Optimal temperature zone for the dispersal of COVID-19

Huang, Zhongwei; Huang, Jianping; Gu, Qiang; Du, Pengcheng; Liang, Hongbin; Dong, Qin

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139487

Cited by 124 publications

(117 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…The incidence of COVID-19 reportedly declined with increasing temperature in the United States (Sehra et al, 2020) and China (Shi et al, 2020). The reported peak incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in a range of 5°C-15°C with humidity range of 3-10 g/m 3 further highlights the niche of higher viral infection rates (Huang et al, 2020). However, a consensus is yet to be reached on this topic, because a further analysis incorporating meteorological data from different Chinese cities found that both temperature and UV radiation were not significantly associated with viral transmission (Yao et al, 2020).…”

Section: Other Environmental Factorsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Lower Incidence of COVID-19 at High Altitude: Facts and Confounders

Pun

Turner

Strapazzon

et al. 2020

High Altitude Medicine & Biology

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The rapid transmission, increased morbidity, and mortality of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has exhausted many health care systems and the global economy. Large variations in COVID-19 prevalence and incidence have been reported across and within many countries worldwide; however, this remains poorly understood. The variability and susceptibility across the world have been mainly attributed to differing socioeconomic status, burden of chronic diseases, access to health care, strength of health care systems, and early or late adoption of control measures. Environmental factors such as pollution, ambient temperature, humidity, and seasonal weather patterns at different latitudes may influence how severe the pandemic is and the incidence of infection in any part of the world. In addition, recent epidemiological data have been used to propose that altitude of residence may not only influence those environmental features considered key to lesser viral transmission, but also susceptibility to more severe forms of COVID-19 through hypoxic-hypobaria driven genomic or nongenomic adaptations specific to high-altitude populations. In this review, we critically examine these factors and attempt to determine based upon available scientific and epidemiological data whether living in high-altitude regions might be protective against COVID-19 as recent publications have claimed.

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Section: Other Environmental Factorsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Lower Incidence of COVID-19 at High Altitude: Facts and Confounders

Pun

Turner

Strapazzon

et al. 2020

High Altitude Medicine & Biology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Recent studies have confirmed the effect of temperature and relative humidity on morbidity rates in Brazil [22,25] and the morbidity/mortality rates in Japan [26]. Studies with wider scopes include global data analysis-discussion on how temperature and humidity are correlated with the infection and fatality rates of the COVID-19 pandemic [27,28]. Both studies focus on the morbidity and mortality rates in their respective study area and globally, but neither of them discusses the effect of environmental factors on the duration of COVID-19, which is an essential factor for policymaking.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Influence of Absolute Humidity, Temperature and Population Density on COVID-19 Spread and Decay Durations: Multi-Prefecture Study in Japan

Rashed

Kodera

Gómez-Tames

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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This study analyzed the spread and decay durations of the COVID-19 pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. During the pandemic, affordable healthcare was widely available in Japan and the medical system did not suffer a collapse, making accurate comparisons between prefectures possible. For the 16 prefectures included in this study that had daily maximum confirmed cases exceeding ten, the number of daily confirmed cases follow bell-shape or log-normal distribution in most prefectures. A good correlation was observed between the spread and decay durations. However, some exceptions were observed in areas where travelers returned from foreign countries, which were defined as the origins of infection clusters. Excluding these prefectures, the population density was shown to be a major factor, affecting the spread and decay patterns, with R2 = 0.39 (p < 0.05) and 0.42 (p < 0.05), respectively, approximately corresponding to social distancing. The maximum absolute humidity was found to affect the decay duration normalized by the population density (R2 > 0.36, p < 0.05). Our findings indicate that the estimated pandemic spread duration, based on the multivariate analysis of maximum absolute humidity, ambient temperature, and population density (adjusted R2 = 0.53, p-value < 0.05), could prove useful for intervention planning during potential future pandemics, including a second COVID-19 outbreak.

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“…pollution were investigated using non-linear Spearman and Kendall rank correlation tests, which have also employed in 6 . The Spearman rank correlation non-parametric test r s is described as follows:…”

Section: Statistical Approaches Correlations Between Covid-19 Pandemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of meteorological conditions and air pollution on COVID-19 pandemic transmission in Italy

Lolli

Chen

Wang

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

131

111

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Italy was the first, among all the European countries, to be strongly hit by the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (Sars-CoV-2). The virus, proven to be very contagious, infected more than 9 million people worldwide (in June 2020). Nevertheless, it is not clear the role of air pollution and meteorological conditions on virus transmission. In this study, we quantitatively assessed how the meteorological and air quality parameters are correlated to the COVID-19 transmission in two large metropolitan areas in Northern Italy as Milan and Florence and in the autonomous province of Trento. Milan, capital of Lombardy region, it is considered the epicenter of the virus outbreak in Italy. Our main findings highlight that temperature and humidity related variables are negatively correlated to the virus transmission, whereas air pollution (PM2.5) shows a positive correlation (at lesser degree). In other words, COVID-19 pandemic transmission prefers dry and cool environmental conditions, as well as polluted air. For those reasons, the virus might easier spread in unfiltered air-conditioned indoor environments. Those results will be supporting decision makers to contain new possible outbreaks.

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Optimal temperature zone for the dispersal of COVID-19

Cited by 124 publications

References 18 publications

Lower Incidence of COVID-19 at High Altitude: Facts and Confounders

Lower Incidence of COVID-19 at High Altitude: Facts and Confounders

Influence of Absolute Humidity, Temperature and Population Density on COVID-19 Spread and Decay Durations: Multi-Prefecture Study in Japan

Impact of meteorological conditions and air pollution on COVID-19 pandemic transmission in Italy

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