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This study analyzed the morbidity and mortality rates of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. Under the constraint that daily maximum confirmed deaths and daily maximum cases should exceed 4 and 10, respectively, 14 prefectures were included, and cofactors affecting the morbidity and mortality rates were evaluated. In particular, the number of confirmed deaths was assessed, excluding cases of nosocomial infections and nursing home patients. The correlations between the morbidity and mortality rates and population density were statistically significant (p-value < 0.05). In addition, the percentage of elderly population was also found to be non-negligible. Among weather parameters, the maximum temperature and absolute humidity averaged over the duration were found to be in modest correlation with the morbidity and mortality rates. Lower morbidity and mortality rates were observed for higher temperature and absolute humidity. Multivariate linear regression considering these factors showed that the adjusted determination coefficient for the confirmed cases was 0.693 in terms of population density, elderly percentage, and maximum absolute humidity (p-value < 0.01). These findings could be useful for intervention planning during future pandemics, including a potential second COVID-19 outbreak.

BackgroundTwo international guidelines/standards for human protection from electromagnetic fields define the specific absorption rate (SAR) averaged over 10 g of tissue as a metric for protection against localized radio frequency field exposure due to portable devices operating below 3–10 GHz. Temperature elevation is suggested to be a dominant effect for exposure at frequencies higher than 100 kHz. No previous studies have evaluated temperature elevation in the human head for local exposure considering thermoregulation. This study aims to discuss the temperature elevation in a human head model considering vasodilation, to discuss the conservativeness of the current limit.MethodsThis study computes the temperature elevations in an anatomical human head model exposed to radiation from a dipole antenna and truncated plane waves at 300 MHz–10GHz. The SARs in the human model are first computed using a finite-difference time-domain method. The temperature elevation is calculated by solving the bioheat transfer equation by considering the thermoregulation that simulates the vasodilation.ResultsThe maximum temperature elevation in the brain appeared around its periphery. At exposures with higher intensity, the temperature elevation became larger and reached around 40 °C at the peak SAR of 100 W/kg, and became lower at higher frequencies. The temperature elevation in the brain at the current limit of 10 W/kg is at most 0.93 °C. The effect of vasodilation became notable for tissue temperature elevations higher than 1–2 °C and for an SAR of 10 W/kg. The temperature at the periphery was below the basal brain temperature (37 °C).ConclusionsThe temperature elevation under the current guideline for occupational exposure is within the ranges of brain temperature variability for environmental changes in daily life. The effect of vasodilation is significant, especially at higher frequencies where skin temperature elevation is dominant.

Due to the difficulty of the specific absorption rate (SAR) measurement in an actual human body for electromagnetic radio-frequency (RF) exposure, in various compliance assessment procedures the incident electric field or power density is being used as a reference level, which should never yield a larger whole-body average SAR than the basic safety limit. The relationship between the reference level and the whole-body average SAR, however, was established mainly based on numerical calculations for highly simplified human modelling dozens of years ago. Its validity is being questioned by the latest calculation results. In verifying the validity of the reference level with respect to the basic SAR limit for RF exposure, it is essential to have a high accuracy of human modelling and numerical code. In this study, we made a detailed error analysis in the whole-body average SAR calculation for the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method in conjunction with the perfectly matched layer (PML) absorbing boundaries. We derived a basic rule for the PML employment based on a dielectric sphere and the Mie theory solution. We then attempted to clarify to what extent the whole-body average SAR may reach using an anatomically based Japanese adult model and a scaled child model. The results show that the whole-body average SAR under the ICNIRP reference level exceeds the basic safety limit nearly 30% for the child model both in the resonance frequency and 2 GHz band.

This study analyzed the spread and decay durations of the COVID-19 pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. During the pandemic, affordable healthcare was widely available in Japan and the medical system did not suffer a collapse, making accurate comparisons between prefectures possible. For the 16 prefectures included in this study that had daily maximum confirmed cases exceeding ten, the number of daily confirmed cases follow bell-shape or log-normal distribution in most prefectures. A good correlation was observed between the spread and decay durations. However, some exceptions were observed in areas where travelers returned from foreign countries, which were defined as the origins of infection clusters. Excluding these prefectures, the population density was shown to be a major factor, affecting the spread and decay patterns, with R2 = 0.39 (p < 0.05) and 0.42 (p < 0.05), respectively, approximately corresponding to social distancing. The maximum absolute humidity was found to affect the decay duration normalized by the population density (R2 > 0.36, p < 0.05). Our findings indicate that the estimated pandemic spread duration, based on the multivariate analysis of maximum absolute humidity, ambient temperature, and population density (adjusted R2 = 0.53, p-value < 0.05), could prove useful for intervention planning during potential future pandemics, including a second COVID-19 outbreak.

Electromagnetic (EM) absorption of the human body for far-field exposure at the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) reference level has two peaks in the resonance frequency and GHz regions. Dominant factors influencing whole-body average specific absorption rate (SAR) in these two frequency regions have not yet been revealed sufficiently. The main purpose of this study is to clarify the dominant factors influencing EM power absorption in terms of whole-body average SAR in an anatomically based model compared with those in a homogeneous anthropomorphic model and corresponding cuboid models. Computational results show that EM absorption peak in the resonance frequency region greatly depends on the electric properties of tissue, while the peak in the GHz region is affected mainly by the surface area of the model.

A resurgence of COVID-19-positive cases has been observed in many countries in the latter half of 2021. The primary reasons for this resurgence are the waning immunity of vaccination after the second dose of vaccination and the changes in public behavior due to temporal convergence. The vaccination effectiveness for the omicron and delta variants has been reported from some countries, but it is still unclear for several other regions worldwide. Here, we numerically derived the effectiveness of vaccination for infection protection in individuals and populations against viral variants for the entire Japanese population (126 million). The waning immunity of vaccination for the delta variant of Japanese individuals was 93.8% (95% CI: 93.1–94.6%) among individuals <65 years of age and 95.0% (95% CI: 95.6–96.9%) among individuals ≥65 years of age. We found that waning immunity of vaccination in individuals >65 years of age was lower than in those <65 years of age, which may be attributable to human behavior and a higher vaccination rate among individuals >65 years of age. From the reported data of 25,187 positive cases with confirmed omicron variant in Tokyo in January 2022, the effectiveness of vaccination was also estimated at 62.1% (95% CI: 48–66%) compared to that of the delta variant. Derived effectiveness of vaccination would be useful to discuss the vaccination strategy for the booster shot, as well as the status of herd immunity.

International guidelines/standards for human protection from electromagnetic fields have been revised recently, especially for frequencies above 6 GHz where new wireless communication systems have been deployed. Above this frequency a new physical quantity 'absorbed/epithelial power density' has been adopted as a dose metric. Then, the permissible level of external field strength/power density is derived for practical assessment. In addition, a new physical quantity, fluence or absorbed energy density, is introduced for protection from brief pulses (especially for shorter than 10 s). These limits were explicitly designed to avoid excessive increases in tissue temperature, based on electromagnetic and thermal modeling studies but supported by experimental data where available. This paper reviews the studies on the computational modeling/dosimetry which are related to the revision of the guidelines/standards. The comparisons with experimental data as well as an analytic solution are also been presented. Future research needs and additional comments on the revision will also be mentioned.