representation of the inner law of battle, to check their adequacy and to evaluate the accuracy of forecasting by models using the example of a real air defense battle.